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South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion Sept 2019 onwards


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Dunstable got a good snow cover but melted in the afternoon. Hills around the area did ok. I drove to the highest point in the Chiltrens to have my snow fix. Some photos from Wendover Wood this mornin

Shower cloud lit up nicely by the low sun earlier this evening north of Heathrow where I work.

Nice bit of snow here this morning, so that means it won’t go down as one of the worst winters I can remember but only by the skin of its teeth . Photos below ?

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Much brighter this morning, still a lot of cloud but the low level stuff has broken up in a similar way to further south yesterday.

Again there will be a serious risk of some areas receiving high rainfall totals today as slow moving showers develop before a more organised area of rain moves north out of France. Temperatures will probably be a bit more uniform over the region (20-25c depending on sunshine amounts).

Edited by Captain Shortwave
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Morning all,

From a still, very humid S.E.London.

Our local recording Station of London City Airport, a little way to the North of here, was reporting a Temp of 19c, and a Dew Point of 18c. This is very similar to this time, Yesterday Morning.

Think we just missed those torrential Thundery downpours that Daniel refers to, in the previous Post.

Think we could well see more of our Region getting in on the act, in the next few Days.

With plenty of "juice" still in the Atmosphere, our area looks prone to a visit from some big Showers/T/Storms, with accompanying large Rainfall totals.

At least this seems to have been the message, from some Beatnik fella, that has joined the BBC Forecasting Team:

image.thumb.png.0e5ec66279f64a290e9636228b941d43.png

I can't be too harsh on our Tomasz, a great character with a lot of personality, and a fine Christian name, to boot!!!

Hope you all have a great Sunday, and take care if that heavy "stuff", comes along. It could get quite nasty.

Regards,

Tom :hi:

Edited by TomSE12
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Whilst I've enjoyed the sun, heat and storms of the last week or more, the weather seems stuck in a bit of a rut atm and personally speaking I'm looking forward to the change in weather type forecast for the end of the coming week with fresher, windier weather off the Atlantic. Here's the GFS take on 500hPa, wind and rain for next Friday 21st Aug:

1825394334_GFS500Fri21Aug.thumb.png.796b178eaeae0fc981ad538ac6f5737f.png440911191_GFSWind21Aug.thumb.png.99d1b6a9c7b693f15307c5b13bc29307.png600911981_GFSPrecip21Aug.thumb.png.59e5960e58d99cbc8851c183897eea21.png

Back to yesterday and it was a funny old day with a mix of grey, drizzly drabness and then heavy thundery rain breaking out for some later. Here's how the Netweather hi res radar calculated the rainfall totals and it confirms the storms in North Kent, London area and Essex:

2098245275_NetwxRainfallTotalSat15Aug.thumb.png.2730185a3644d879023eb8a873037fdb.png

Finally, what's likely for today? Arome model suggests a band of heavy, thundery showers moving up through the Region. Here's the sequence from 14.00 until 22.00:

anim_zgp1.gif

Charts from Meteociel: http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/

 

Edited by Blessed Weather
Chart in wrong place - corrected
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26 minutes ago, Blessed Weather said:

Whilst I've enjoyed the sun, heat and storms of the last week or more, the weather seems stuck in a bit of a rut atm and personally speaking I'm looking forward to the change in weather type forecast for the end of the coming week with fresher, windier weather off the Atlantic. Here's the GFS take on 500hPa, wind and rain for next Friday 21st Aug:

1825394334_GFS500Fri21Aug.thumb.png.796b178eaeae0fc981ad538ac6f5737f.png440911191_GFSWind21Aug.thumb.png.99d1b6a9c7b693f15307c5b13bc29307.png600911981_GFSPrecip21Aug.thumb.png.59e5960e58d99cbc8851c183897eea21.png

Back to yesterday and it was a funny old day with a mix of grey, drizzly drabness and then heavy thundery rain breaking out for some later. Here's how the Netweather hi res radar calculated the rainfall totals and it confirms the storms in North Kent, London area and Essex:

2098245275_NetwxRainfallTotalSat15Aug.thumb.png.2730185a3644d879023eb8a873037fdb.png

Finally, what's likely for today? Arome model suggests a band of heavy, thundery showers moving up through the Region. Here's the sequence from 14.00 until 22.00:

anim_zgp1.gif

Charts from Meteociel: http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/

 

However will the fresher weather actually  be fresher with moist humid south westerlies at 23/24c.

LIkely to be just as bad but a least a fair breeze.

That rain band/showers you showed on Arome is nothing like the MO radar forecast.

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15 minutes ago, stainesbloke said:

Probably best to take this with a truck load of salt, but interesting, nevertheless....fingers crossed

 

D12A2EDC-0EC1-4E15-A5ED-2543D38D7ECE.png

We can but hope ... we've been under a thunderstorm warning every day for 5 days here but barely a drop of rain and no real thunder other than the occasional, distant sky-mumble.

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Latest from Dan 

http://convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2020-08-16&fbclid=IwAR2XI2C93bsRCfOK_JZRiMQPea-gAL6S_Li2CJYUyGIOXaxJEeJeHGBJSuk

Not sure I can see this coming off tbh as we're once again plagued by low cloud and clag. 

I haven't seen a convective forecast for some time which pays off properly for the east...... (watch this turn into a reverse psychology failure. Again.)

 

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This weather really go and do one.

Its been 19/20c for about 48 hours now, its foul damp ish humid cloudy we missed almost all of the heavy rain/showers/thunderstorms bar yesterday morning for a bit.

Noticed Writtle had 50mm rain yesterday, not here.

Much prefer the good old fashioned hot weather followed by total breakdown with fresher weather coming in behind and then maybe starting up again, but this yuuukkkkkk

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Been up since half 4 with seriously unwell pooch.  Cleaning up hasn’t been helped by the humidity. Still least it’s not 30c+ anymore. Really hope we get loads of rain and storms today, my garden needs help with the rinsing down of the artificial grass 🤢

Misty murky start here, on a drive up the A12 on a medicine dash, was quite foggy in patches too. Looking forward to a nice breeze next week, hopefully blow this muggyness away 🤞 

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11 minutes ago, shackforce said:

We can but hope ... we've been under a thunderstorm warning every day for 5 days here but barely a drop of rain and no real thunder other than the occasional, distant sky-mumble.

Yes, it’s been great that other parts of the UK have seen some epic storms, especially areas that very rarely see them. But what does it take to get something major in the SE, these days? Today looks interesting, hopefully the clag will clear soon...

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1 hour ago, Blazerblue said:

Been up since half 4 with seriously unwell pooch.  Cleaning up hasn’t been helped by the humidity. Still least it’s not 30c+ anymore. Really hope we get loads of rain and storms today, my garden needs help with the rinsing down of the artificial grass 🤢

Misty murky start here, on a drive up the A12 on a medicine dash, was quite foggy in patches too. Looking forward to a nice breeze next week, hopefully blow this muggyness away 🤞 

Oh dear 😕, hope it's just a passing bug and he/she will be much improved by tomorrow x

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Hope so @Norfolk Sheep, thanks.

Suns come out here and the heat/humidity is rising (or at least feels even more oppressive if that’s possible) hope it sparks something interesting today, preferably not just grow the fun for others further away. Sounds selfish, but I think this area deserves some good storm action. 🤞🤞

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Just give me a convective downpour. I'll take that at this point, Anything to beat this tedium

Had absolutely nothing but a distant rumble since this spell started. Missed out yesterday as a shower trundled past me and hit Canterbury flooding the cricket ground. The day before Maidstone got hammered! 

Hopefully today will be the day but not too optimistic tbh. Looks like a mainly north of London affair

 

 

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Just now, Blazerblue said:

Hope so @Norfolk Sheep, thanks.

Suns come out here and the heat/humidity is rising (or at least feels even more oppressive if that’s possible) hope it sparks something interesting today, preferably not just grow the fun for others further away. Sounds selfish, but I think this area deserves some good storm action. 🤞🤞

I think we do indeed, considering every other point of the compass has had their fair share! Let's see what transpires 🙂 

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Is Steve Murr about?

If so how do you think it's looking for our area Steve? North/West Kent etc this afternoon?

Trip to the park be dodgy? It's been to hot for the dog recently but now we both don't want to get soaked, but he'll probably enjoy that, but hates Thunder 🙂

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Another very humid start, we had a little sunshine, but storm clouds are gathering now. It is totally calm, no breeze at all. Current temp 22C. Good Health to you all.

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2 hours ago, seaside 60 said:

However will the fresher weather actually  be fresher with moist humid south westerlies at 23/24c.

LIkely to be just as bad but a least a fair breeze.

That rain band/showers you showed on Arome is nothing like the MO radar forecast.

Hopefully fresher than the 90% - 100% humidity Arome is suggesting for some this evening Seaside!

796158113_Aromehumidity16Aug21_00.thumb.png.2754e1d835dabe4e56431e541c844ff2.png

NMM generally supportive of the Arome forecast for the heavy stuff later, although not such a clearly defined band of precip and the east coast missing out. This from 13.00 through to 22.00:

anim_gjo0.gif

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