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Storms and Convective discussion - 28th July 2019 onwards

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I think the forecasts may have got it a bit off today. Think the North are more likely to get the storms than the south.

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The WRF 06Z for my location shows CAPE building to 1500 J/kg by 7 pm. Steering wins from the ESE, then backing E from 4 pm, then NE from 7 pm but becoming light. Interesting. 

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Tipping down with rain here, near to the centre of the low. No thunder, no wind (though gusty earlier). A very Summer type of rain. 

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Just now, MetWeather said:

Northern storms are looking supercellular?!

Rainfall nearly off the scale looking at the radar!

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2 minutes ago, biddie said:

I think the forecasts may have got it a bit off today. Think the North are more likely to get the storms than the south.

Thank you, can't really see us getting anything today was just hoping!! Normally when we are going to get a storm the wind drops, the birds stop flying, the cows in the fields lay down and everything goes very still and quiet. Not very technical i know, and I can hear some of you chuckling, but it's true. Rain stopped now and sky brightening, still very warm.

 

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Distant thunder from some direction in Macclesfield now. Brief heavy shower.

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A few rumbles of thunder close-by here but nothing too dramatic, just one or two every couple of minutes coming from the Kinder Scout direction and heading towards Glossop.

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15 minutes ago, biddie said:

I think the forecasts may have got it a bit off today. Think the North are more likely to get the storms than the south.

Depends which forecasts you look at ? 

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NetW-sr Model has been pretty good regarding this afternoons storms/Cape levels & where.

viewimage.thumb.png.9e0ceed95af70c5ce6a4cb5de44a78a7.pngScreenshot_20190730-142243.thumb.jpg.3a9954cd27010aa522a733e601d5b1a1.jpg717535500_viewimage(1).thumb.png.5f03ec8116f863eec7277f0ecd358a2a.png

Edited by Polar Maritime
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Thundery showers here since about 13:45, most thunder heard til about 14:00 then mostly heavy rain. There was another rumble just a few seconds ago though.

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4 minutes ago, TJS1998Tom said:

Just saw bright flash of lightning coming from a storm towards Carnforth 

I'm just N of Carnforth and its thundering here .... no rain yet although its not far away looking at the sky.

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Some nice thunder and lightning here, not at all frequent but the cloudscapes were excellent before the rain wrapped it all up ?

D65688B9-CCB6-4DCA-ABB9-5DFFEC940424.jpeg

8668CFA2-47E3-4BBC-A65F-C2E5C34539DC.jpeg

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1 minute ago, Snow free zone said:

I'm just N of Carnforth and its thundering here .... no rain yet although its not far away looking at the sky.

I'm in Carnforth now and yeh does look close 

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 Kicking off all around me now. 

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More frequent thunder now, every 30 seconds or so as the storm lifts northwards. Difficult to catch much in the way of lightning though thanks to the rain.

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2 minutes ago, TJS1998Tom said:

I'm in Carnforth now and yeh does look close 

I'm currently in Lancaster and saw one flash but the lightning activity has significantly reduced around here and these storms are reluctantly heading westwards. 

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Some signs of some pretty high convection in SE Wales, multiple towers seen around me.

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Still nothing. By the time a shower comes it runs out of fuel. The best time and direction for storms is westerly in the winter 

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Given up on expecting anything thundery here, just plain old rain, so i'll just keep on watching with what's going on with the activity further north.

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Quite surprised how big these storms are. Wasn't expecting it to be this big

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  • Intense heat gone, but risk of heavy thundery downpours continue for the south

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