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Model Output Discussion - Into Autumn 2019.

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37 minutes ago, Seasonality said:

I agree, there is an exceptional event taking place in the southern hemisphere and it will be fascinating to see how it plays out for us on the other side of the world.

Do you think its that warming thats causing such a vast area of high pressure and warmth across uk and europe for the next 2 weeks🤔

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The Ecm 0z ensemble mean is high pressure dominated and there is some very warm potential at times, this weekend for example looks dry, sunny and warm for the majority..lovely jubbly!👍🌞😉😎

EDM1-72.thumb.gif.2a771f482d7aa9931b2b258ebfa511cf.gifEDM1-96.thumb.gif.62c0dc9e7a6b9e70cd0439ff52929aa8.gifEDM0-96.thumb.gif.d6ef8145dcef44c0a23df0f58a68ba88.gifEDM1-144.thumb.gif.8d35f339996c7e2bf463ea1805b5a69f.gifEDM1-168.thumb.gif.2f8ab9e0ec3ee757dfdab4def728199e.gifEDM1-192.thumb.gif.0d41aacefbc4aba837e51f708b7055fd.gifEDM0-192.thumb.gif.96f5099d1cdc8d5d714c311b910b0fe2.gifEDM1-216.thumb.gif.1c96f02af6e583f14bcf29f8940ef462.gifEDM0-216.thumb.gif.43412d95fa0b3ce83a5238cf6140feeb.gifEDM1-240.thumb.gif.64f333cf588cf05d41cb777d8e9db0f6.gifEDM0-240.thumb.gif.e27c4c58dbd1c325020b872aab18d506.gif

 

Edited by JON SNOW

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Five days ago the EPS did not show much enthusiasm for the current medium tern forecast

1152002354_10-15fvedays.thumb.png.5fc8e9e2ea13af2e1f6170ca4ef2c2c8.png5-10.thumb.png.bf825713f17f2300fcfda1d6e4526c72.png

And now it appears to suggest a return to this position with the loss of the upstream amplification and a more zonal Atlantic and perhaps more changeable weather, albeit nothing drastic with anomalies still positive in the eastern Atlantic and  temps still above average

9-14.thumb.png.0c70ada2d8b67ef306a60a2b8d050521.pngindex.thumb.png.b874f72fffddd3efc852a68fd15aee9a.png

And it should also be noted neither the GEFS or NOAA are not on board with this

gfs-nhemi-z500_anom_5day-9369600.thumb.png.e380b6c111ddf2310404626f626286a4.png814day_03.thumb.gif.8290fef9c770cf2438c136fcb911c7d1.gif

 

Edited by knocker

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1 hour ago, shaky said:

Do you think its that warming thats causing such a vast area of high pressure and warmth across uk and europe for the next 2 weeks🤔

I have to admit, I've no idea shaky. That's a bit above my pay grade! 😄

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What a stonker!:yahoo:

h500slp.png   h850t850eu.png

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Wed 11 Sept

Ec-gfs

Both continue to show (3-4th day I think) ridging from iberia area into uk with troughing either side;fairly similar shape and positions

Noaa is fairly similar although eastern trough is not really showing. The 8-14 gives a similar pattern.

Upshot would be for a fairly settled spell of weather for most areas; perhaps a nw-se split with the far nw more changeable than other areas. How much sun and temperature levels will come with the synoptic outputs but the GEFS ensembles give an idea, at least, for the next 6 days with an indication of surface pressure remaining around 1020 mb, at least for the SE. As good a guide as any when they show consistency. Beyond about 20/21 September then too much scatter to take much notice.Equally they indicate little in the way of rain for the SE in the extended period.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

 

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2 hours ago, shaky said:

Do you think its that warming thats causing such a vast area of high pressure and warmth across uk and europe for the next 2 weeks🤔

I don't think so - the rise in pressure has been on the cards for a good week as the Western Pacific had a forecast uptick in convection...slight rise in AAM and consequently promoting the Azores high ridging/building in our neck of the woods. Not that i'm complaining!

If you look at the Southern Hemisphere it's business as usual:

image.thumb.png.45c3060ee10229cf692497537b5d9bd6.png

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00z clusters:

No real change out to day 10, strong ridging over or very close to the UK:

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2019091100_240.

Out at day 15, the first really unsettled cluster we've had recently showing a collapse in pressure, though in the minority at the moment:

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2019091100_360.

The next 10-12 days look nailed on as settled, what happens after this open to debate. Mean SLP slowly falling into the last week of the month, but no strong signal yet.

image.thumb.png.da7751972895c4e7c042fca58dddc96a.png

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Looking at the GEFS 6z mean longer term into late september there's a gradual trend towards cooler and more unsettled although there are still some settled members in that range but there's plenty of anticyclonic and at times warm / very warm conditions to come throughout high res and well into low res further south.

Edited by JON SNOW

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The GEFS 06Z ensembles do, rather unsurprisingly, indicate some quite toasty uppers heading our way, for late September...Far too early to get over-excited about just yet, but just keep 2011 in mind?:santa-emoji:

t850London.png   prmslLondon.png

t2mLondon.png   prcpLondon.png

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26 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

The GEFS 06Z ensembles do, rather unsurprisingly, indicate some quite toasty uppers heading our way, for late September...Far too early to get over-excited about just yet, but just keep 2011 in mind?:santa-emoji:

 

 

 

Trending back down later on though with about half the suite below 0 and 2 members not a million miles off -5c - and thats London, further north will be colder.

Edited by feb1991blizzard

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32 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Trending back down later on though with about half the suite below 0 and 2 members not a million miles off -5c - and thats London, further north will be colder.

Half of the suite below 0?

gfs-london-gb-515n-0e.thumb.png.987f2e620ca02fc8683fb6b90166f9f8.png

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Just now, Mapantz said:

Half of the suite below 0?

gfs-london-gb-515n-0e.thumb.png.987f2e620ca02fc8683fb6b90166f9f8.png

Sorry, i meant 5c, which isn't that mild but yes, jumping the gun there, getting ahead of myself thinking its late Oct.

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8 hours ago, jules216 said:

I see a trend where deterministic output is way out of sync with its own ensembles for few days now in medium term(GFS), almost like 10C difference against ensemble mean for my location at day 7!. I believe it may be down to atmosphere - MJO waking up  and reacting to SSW in Southern Hemisphere which is being forecast now to emerge in phase 6 with reasonable amplitude. This MJO wave may help to wake up hurricane activity in Atlantic again and that could have downstram effect on amplifying the pattern upstream,but the energy is yet to be resolved weather it will lead to more eastward energy and flatting out Azores High or amplifying it even more  

Thankyou for explaining the butterfly effect I was curious to have answered from my post last night. All sounds plausible I think 🤔 

 

lo

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1 minute ago, Lincs Observation said:

Thankyou for explaining the butterfly effect I was curious to have answered from my post last night. All sounds plausible I think 🤔 

 

lo

my presumption was partially incorrect as SSW will influence MJO,but not hurricane activity which is driven by recent CCKW and easterly african wave 

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Ex TS Gabrielle, now a frontal wave

meteosat-msg_naturalenhncd_overlay-ne_10m_coastline_overlay-ne_10m_admin_0_boundary_lines_land.thumb.jpg.088ad84127286e6aae40bd9f047d57d0.jpg

 

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Quite breezy in the north on Sunday as the ridge is temporarily relegated SW and a front struggles south

gfs-nhemi-z500_anom-8570400.thumb.png.0304dc893fbe664e80300b8889b60d2a.png102.thumb.png.c886e46b44040e8c5ba0f25f13bcb45e.png

Before the next amplification wave kicks in as the cut off low in the west is reinforced and the TPV stays put around northern Scandinavia/Russia

gfs-nhemi-z500_anom-8678400.thumb.png.4b67b9d2273288b4844899bc1f639167.png

The 6-11 anomaly

gfs-nhemi-z500_anom_5day-9153600.thumb.png.02d11931d0b32cf058c8b800043a9c7f.png

Edited by knocker

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Yet another potentially wonderful set of GEFS 12Z ensembles. Though, I do harbour a sneaky suspicion that, at least temperature-wise, the GFS Operational may just be a smidgeon on the optimistic side of things?:shok:

t850London.png   prmslLondon.png

 

t2mLondon.png   prcpLondon.png

But I most definitely hope not!:yahoo:

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The ecm 5-10 anomaly. And not to minimize the roll of the cut off upper low in the Biscay area which helps to 'support' the amplification of the subtropical zones against energy emanating from the west

ecmwf-nhemi-z500_anom_5day-9067200.thumb.png.f6a951d105a8aa6443396d067952a1b1.png

Edited by knocker

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47 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Yet another potentially wonderful set of GEFS 12Z ensembles. Though, I do harbour a sneaky suspicion that, at least temperature-wise, the GFS Operational may just be a smidgeon on the optimistic side of things?:shok:

t850London.png   prmslLondon.png

 

t2mLondon.png   prcpLondon.png

But I most definitely hope not!:yahoo:

Seems to be a slight increase in signals for rain around the 26th in recent runs.

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7 minutes ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

Seems to be a slight increase in signals for rain around the 26th in recent runs.

That’s 15 days away....it ain’t going to stay warm, dry and settled forever. A couple of weeks is a decent stretch. All subject to change of course, tropical developments will no doubt appear in this timeframe and throw a large spanner in the works.

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Wow the Ecm 12z operational really turns on the heat later, incredible 850's (uppers) ....charts you would hope for in the height of summer, still producing in mid / late september!!..better not forget this weekend, it's a cracker too under high pressure with lots of sunshine and mid 20's celsius on Sunday across the S / SE! 👍🌞

72_mslp500.thumb.png.60e1ab02c8aa34d1a308ffff0322947a.png96_mslp500.thumb.png.8b52b8a70c89a406edeb63cdf360bd9a.png96_thickuk.thumb.png.3395e7dd1b5d7ab2a5d9d7ee112b94b4.png144_mslp500.thumb.png.147ac56b824e4fad6e30c8065fcaa358.png168_mslp500.thumb.png.b3bd22e7b8406005ef9faaa113c373f1.png192_thickuk.thumb.png.1fb33f5bea1ebb0277c34f911cad0596.png192_mslp850.thumb.png.080a75b3506ff05948902cf1f02ef912.png192_mslp500.thumb.png.ec7c81979c5660f5a893c51457fc6a1e.png216_thickuk.thumb.png.39ccc3df389201a1a34aaf0feb943359.png216_mslp850.thumb.png.7915bdb848278a584db728e33a2f40cb.png216_mslp500.thumb.png.a8f354de1bcc44a65c2c6070cfc0c985.png240_thickuk.thumb.png.dfc9a45e7b11237d267aef8b1d04a0ee.png240_mslp850.thumb.png.49ef8f81609458da6bb28ac6be696e2b.png240_thick.thumb.png.58ee4401a2019320682e51da193d4e80.pngmask-rd.thumb.jpg.8e2786bad79ce29144452449cd64c3e2.jpg

Edited by JON SNOW

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49 minutes ago, knocker said:

The percentage rainfall figures for SYNOPS so far this month. If one assumes quite reasonable that many of these will get negligible amounts for the rest of the month it can be seen how fry a month it could be

http://www.met.reading.ac.uk/~brugge/CURR.html

ecmwf-uk-total_precip_inch-9499200.thumb.png.ae058816b7fe4be285f50c3199c798e9.png

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There is no complaints from me as regards to the near future outlook as far as i am concerned,it's looking dry and warm for many folks

i could not draw a better outlook from the cpc this evening,check it out:-

days 6-10 and 8-14 

610day_03.thumb.gif.448571c6c2713d1a73f4ac92860f11be.gif814day_03.thumb.gif.4b72493d3befb42e07668c5face76ec7.gif

the ecm and gefs means for similar said timeline

at 240hrs

EDH1-240.thumb.gif.c576e9e28398419d3ff7f9505ac463ce.gifgensnh-21-1-240.thumb.png.443b95cf9122a6cdd30edd5a51f1bda9.png

good calm weather to enjoy and some nice autumn colors to take in,lovely,can we have some fog too to boot,love fog

enjoy.

 

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