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Storms and Convective discussion - 28th July 2019 onwards


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Had a huge storm yesterday afternoon.

Picture of last nights supercell in Edinburgh taken from portobello beach 

Satellite infra red imagery from the early hours of this morning showed quite a dark core for the low pressure system out in the bay of Biscay. I would take this to show that the low pressure system w

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Working from home day today and been treated to a nice flash of lightning, one last hurrah for the year!! 2019 has definitely been a better year for me storm wise, no classic but least there's been some.  Off to Dorset for a week tomorrow and hoping to see some stormy seas at some point!

Looks like the strike was close to the Little Barford power station again... no repeats of the power outages let's hope!

 

Edited by James1979
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57 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

Anyone else in the central south feel like giving up on this whole ‘storms’ thing?

It's been a terrible year. Everything seems to kick off North and East of me. I reckon Wiltshire & Gloucestershire has been the worst place for storms this year

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3 hours ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

Anyone else in the central south feel like giving up on this whole ‘storms’ thing?

Well I've had one decent storm back in July but that's the only day this year anythings happened here. Most days have been a struggle to get any decent showers here let alone storms. 

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Day 2 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Sun 29 Sep 2019 - 05:59 UTC Mon 30 Sep 2019

ISSUED 20:51 UTC Sat 28 Sep 2019

ISSUED BY: Dan

A surface low will track eastwards across England and Wales on Sunday, with a rather complex precipitation pattern as various pulses of rain, a combination of both dynamic and convective, gradually slide eastwards. Overall, instability is a little weak and so the risk of lightning is considered fairly low in any one location, but a few isolated strikes are possible.

Most models are in agreement for a convective cluster to drift eastwards from Somerset/Dorset at 06z to Essex/Kent by around 10z. While rather weak instability, fairly saturated profiles and limited convective depth suggests the risk of lightning is quite low, strong gusts of wind may occur with perhaps an isolated tornado.

By the afternoon, some cloud breaks may allow heating of the moist surface airmass. This may yield a few hundred J/kg CAPE, as drier air in the mid-levels overspreads this airmass. A few heavy showers could develop along the quasi-cold front (dewpoint change from 15-16C to 12-13C), aided by convergence along this boundary. It is questionable as to whether instability will be sufficient and/or convection deep enough to generate some lightning, and so for now we have refrained from issuing a low-end SLGT, but the area of greatest interest would be portions of East Anglia.

http://convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2019-09-29

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We were in with a chance of something in the early hours, but then when it turned up it was completely different to the forecast and - while the rain was very heavy - no squall materialised.

So another week passes and despite every day putting us at least on the edge of any risk zone - we’ve had nothing, it’s all developed to the NE and moved into East Anglia before developing storm characteristics.

And so into October, and with chances now dwindling for anything you could call ‘significant’ storm-wise, I think I’m throwing in the towel and joining the coldies until next year’s storm in July. Lol.

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Just woke up and noticed something black to the SE. I thought it would produce lightning because of how dark it was (it was darker in real life than what the camera shows) and it was only a small little shower! ?

FDF9E08C-2FE2-4160-936A-F47EB3C13F03.jpeg

4E3E0FC8-0CD1-4570-918C-06674A521BBF.png

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Day 2 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Mon 30 Sep 2019 - 05:59 UTC Tue 01 Oct 2019

ISSUED 19:52 UTC Sun 29 Sep 2019

ISSUED BY: Dan

Upper ridging will cover much of the British Isles through Monday daytime, suppressing deep convection - although showers will affect northern Scotland and the Northern Isles due to closer proximity to the upper trough over Scandinavia.

Meanwhile, the next Atlantic low pressure system will arrive from the southwest, with frontal rain spreading across much of Ireland, England and Wales. The cold front will have cleared most areas to the North Sea by midnight Monday night, but the frontal boundary will tend to straddle through the southern North Sea, eastern English Channel and Channel Islands for a few hours during the early hours of Tuesday. Convergence along this boundary, combined with a few hundred J/kg CAPE and a marked mid-level dry intrusion, may encourage pulses of deeper convection to occur, capable of producing isolated lightning strikes (generally offshore and into N / NE France due to the onshore flow). An isolated tornado may occur with this activity, including coastal parts of East Sussex and Kent.

Elsewhere, closer to the centre of the surface low, the cold pool aloft atop warm seas on Monday night will generate heavy showers and perhaps a few weakly-electrified thunderstorms around the coasts of S + W Ireland, then parts of the Celtic Sea into W Wales / SW England later in the night. 

In both cases, a couple of low-end SLGTs have been introduced, but confidence on much in the way of lightning is not particularly high.

http://convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2019-09-30

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Day 2 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Tue 01 Oct 2019 - 05:59 UTC Wed 02 Oct 2019

ISSUED 20:15 UTC Mon 30 Sep 2019

ISSUED BY: Dan

An upper low over the Irish Sea will drift gradually ESE-wards across England and Wales during Tuesday, becoming absorbed by the larger-scale upper trough over Scandinavia. At the surface, a slack pattern will evolve as an elongated area of low pressure slides eastwards.

Cool air aloft atop diurnal heating inland will yield 400-800 J/kg CAPE, which combined with low-level convergence and general large-scale forcing will aid the development of numerous showers, some electrified. The pattern becomes complicated due to areas of more dynamic rainfall in places, particularly across the north Midlands, north Wales and northern England. However, fairly saturated profiles casts some doubt over how much lightning activity there may be, but nonetheless a low-end SLGT has been issued where lightning is considered most likely.

Some small hail may occur in the most intense cells (1.0cm in diameter or so), and it is possible a few funnel clouds / weak tornado may also occur. However, the greatest threat will be localised flash flooding, given high moisture content (PWAT 24-26mm) and slow storm motion, leading to prolonged downpours on already saturated ground.

http://convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2019-10-01

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