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Turnedoutniceagain

Snow & Ice coverage in the Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019/20

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2 hours ago, ArHu3 said:

There's a new update on MASIE, it looks like the Baltic had a big increase, hopefully it stays frozen for the rest of winter because a frozen Baltic Sea makes NE's pack a punch over where I live (in the Netherlands)

 

edit: now I see they use different scales on the y-axis for the different regions, 800km2, that's only a very small region of the total Baltic sea even (around 400000 km2) but still the freeze hasn't happened this early in the past 5 years at least

 Very true, it massively enhances strength of cold of easterlies

 

BFTP

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Todays Masie update....

Total gain of (+77K), way below the average of the last 2 weeks, but only slightly below normal  (95K) averages.

Gains of ESS(+6K) and Laptev(+15K) were as expected well down.

Kara (+19K) seemed to just try and capture NZ from the North.

There were gains, however, in Beaufort (+2K) and Chukchi(+21K) . Could this finally be the start of the freeze in this area?.

The winds seem to be switching to a more beneficial direction now. It is clear that the waters along the coastline are cold as the ice there just remains in situ.

Elsewhere Baffin(+3K), and CAA(+5K) managed small increases, as did Hudson (+1K), The smaller sea areas of  SOO, Baltic both  gained, which is promising since they are a few days (week) early this year and still appear to be surviving.

Worth mentioning that Central Arctic area lost (-1K), The  first time for nearly 3 weeks. Caused by a small movement northwards of the ice in and around Svalbard's north western coast. 

I think that we may well have entered a period of more restrained ice growth, although temperatures are continuing to fall very quickly now and the cold high pressure seems to be becoming more dominant according to Climate Reanalyser.

.

 

image.thumb.png.0d5cc899c3de0297aa2a2848242be7ba.png                     and      image.thumb.png.666b964aa911be7e34d119228fba1376.png  

 

 

Both of which should be beneficial for ice growth.

MIA

Edited by Midlands Ice Age

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30 minutes ago, *Stormforce~beka* said:

Anyone know where the snow webcams thread disappeared to?

The Scandi webcam thread? 

 

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2 hours ago, Turnedoutniceagain said:

Huge ice build up now on the Siberian coastline

image.thumb.png.e3b97ef965263cd1be23e4c4af68a2be.png

Yep...

I think it is a bit more general this morning Though you are correct in that the ice over Siberia is now starting to look quite good.

I expect around average ice extent increases today (50 - 100K Km2) increases, spread through the whole pack.

Will be back later with more details. I also have 'discovered' more data on the atmospheric conditions above the Arctic which may well be highly relevant (or not!)...

Not too much change this morning in snow cover, but expect large changes by the end of the week!

MIA 

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12 minutes ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

Yep...

I think it is a bit more general this morning Though you are correct in that the ice over Siberia is now starting to look quite good.

I expect around average ice extent increases today (50 - 100K Km2) increases, spread through the whole pack.

Will be back later with more details. I also have 'discovered' more data on the atmospheric conditions above the Arctic which may well be highly relevant (or not!)...

Not too much change this morning in snow cover, but expect large changes by the end of the week!

MIA 

Do you have older data, before 2014 on when Kara, Barentsz, Bering Hudson Bay and Baffin Bay usually freeze over? 

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4 minutes ago, ArHu3 said:

Do you have older data, before 2014 on when Kara, Barentsz, Bering Hudson Bay and Baffin Bay usually freeze over? 

Yep...

It is all  on Masie . Just take the download option and load it to a spreadsheet. I use Office Excel, but any spreadsheet will do it.

It is also possible to download data from the NASA sites...

 

OK, I am out all day, but before I go (and following on from my post on Sat). I have discovered (from a post on Roy Spencer thread) that a massive  of Ozone has occurred over Eastern Siberia. I also note that in the Model Discussion thread people are talking about a possible massive expected warming in the area next week..

Could this prove to be the missing 'item' on my post of Saturday? Can I refer you back as I as to be out now.

Does it explain the different freeze  conditions in the Arctic this year?

Could it be the missing 'link' between various current theories on ice growth and build up? 

Can Ozone in the upper troposphere/ lower stratosphere be what is controlling this years events?

I need somebody with a knowledge of the 'strat' to take this further as it is beyond my sphere of knowledge.

Anyone help?

MIA

image.thumb.png.16c136c9545684e5a3126c8cac61ddb8.png

 

 

 

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24 minutes ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

Yep...

It is all  on Masie . Just take the download option and load it to a spreadsheet. I use Office Excel, but any spreadsheet will do it.

It is also possible to download data from the NASA sites...

 

OK, I am out all day, but before I go (and following on from my post on Sat). I have discovered (from a post on Roy Spencer thread) that a massive  of Ozone has occurred over Eastern Siberia. I also note that in the Model Discussion thread people are talking about a possible massive expected warming in the area next week..

Could this prove to be the missing 'item' on my post of Saturday? Can I refer you back as I as to be out now.

Does it explain the different freeze  conditions in the Arctic this year?

Could it be the missing 'link' between various current theories on ice growth and build up? 

Can Ozone in the upper troposphere/ lower stratosphere be what is controlling this years events?

I need somebody with a knowledge of the 'strat' to take this further as it is beyond my sphere of knowledge.

Anyone help?

MIA

image.thumb.png.16c136c9545684e5a3126c8cac61ddb8.png

 

 

 

There is a bit of info about the effects of ozone on the Stratosphere in the Stratosphere thread, apparently it captures uv light and warms the Stratosphere 

 

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OK Guys.... back after a day of voluntary work at the local hospital.

 

My first check was for Masie...

Totally wrong again!

It was double my guess this morning at +197K Km2.

Quite extraordinary rise as the only area to reduce was the Central region (-1K) \, which up until now has outperformed all other regions.

Beaufort (+47K) was the star performer and Chukchi keeps growing steadily now (+14K). I think that these areas have decided that the SST's are now low enough to refreeze and will carry on doing so now.

ESS(+38K) is now driving ice  east and has captured Wrangle Island now, Laptev (+19K) still hasn't quite captured the 'hole', 

Kara (+30K) although not gaining much has now 'spotted' the ocean east of NZ, (signs of a quick refreeze again?), I expect it to freeze quickly now.

CAA added(+27K), and Barents(+3K), Bering(+4K) - now icing on both shores.

Baffin added (+9K) and Hudson Bay bursts into life with a further (+2K). It think it will ice over steadily now.

All in all it is still carrying on with a steady to good rise now. Expect JAXA to show 2019 at third lowest tomorrow, then several other years start to become reachable,

Edited by Midlands Ice Age

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Lots of bright purples (-1 to 1) so very close to sea water freezing temperature

satsst.gbl.d-00.png

 

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2 hours ago, ArHu3 said:

Lots of bright purples (-1 to 1) so very close to sea water freezing temperature

satsst.gbl.d-00.png

 

You can actually see the ice grow if you play the sea surface temperature animation, a big jump in growth all of a sudden between 31-10 and 02-11

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Arth..

 Thanks for the above.

Todays US NIC shows general increases everywhere (again), including Beaufort and Chukchi.

I feel  these areas will be the crucial areas which define this years re-freeze season result. It being either neutral, or  if they grow normally from here on in, an above average result will be obtained. 

Snow cover increased substantially in Asia as the low which was in the Caspian Sea pushes eastward. There was a drop, however, in the snow cover in Eastern Europe as the front moved back eastward.  

image.thumb.png.5e3b51b2af222cad2a0130e5ea371500.png

 

Edited by Midlands Ice Age

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6 hours ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

Arth..

 Thanks for the above.

Todays US NIC shows general increases everywhere (again), including Beaufort and Chukchi.

I feel  these areas will be the crucial areas which define this years re-freeze season result. It being either neutral, or  if they grow normally from here on in, an above average result will be obtained. 

Snow cover increased substantially in Asia as the low which was in the Caspian Sea pushes eastward. There was a drop, however, in the snow cover in Eastern Europe as the front moved back eastward.  

image.thumb.png.5e3b51b2af222cad2a0130e5ea371500.png

 

Back for the Maisie update...

A total gain of +125K (about 30K) above the average for the date.

Laptev (+4K ) now full.... ESS(-1K)  the only loser..... Kara(+6K) consolidation today...….. 

Barents (+7K)  still increasing...     Greenland(+5K) ditto, and Baffin(+2K),  CAA  (+13K).

Meanwhile on the other side ...

Beaufort taking off now with (+66K)….(Century gain over 2 days).

Chukchi(+17K) steadily cooling and closing in now.

The outer sea areas showed gains in Hudson(+4K) - looks like taking off now, and Bering(+3K).

 

The other thing to note is that Arctic temperature has continuing to tumble, and at 251.8K is now only about 1K above the average for the last 40 years (having been 7K above the average 2 weeks ago)…. This (if it falls below the average) definitely indicates that something has really changed this year, and also in the very recent past. (Maisie DMI  temperature  graph attached).  See the large gradient in the recent slope.

 image.thumb.png.263466b403598349f966cde7bb4c8e9d.png

 

What is causing this sudden massive cooling? It has not happened for at least 20 years ( at this time of year).  I am beginning to think, more and more, that it is associated with the huge build up of Ozone over the Arctic/ Siberian peninsula -  as nothing else looks untoward.

Still to early  yet though!!!               I am reading up on Atmospheric Ozone.

MIA

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October temperature variations show the two areas where there have been low temperatures and earlier than usual heavy snow quite well. NW USA/SW Canada and over this side of the Atlantic Scandinavia (and to a lesser extent here.)

15A40897-F15B-4361-B67A-78446573F37B.jpeg

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Many thanks to both Kirkcaldy Weather and MIA for the daily updates, you've breathed new life into this thread!  There's no doubt that these early extreme temperatures around Scandinavia and Russia are posing some interesting questions.  Is this just a once in 20 year blip or something more significant?  

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And can this influence the weather patterns during the next months?

It is very likely that November will follow October as the colder of the last decade 

US and Canada are also getting some fierce cold waves for that time of the year.

 

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Small increases of snow in Scandinavia and Eastern Europe:

cursnow_asiaeurope Snow and Ice Chart of Asia and Europe Tuesday 5th November 2019.gif

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26 minutes ago, Turnedoutniceagain said:

Here's a 2month comparison for you

 

image.thumb.png.d06d3befe760e40719880044fef52b42.png

 A one of two week comparison would be much more telling, I believe. Huge icd gains especially north of Siberia this last week 

Edited by ArHu3

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Morning all

US NIC this morning …

Showing a few changes this morning with less ice increases in the Russian quadrant, but more in the US ones.

Is this the start of a new trend,(back to normality?) or is it a consolidation 'blip' in the east/ north?

Increases in Baffin, CAA and Beaufort this morning, but the Chukchi looks to have receded in the centre sector, however it has increased in the eastern and western sections. A smaller gain today however, overall.

Back later with Maisie data.. I'll see if I cannot produce a 2week chart as well.

MIA

Edited by Midlands Ice Age

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11 hours ago, topo said:

And can this influence the weather patterns during the next months?

It is very likely that November will follow October as the colder of the last decade 

US and Canada are also getting some fierce cold waves for that time of the year.

 

Yes, but I know/doubt that anyone  is currently capable of  providing this information.

It is the 'goal' of weather forecasting. 

There are still too many unknowns for us to be able to predict beyond the next 5 days, as seen in the model output forum.

All we can do for now is to watch and identify and report what is happening - which should eventually lead to  better knowledge. 

Many of the factors which can impact our weather patterns are CO2, clouds (in all forms), ice (and feedbacks), solar in all its forms, temperature, humidity, orography,   as well as ocean currents and temperatures,  and I now suspect Ozone.  All the above need to measured not just at the surface, but at all levels in the atmosphere.  It is the complex interaction between all these elements which the models attempt to resolve.

However, only when  all the science is FULLY understood (and then correctly implemented in the models), can we hope to resolve your question.

We are getting better, but as seen in this years sudden 'unexpected' (both in position and extent) refreeze, enough is not yet known to be able to fulfil your request.

MIA 

 

Edited by Midlands Ice Age

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12 hours ago, Ice Day said:

Many thanks to both Kirkcaldy Weather and MIA for the daily updates, you've breathed new life into this thread!  There's no doubt that these early extreme temperatures around Scandinavia and Russia are posing some interesting questions.  Is this just a once in 20 year blip or something more significant?  

Can I point out that other people like Aleman, and the 'early morning' team have also helped to keep the thread moving along... 

Time will tell...….  Patience is required.

MIA

Edited by Midlands Ice Age

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