Snow & Ice coverage in the Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019/20

[Midlands Ice Age]

18 hours ago, Interitus said:

The Alaskan anomaly is the most intriguing - it was unusual when pointed out in this thread over a month ago (Nov 15th) but to be still present now is staggering. Sure, Anchorage has had some snow in the intervening period, but then followed a December record maximum of 10.6°C (previous record 8.9°C).

Last 30 days temperature anomaly of 7.2°C

Interitus...

Looked into the weather forecasts for Barrow and Anchorage.

 They are both forecasting very much colder weather starting today and lasting the Xmas period.

Anchorage first..
https://weather.com/weather/tenday/l/Anchorage+AK?canonicalCityId=8eebad166971ce0374edb4da72e162c8f01436407ed8cb9934296620013edaaf

 

Average for this period is max -3C and Minimum -8C.

Followed by Barrow.... 

https://weather.com/en-GB/weather/tenday/l/USAK0025:1:US

About average (or just below) for the time of year.

The weather over Alaska has been based upon low pressure anomalies stretching across the Bering Straits into the coast of Siberia. On the US side this has been drawing in air northwards from the Pacific. Conditions are now expected to change, and even Anchorage is expected to draw air from the Arctic.

Interesting change.... 

MIA

 

 

[cheeky_monkey]

9 minutes ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

Interitus...

Looked into the weather forecasts for Barrow and Anchorage.

 They are both forecasting very much colder weather starting today and lasting the Xmas period.

Anchorage first..
https://weather.com/weather/tenday/l/Anchorage+AK?canonicalCityId=8eebad166971ce0374edb4da72e162c8f01436407ed8cb9934296620013edaaf

 

Average for this period is max -3C and Minimum -8C.

Followed by Barrow.... 

https://weather.com/en-GB/weather/tenday/l/USAK0025:1:US

About average (or just below) for the time of year.

The weather over Alaska has been based upon low pressure anomalies stretching across the Bering Straits into the coast of Siberia. On the US side this has been drawing in air northwards from the Pacific. Conditions are now expected to change, and even Anchorage is expected to draw air from the Arctic.

Interesting change.... 

MIA

 

 

Yellowknife in the Yukon has had a cold December thus far some -5c below normal..and got down to -45c yesterday..looks like staying cold right into the new year..on a whole the Yukon has had a cold year all round only March was above the norm by any real margin..its strange that no one mentions that the majority of the continent of NA has a cold year this year..yet because Alaska has had an anonymously warm year that is in the media a lot.

[Midlands Ice Age]

Masie for today..

Shows an unexpected quite large drop of -46K Km2. The 3rd consecutive day of no ice increase on average.

The Pacific front still gained with Chukchi (+4K) and Bering(+9K).  SOO however had a collapse and lost all recent gains (-42K).

Hudson also lost recent  gains (-20K), whilst  Baffin  lost(-13K), in North America.

Elsewhere small gains in Barents(+5K), Greenland(+12K) and Central(+3K).

Outer areas - no real change.

Summary of ice changes in the last week -

Not  very good for the start of freezing in the  areas outside of Arctic circle.

Although it is rather strange that whilst the ice has been contracting in the Arctic Circle that the temperatures have fallen at the same time. 

 

MIA

 

 

 

Edited December 19, 2019 by Midlands Ice Age

[Midlands Ice Age]

5 minutes ago, cheeky_monkey said:

Yellowknife in the Yukon has had a cold December thus far some -5c below normal..and got down to -45c yesterday..looks like staying cold right into the new year..on a whole the Yukon has had a cold year all round only March was above the norm by any real margin..its strange that no one mentions that the majority of the continent of NA has a cold year this year..yet because Alaska has had an anonymously warm year that is in the media a lot.

Roger..

I agree, its rather like viewing the weather in SW England (say Penzance) and assuming that the rest of the UK is experiencing the same conditions. 

MIA

Edited December 19, 2019 by Midlands Ice Age

[Interitus]

11 hours ago, cheeky_monkey said:

Yellowknife in the Yukon has had a cold December thus far some -5c below normal..and got down to -45c yesterday..looks like staying cold right into the new year..on a whole the Yukon has had a cold year all round only March was above the norm by any real margin..its strange that no one mentions that the majority of the continent of NA has a cold year this year..yet because Alaska has had an anonymously warm year that is in the media a lot.

Two sides of the same coin regarding flow patterns. That said, cool anomalies have not been as large as warm anomalies. BTW, Yellowknife is in NWT, Yukon has been mild like Alaska.

[Midlands Ice Age]

US NIC..

Little change overall in either snow cover or sea ice this morning.

Bering still covering in, but very slowly.

Whilst it is quiet in here, it is worthwhile reporting that the 'Lance' (the ship sent in to pick up the 2 Norwegian skiers crossing the pole) has become trapped in the ice, after trying to get in too close to pick them up. Apparently the captain has had to put everyone onboard  onto rations as they only have 12 days supply of food on board. I guess reports of an ice breaker being sent out from Tromso were not far off the mark.

Calls to request support from a helicopter on Svalbard have been turned down,  so far, due to bad weather in the area, as they are on the limit of the range of the helicopters,  

MIA

Edited December 20, 2019 by Midlands Ice Age

[Midlands Ice Age]

US NIC today.

Snow moving westwards in Russia. 

Ice now slowly increasing again mainly in the Pacific area.

Yesterday gave a 57K Km2 increase on Maisie, with gains also in the East.

 

MIA

[Midlands Ice Age]

Masie today..

Twice the average growth of 108K KM2  today.

Most  areas showed an increase, with Chukchi (+35K) and Bering(+2K) beginning to close out in the inner basin. SOO (+24K) is once again rapidly recapturing losses made 3 days ago.

Elsewhere Barents(+8K) and Greenland(+20K), both increased, probably under the influence of the constant NE blowing up there.

North America was again variable with Hudson (now full, -5K), whereas Baffin (+15K) is now headed for the Labrador Peninsula.

The other change of note was a large increase in Baltic of (+5K).

Temperature forecasts for the Arctic for the next 10 days suggest that the recent long lived warming over Alaska is being brought to an end. Temperatures are expected to fall below anomaly values in the Arctic for the first time this winter, with quite expansive -50C minimum  temperatures over large areas of Siberia  and also the Elsmere Island. (has been above average so far), and Greenland. The cooler temperatures  are also forecast for the Aleutian Islands and outer Bering.

It will be interesting to see if this temperature drop has any affect on the growth of the ice.

Also of interest is that North America is expected to join Europe in above average temperatures.

          and       

 

MIA

 

 

Edited December 21, 2019 by Midlands Ice Age

[Katrine Basso]

There have been small decreases of snow and ice cover for Scandinavia and the Bering Straits.

[Midlands Ice Age]

Masie time today,

and a little look at historical perspective. (don't worry BFTV..  using JAXA)

Masie today shows an increase of  +35K Km2.almost all of which is outside the Arctic Basin. the basin being basically full apart from small gains in Barents and Greenland.

In Chukchi (-15K) and Bering (-18K) lost today, as the remaining ocean water was pushed south west  towards Siberia.  Northerly winds and ice freeze up in Barents and Chukchi will (should?) occur over Xmas, as Arctic temps are now forecast to drop to -0.8C below anomaly in 5 days time.

Elsewhere in the basin,  minor changes are occurring with Barents (-9K) and Baffin(-5K) being wind affected, but Hudson (+22K) refroze after losses over the last few days.

So where was the gain?  Yep as I suggested 2 or 3 days back,  in the outer areas with the SOO (+66K) suddenly expanding quickly.

A quick look at where we stand in terms of sea ice, over the last couple of decades..

Well we have seen, according to Jaxa,  that we have moved up to the 6th lowest in the time series (thanks to the asif)... 

and even more encouraging (assuming you do not want to see the sea ice disappear) is that it is now above average for this decade, and furthermore is moving towards being the 8th lowest shortly in the last 15 years. (?).

All this,  after it was lowest by 250K just 2.5 months ago.  It still shows that the ice can recreate itself if conditions are suitable.

So what different conditions have we seen that may have contributed to this change?

1)  A low solar

2) A higher Ozone concentration in the stratosphere this year

3) A lack of a polar Vortex, and also no SSW's (so far)

4) A switch to a cooler phase in the SST's in the North Atlantic..

5) The start to a cooler phase (expected soon) in the AMOC

6) A tighter more compact inner core of ice at the beginning of the ice season in the Central 'core' area 

7) A 1.5% more CO2 in the atmosphere.

Anything else to add?

All the above appear to be present in the Northern Hemisphere this year..

Are they all part of the same basic change or are they all individual elements that can increase sea ice separately?

I do not know which are correlated.   Anyone else know anything better?

MIA

Edited December 22, 2019 by Midlands Ice Age

[Katrine Basso]

There have been small increases of sea ice:

[Midlands Ice Age]

News today of another big increase from Maisie.

A gain of +148K Km2 in total which is 3 times the average for the day.

Already JAXA is at 7th lowest for the day, and could well be well clear in 8th by tomorrow.

Anyways......, a complete freeze up in Hudson (+64K), and Baffin of (+15K), made good progress in North America.

Chukchi(+12K) filled in after yesterdays fall, and other gains were recorded in Greenland(+8K) and Barents(+3K).

Meanwhile Bering (+9K) and the SOO(+44K) responded to lower temperatures now being recorded in the Pacific rim.

The 'outer' areas are beginning to show their ice freeze capabilities  now. 

We are still seeing much lower temps forecast for the Arctic area, and this promises a continued rapid refreeze in the outer sea areas.

MIA

 

Edited December 23, 2019 by Midlands Ice Age

[Midlands Ice Age]

US NIC this morning...

Slight reductions in snow cover

Quite large increases in sea ice particularly in the outer areas of Baffin and the SOO. 

[Midlands Ice Age]

Masie confirms my earlier remarks..

A double the average gain of 111K Km2 keeps the sea ice moving up the tables.

Chukchi (+3K), Being (0) and SOO (+20K) were reported from the eastern extents, whilst the west gained heaviest today with

Kara(+5K), Barents(+26K), Greenland(+4K) and Baffin(+38K) all moving steadily into the open waters.

Hudson appears to be sealed off now with  a further (+6K).  

CR is still talking about the Arctic becoming very cold over the next couple of days. It will be interesting to see this affects the ice margins that much.  As  reported/ observed in other threads there is some serious cold (-50C) expected to hit Alaska, now that the wind is shifting from a southerly quadrant, for the first time for many months.

It is nearly the time, now it has reached Xmas, that extent begins to take a back seat to volume.    

The additional cold now moving in ought to enable the ice to hold the 3rd position currently held within PIOMAS.

However , I shall be out travelling all day tomorrow, so may I wish you all the best wishes for Christmas. I hope that Santa doesn't get stuck in the ice alongside the 2 research projects, currently cogitating up there.

More importantly- everyone keep healthy.

MIA

                   o  

 

Edited December 24, 2019 by Midlands Ice Age

[Beanz]

3 hours ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

Masie confirms my earlier remarks..

A double the average gain of 111K Km2 keeps the sea ice moving up the tables.

Chukchi (+3K), Being (0) and SOO (+20K) were reported from the eastern extents, whilst the west gained heaviest today with

Kara(+5K), Barents(+26K), Greenland(+4K) and Baffin(+38K) all moving steadily into the open waters.

Hudson appears to be sealed off now with  a further (+6K).  

CR is still talking about the Arctic becoming very cold over the next couple of days. It will be interesting to see this affects the ice margins that much.  As  reported/ observed in other threads there is some serious cold (-50C) expected to hit Alaska, now that the wind is shifting from a southerly quadrant, for the first time for many months.

It is nearly the time, now it has reached Xmas, that extent begins to take a back seat to volume.    

The additional cold now moving in ought to enable the ice to hold the 3rd position currently held within PIOMAS.

However , I shall be out travelling all day tomorrow, so may I wish you all the best wishes for Christmas. I hope that Santa doesn't get stuck in the ice alongside the 2 research projects, currently cogitating up there.

More importantly- everyone keep healthy.

MIA

                   o  

 

Thanks MIA, have been enjoying your updates this winter, look forward to progress after Christmas.  Enjoy the festivities  

[Midlands Ice Age]

Found 5 mins to display todays US NIC..

No change at all in snow cover, but more average increases in sea ice.

Oh yes and a happy Xmas to you... my present is that JAXA has just moved up to 8th lowest at over 12K Km2, and is now rapidly catching the years from early the 2000's....

MIA

 

 

 

[claret047]

1 hour ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

Found 5 mins to display todays US NIC..

No change at all in snow cover, but more average increases in sea ice.

Oh yes and a happy Xmas to you... my present is that JAXA has just moved up to 8th lowest at over 12K Km2, and is now rapidly catching the years from early the 2000's....

MIA

 

 

 

Many thanks to MIA & other posters on here that make this thread an extremely interesting one. I only came across it a few weeks back, but is now one of the first I look at when logging in.

A very Merry Christmas to one and all. 

[Midlands Ice Age]

Morning all..

A busy day for me yesterday.... 275 miles and Xmas diner and games of Cluedo, Perudo, and Dirty Gert!

US NIC this morning...

No real changes in snow cover.  We desperately  need some snow fall into Europe now.

Sea Ices continues to grow, now in 9th position in JAXA  and more increases today.

 

I think that we can now say that the Bering Straits are 'closed'.

MIA

[ALL ABOARD]

8 hours ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

Morning all..

A busy day for me yesterday.... 275 miles and Xmas diner and games of Cluedo, Perudo, and Dirty Gert!

US NIC this morning...

No real changes in snow cover.  We desperately  need some snow fall into Europe now.

Sea Ices continues to grow, now in 9th position in JAXA  and more increases today.

 

I think that we can now say that the Bering Straits are 'closed'.

MIA

Hello MIA do you have a link for the Jaxa reports? 

[Midlands Ice Age]

1 hour ago, ALL ABOARD said:

Hello MIA do you have a link for the Jaxa reports? 

I use the Arctic Sea Ice Forum who prepare the data and present a graph each day.

  and       

If you really do need a link try this, but it is presented in a similar format to Masie , but without a realistic useable   graphical interface.

The above graphs I think are your best chance of understanding the actual positions.

https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent

For the actual detail extent total data you then have to take the option to download a CSV file and the results are presented reasonably, but not the information, by volume, by ice 'area', nor by geographical area. 

 

 

Anyway, on to today's Masie figures -

Another above average increase of 71K KM2 - centred again on the outer sea areas.

Chukchi(+13K) continues to fill, whereas Bering (+33K) positively bursts into the open waters towards  the Aleutian Island Chain. 

Barents (+12K)  continue to fill in around the western shore lines of Novaya Zemlya, ready to fill in the North Russian  and Baltic shorelines in 2020. Greenland (+12K) gained but Baffin (-6K) fell back a bit today. SOO continues its steady relentless growth (+12K).

With the lowest temperatures recorded over the Arctic region for quite a while just starting now,   Particularly around the Bering Straits, the ice is beginning to look as if it could well bring a pause to the constant retreating of the last couple of decades.

Overall a very good end to the 2010 decade. Lets hope that this is a good fore-taste of the next decade. 

MIA

 

Edited December 26, 2019 by Midlands Ice Age

[Midlands Ice Age]

US NIC today..

Its becoming a recurrent theme with no real change in snow, but once again well above increases in sea ice, both in the East (Pacific) and also with Barents having a large spurt.

MIA

[Midlands Ice Age]

wow. WOW. WOW

Masie has produced a 4 times the average of the last 10 years growth today with a 157K Km2 increase.

No area recorded a loss of ice , with the Pacific fringe of Bering(+21K) and the SOO(+63K) and a decent start to the refreeze of Yellow Sea(+3K).

Barents (+23K) and Greenland(+4K), also continue to build nicely.

Hudson is also closing out into Baffin Sea now with an increase of (+33K).

The freeze up over the Xmas period has brought 2019, within striking distance of the remaining 2010 decade year (that of 2014) as the highest recorded at the end of the year. It is also now rapidly catching 4 years from the 2000 decade (2006-9) as it is with in 2% of them all. 

Temperatures over the Arctic are falling rapidly to now show a 5 day anomaly of -1.0C, and as can be seen the colder air is flowing from the Central Arctic is now pushing southwards into both Svalbard (Barents) and out into the Bering Sea (via Alaska), and into the Pacific.

          

MIA

 

[Midlands Ice Age]

US NIC this morning..

Snow cover moved into Eastern Europe yesterday as the cold outbreak was swept down towards Greece.!

Sea ice expanded again in the Pacific, but was variable on the Atlantic front. 

Expect a more 'average' increase on Masie this pm.

 

I see that Alaska is now at -20C below normal temperatures (below -50C in places), and is forecast to continue for a few days yet.. Let us see what happens to the ice in the area.  

MIA

 

[Katrine Basso]

The Latest update of the snow and ice chart.  It shows that snow is starting to creep into Europe.

[Midlands Ice Age]

This mornings US NIC...

 

Shows more extensive snow cover developing into Eastern Europe as the colder air continues to be pushed south there...

Sea ice growth has moderated.

Yesterday's Masie showed a much reduced growth of just (+37K), with growth in similar areas to the previous day.

Todays US NIC is different in that it shows a quite large reduction in the SOO, whilst the other areas continued with moderate gains.

MIA

PS I have just seen Katrine's report in 'show reply', but I'll post anyway.