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Roger J Smith

September 2019 C.E.T. and EWP contests

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EWP tracker found 9 mm in the first six days, added nothing to that on the 7th, and looks like settling in around 20-25 mm before an extended dry spell mid-month that lasts to the end of the 12z GFS run (24th 12z) but appears to be breaking down shortly after that. 

Based on 40 mm, this is how scoring would look at the end of September ... no doubt an alternate version will be posted before the end of this month.

 

EWP20182019SEP.xlsx

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I’m surprised the CET is not lower it’s been rather cool in London for early September definitely more autumnal feel a novelty, should still be seeing 20s no problem although that’s coming soon...

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14.1 to the 8th

0.6c below the 61 to 90 average

1.0c below the 81 to 10 average

________________________________

Current high this month 14.7 to the 4th

Current low this month 13.4 to the 1st

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Sunny Sheffield down to 13.3 -2.4C below normal. Rainfall unchanged.

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Quite a cool start to September, but nothing too noteworthy. The coming week is expected to bring a rise in values, as we import some warmer uppers, so suspect this time next week we could be into the 15s, but some uncertainty how cool night might be. Longer term - signs may see another cool down depending on position of heights, potential for some notable cool minima if heights build more to the NW..

 

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13.9 to the 9th

0.6c below the 61 to 90 average

1.2c below the 81 to 10 average

________________________________

Current high this month 14.7 to the 4th

Current low this month 13.4 to the 1st

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Sunny Sheffield down to 12.9C -2.7C below normal. Rainfall 9.3mm 14.2% of the monthly average.

Quite a cold noteworthy start here in Sunny Sheffield as noteworthy to very warm start less month. GFS shows it warming up so this is likely to the low point for a while. How much of a recovery depends on whether the gfs is being correct with the temperatures. At the moment it tends to under do the day time temps and over do the night time temperatures. To be honest the new GFS is probably less reliable than the old one as it tends to over do the rain at short time intervals as well.

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My 13.9C prediction is looking a tad shaky, plus my rainfall punt.

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EWP had reached 12 mm by the 8th, added perhaps 3 mm with significant amounts in the southwest mostly on the 9th, and shows a small increase through ten days on the GFS of only about 8 mm on average. The charts from day eleven to sixteen on the 12z GFS don't look all that wet either, in a cool showery flow, perhaps 10-15 mm there for a grand total of about 33-38 mm closing in on the end of the month. As to the CET, that will almost definitely rise steadily with a few pauses, probably reaching the low to mid 15 range. Some of the output near the end of the run looks cool enough to reverse some of that warming but with the usual low confidence on such output that far away. 

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13.9 to the 10th

0.6c below the 61 to 90 average

1.1c below the 81 to 10 average

________________________________

Current high this month 14.7 to the 4th

Current low this month 13.4 to the 1st

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18 hours ago, Roger J Smith said:

EWP had reached 12 mm by the 8th, added perhaps 3 mm with significant amounts in the southwest mostly on the 9th, and shows a small increase through ten days on the GFS of only about 8 mm on average. The charts from day eleven to sixteen on the 12z GFS don't look all that wet either, in a cool showery flow, perhaps 10-15 mm there for a grand total of about 33-38 mm closing in on the end of the month. As to the CET, that will almost definitely rise steadily with a few pauses, probably reaching the low to mid 15 range. Some of the output near the end of the run looks cool enough to reverse some of that warming but with the usual low confidence on such output that far away. 

Not sure about that, Met suggests average temps between now and end of september, about mid 14's IMO. still a very very outside chance of my 13.8 coming in, given some of the outrageous downward corrections recently, admittedly thats probably a forlorn hope though but not sure i can see mid 15's, or at least its certainly not the favoured outcome.

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Yes, I meant CET would reach low to mid 15 range at some point before end of the run (yesterday) so that would have been around 21st or so, with some downward movement implied after that. Not saying the month would end at low to mid 15s even before corrections. Looking at current output however, would say that has warmed up near the end of the run compared to what I had in view yesterday, so now would be of the opinion that the rise will continue and we will be sitting in the mid 15 range by the 27th. Projecting the last two days forward it doesn't look like turning a lot colder then either. But as to the correction factor, that could be anything with so much dry weather meaning clear nights and variable minima around the region. 

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Sunny Sheffield at 13C -2.5C below normal. Rainfall 10.1mm  15.4% of the monthly average.

GFS showing a very warm conditions in lala land whether this comes of or not remains to be seen. However you can't put much faith at such a long time span away.

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14.1 to the 11th

0.4c below the 61 to 90 average

0.9c below the 81 to 10 average

________________________________

Current high this month 14.7 to the 4th

Current low this month 13.4 to the 1st

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Below is the estimate of the CET over the next 10 days based on the 06z GFS

image.thumb.png.e59cbc964ae8efce18a2af8cc4128881.png

The first graph is the provisional data and forecast with daily max, min, mean and the rolling CET, as well as the 81-10 rolling mean. The second graph is the daily mean in relation the the daily high and low mean record values.

  image.thumb.png.c67f6a39bfb1505a0cf0093622c4cafb.png image.thumb.png.3ad71fba158449020d95311988b1cf9e.png

Things look like remaining a little above average for the next 5 days or so before we encounter some cooler temperatures again. At this stage, and guesses within 1C of the 81-10 average (14.1C) are still looking good.
Also, the minimum of 4.8C on the 8th is provisionally the 3rd earliest a sub 5C minimum has been recorded since at least 2003 (I can check more years later). In that time the first sub 5C min has occurred as early as August 31st, in 2012, to as late as November 1st in 2006.

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Sunny Sheffield still at 13C -2.5C below average. Rainfall unchanged.

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Doesn’t take much to get above normal temperatures these days unfortunately! Hope this global warming theory gets put to the test and Mother Nature replies back sometime!

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14.3 to the 12th

0.2c below the 61 to 90 average

0.7c below the 81 to 10 average

________________________________

Current high this month 14.7 to the 4th

Current low this month 13.4 to the 1st

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14.3 to the 12th

0.1c below the 61 to 90 average

0.7c below the 81 to 10 average

________________________________

Current high this month 14.7 to the 4th

Current low this month 13.4 to the 1st

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The EWP tracker had reached 19 mm by 12th, added perhaps 1 mm on 13th. (total 20 mm)

The ten-day GFS forecast amounts are very slight, in some places zero, could not see more than 5-10 mm being added to 23rd, then the last six days of the run also look rather dry with some rain looming from a southward dropping front at end of the run on 29th. 

No reason to change the provisional table from current last posted version of 40 mm. Anything lower than 40 can only benefit two scores in any case, and only one (Blast from the Past who said 20 mm) significantly. He's already shown making an upward move which could be slightly improved with a lower outcome. Depending on how much improvement in rank, his total (currently 10th) can pass some or all of the four players shown 6th to 9th for the year. The only other forecast below 40 mm was from myself and in the current scoring that was already second with a larger margin between annual scores, so that would not change from 14th with a slightly higher score. Everyone else is almost locked in at outcomes lower than 43 mm. (that table was posted a few days back). If it stays dry as predicted, Fred wins at any value 27.0 or lower, I'm at 34.2, holding down 27.2 to 37.0 and new entrant freeze had 40 mm with the next highest being 45 (Leo97t) and 46.2 from CheesepuffScott (If it goes a bit wetter he would go from 5th to 4th place). Chrisbell-notthewxman had 47.9 and DAVID SNOW had 49mm. with East Lancs Rain at 50 mm. There wouldn't be much significant change to the scoring until we got past 55 mm then it would reshuffle considerably as there are a lot of forecasts in the high 50s and 60s. Even at 49 mm, the best improvement DAVID SNOW can make relative to the table for 40 mm is just one position (15th to 14th). 

A moderately wetter outcome has a positive impact on Godber.1 who is the next driest at 56 mm, his total can move up from 9th to as high as 5th with the maximum score, although most of those being passed would improve slightly too so the net effect would be a cluster of similar scores.  

 

Edited by Roger J Smith

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14.2 to the 13th

0.1c below the 61 to 90 average

0.7c below the 81 to 10 average

________________________________

Current high this month 14.7 to the 4th

Current low this month 13.4 to the 1st

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Ok, I may be in with a slender chance to win the CET competition. 

Aside from a few spikes with temperature rises, I think this month will be around average / slightly below. 

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I was thinking we might be in the low 15s by early next week - however, the last few days have been cooler than I anticipated largely due to quite chilly minima. this month.. a final finish near average a good bet at this range, with an outside chance of something higher than 15 degrees - my hunch is a finish somewhere in the 14s.

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Sunny Sheffield at 13.4C -1.9C below normal. Rainfall 10.3mm 15.7% of the monthly rainfall.

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Sunny Sheffield still at 13.4C -1.8C below normal, Rainfall unchanged

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