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Storms and Convective discussion - 28th July 2019 onwards


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Had a huge storm yesterday afternoon.

Picture of last nights supercell in Edinburgh taken from portobello beach 

Satellite infra red imagery from the early hours of this morning showed quite a dark core for the low pressure system out in the bay of Biscay. I would take this to show that the low pressure system w

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14 minutes ago, Another Kent clipper said:

I will be working when it kicks off.  This is last hoorah of 2019.  Wet, bright, loud, and homegrown.  Edit, zmstorm has taken the weather with him, to quote Crowded House.

IMG_20190826_214211.png

Hahahahahaha, I think I may be overreacting a little to be honest, and nah, I'm not that greedy ??

Edit: Hold on, do you mean I took the weather from Florida and bought it here?

Edited by zmstorm
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14 minutes ago, zmstorm said:

OH MY GOD, THIS IS THE FIRST TIME I HAVE GOTTEN EXCITED SINCE I ARRIVED IN FLORIDA

What about July 25th, 23rd, and June 24th?

I'm still waiting for a decent thunderstorm here, well over two years now.

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4 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

What about July 25th, 23rd, and June 24th?

I'm still waiting for a decent thunderstorm here, well over two years now.

I guess I got excited a little on June 24th, but not too much.

I was in Florida on both of those July dates.

And also, same here, the last severe thunderstorm I got (in the UK) was in May last year. I have never had a thunderstorm pass right overhead me (in the UK) since July 2017. I have had a few that have came close by, but not overhead.

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See some posts in here showing the BBC forecast for their areas.

As we know, the BBC obtain their forecasting from Meteogroup now.

 

Over the summer I've noticed that the met office has been more realistic about storms in my area. 

 

Most predicted by the BBC never happened.

What's the general view around here about the two?

BBC are strongly indicating storms tomorrow, Met Office say no.

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21 minutes ago, TJS1998Tom said:

Would be good if storms occurred around this time especially with it being darker earlier 

image.png

The %'s are a bit pants though but this is the BBC

like others have said a last big potential tomorrow and i will be on the pounce as in chasing options cos of a slack upper flow from the south and a convergence zone at 10m around Lincolnshire so slow moving showers/storms about to give us an easy chance to get in on them.

GFSOPUK12_30_3.thumb.png.e4603d78277b70e1c06c3d1a77b83d1f.pngGFSOPUK12_30_9.thumb.png.97f1e03eddb92032f8c2662992fcf64b.png

Cape/li index from 15:00 hrs

GFSOPUK12_27_11.thumb.png.cbb5706005c8eaa7b47810e8e960860e.pngGFSOPUK12_30_11.thumb.png.d78faf9ddafb77d14122e1a129603212.png

these are gfs charts so i will check in on now cast situations tomorrow?

 

 

Edited by Allseasons-si
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10 minutes ago, CarlJ said:

See some posts in here showing the BBC forecast for their areas.

As we know, the BBC obtain their forecasting from Meteogroup now.

 

Over the summer I've noticed that the met office has been more realistic about storms in my area

 

Most predicted by the BBC never happened.

What's the general view around here about the two?

BBC are strongly indicating storms tomorrow, Met Office say no.

What area is this?

Carl could you please pop into your profile and insert where you are from so as to know where you are in future,it would save clogging the thread up having to keep asking,thanks and welcome to netweather?

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There was a post a while back about how the automated apps completely miss elevated storms and the Met Office website doesn't deal with anything other than surface based storms very well at all - as in it just shows rain

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2 minutes ago, chapmanslade said:

There was a post a while back about how the automated apps completely miss elevated storms and the Met Office website doesn't deal with anything other than surface based storms very well at all - as in it just shows rain

The met office show this for 16:00 tomorrow,why they don't issue a warning for tomorrow is beyond me.

Untitled.thumb.png.4c3bd55fe6b86fef78830dd8a5312648.png

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12 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

The met office show this for 16:00 tomorrow,why they don't issue a warning for tomorrow is beyond me.

Untitled.thumb.png.4c3bd55fe6b86fef78830dd8a5312648.png

They will issue a warning tomorrow, mark my words.

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I see Estofex have popped a '1' warning over the area folks have been discussing above. As usual, it misses my place (sobs quietly into handkerchief).

Time to get the crap from a house clearance taken in from our patio. With the dry weather it's been laying around there for a few days. Don't want that getting wet.

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Day 1 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Tue 27 Aug 2019 - 05:59 UTC Wed 28 Aug 2019

ISSUED 08:05 UTC Tue 27 Aug 2019

ISSUED BY: Chris/Dan

UPDATE 08:05 UTC MDT introduced across eastern England, minor adjustments made to the SLGT.

A sharp upper trough will approach the British Isles from the Atlantic, as a frontal boundary moves into Ireland. A shortwave trough will also move northwards across Britain during day and this will help to trigger scattered thunderstorms by mid-to-late Tuesday afternoon and into the evening. 

Elevated morning convection may still be ongoing across southwestern portions of England and Wales at 0600 although this should weaken through the morning before the diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms re-develop. 

High surface temperatures (in excess of 30C in places) across central and eastern Britain will help to generate up to 1000 J/kg of CAPE by the afternoon. Steep lapse rates will also be present, although the main area of instability will be displaced slightly east of the shortwave that will move northeastwards across the Midlands by mid-afternoon. Deep layer shear through early afternoon will be around 30kts (although decreasing into the late afternoon and evening). The combination of shear and instability may trigger some severe weather during the early phase of the thunderstorm development. A supercell or two could be possible for a time producing hail up to 2cm in diameter.

The deep, rather high based convection (due in part to the surface temp and dew-point separation) is being triggered in the high res models around 1300-1400 in southern and western portions of the SLIGHT risk area before growing upscale as it moves northeastwards into a small MCS. The remnants of the MCS will move off the coast of NE England / SE Scotland around or just after midnight. 

A MODERATE risk will be considered for subsequent update

http://convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2019-08-27

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Met office thunderstorm warning 〽️

Most places will stay dry, but heavy showers and thunderstorms may cause some flooding and disruption to travel.

What to expect

There is a small chance that homes and businesses could be flooded quickly, with damage to some buildings from floodwater, lightning strikes, hail or strong winds

There is a small chance of fast flowing or deep floodwater causing danger to life and there is a small chance that some communities become cut off by flooded roads

Where flooding or lightning strikes occur, there is a chance of delays and some cancellations to train and bus services

There is a slight chance that power cuts could occur and other services to some homes and businesses could be lost

Spray and sudden flooding could lead to difficult driving conditions and some road closures

What should I do?

Get your camera out

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/warnings-and-advice/uk-warnings#?date=2019-08-27&id=80efd4d6-1e3a-4e5a-918c-9cd8b52e1d05

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Sun pretty hazy today which may cap the temperatures somewhat. We've used our allocation rumbles of Thunder and Storms up probably for the next ten years so expecting to be one of the many places staying dry int he warning.

 

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13 hours ago, Allseasons-si said:

What area is this?

Carl could you please pop into your profile and insert where you are from so as to know where you are in future,it would save clogging the thread up having to keep asking,thanks and welcome to netweather?

Just updated my profile. I'm just outside Darlington which does appear to be in the firing line today although the met office still predict rain here and no storms.

Thanks for the welcome. Been a long time since I've been around ?

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