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Storms and Convective discussion - 28th July 2019 onwards

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Looks like a Birmingham Clipper this time around!

Thanks for the Clearwater video. Presumably positive strikes - very one-shot and fast.

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Posted (edited)
18 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

 

i won't go on about specific's as it does look messy but Brickfielder  posted a good post above^

 

Thanks Allseason-si --- I appreciate the reply.

I check out all three forecasts multiple times a day. But that doesn't satisfy me. I need to understand WHY they say what they say. And whilst they all concur T-storms for Bradford are likely tomorrow for a good 12 hours - I just can't see that in the GFS charts (the free ones available on net weather) when I look. I did see Brickfielders post, but it all seems to say 'yay' for the south west - but Im in the North West and I couldn't see much in his / her post about Yorkshire, or what it is that is making Yorkshire such a forecastable hotspot for storms tomorrow. I know this is me lacking in knowledge - but I want to gain knowledge and not just take a websites word for it!!! For instance, do you know where I can find (free to view) skew T's for the Yorkshire region? And when you compare the GFS precipitation chart for 9pm tomorrow for Bradford, there is a big bullseye of heavy rain that stays around a while, but there is no corresponding bullseye on the GFS storm / CAPE/Li forecast, but yet the generalised forecasts for all websites still forecasts storms. What is it that Im missing? What charts should I be looking at? 

 

 

Edited by Stormchick

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5 minutes ago, Stormchick said:

 

I am not good at presenting scientific data as regards of Skew-t's etc but i am sure someone will,i am just an extreme storm nut like most on here,forecasting or pinpointing storms is very difficult to forecast and most of the video forecast's are just a general forecast to cover the uk and storms as always are hit and miss,it's best just to keep an eye on the radar tomorrow

https://www.netweather.tv/live-weather/radar

Lightning detectors

 http://map.blitzortung.org/#4.71/54.36/-9.04

https://www.lightningmaps.org/#m=oss;t=3;s=200;o=0;b=0.00;ts=0;z=6;y=51.3512;x=-8.3826;d=2;dl=2;dc=0;

Satellite and cloud tops.

 https://en.sat24.com/en

https://en.sat24.com/en/eu/km

i hope this helps.

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Hope this happens for us here, we have a good view of the sea so would be awesome to see distant lightning at least across it 

image.thumb.png.70be443fb10d37af9c6f24152fd097ec.png

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Lots of wavy lines, from the smallest of showers.. i'm hoping to get a timelapse out of a videos i'm currently filming.
I would be interested to know why clouds get lines like these.

IMG_4625.thumb.JPG.dffcc977f597d79948852d1f7fd4c2da.JPG

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I can add another picture to that, does it symbolise thundery skies ? The clouds look rather deep.. and in the same sentence, looks like i'm looking at a land mass made out of clouds.. really can't get any pictures to that draw out what I see
 DSC_7122.thumb.JPG.05f1f40d01d590a9e4cb260498bdaa00.JPG

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Undulating clouds, same here in Cardiff 

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Looks like altostratus undulatus to me. Basically an instability in the mid layers of the atmosphere due to falling heights.

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4 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Looks like altostratus undulatus to me. Basically an instability in the mid layers of the atmosphere due to falling heights.

With the depth of ridges, looks more like Asperatus.

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38 minutes ago, Gael_Force said:

With the depth of ridges, looks more like Asperatus.

Yes, possibly so. Almost added the asperatus but wasn't 100%

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thunderstorm seems to be quite far off the SW Coast.. quite an active Cell too!! .. Surprised nothing has triggered in Cornwall 

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A lovely sight to behold watching that low bully it’s way in, hopefully setting up a lovely photogenic convective day for us all! 

Anyone else noticed that the remnants of last weeks plume are now knocking on the door of Iceland lol. From Europe with love! 

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21 minutes ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

A lovely sight to behold watching that low bully it’s way in, hopefully setting up a lovely photogenic convective day for us all! 

Anyone else noticed that the remnants of last weeks plume are now knocking on the door of Iceland lol. From Europe with love! 

Indeed producing lightning as it approaches   quite rare for up there 

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10 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

Thunderstorm warning issued for Wednesday

Yellow warning for thunderstorms issued

00:00 Wed 31 to 23:59 Wed 31

Further thunderstorms likely with a chance of flooding in places and possible travel disruption.

What to expect

  • There is a small chance that homes and businesses could be flooded quickly, with damage to some buildings from floodwater, lightning strikes, hail or strong winds
  • There is a small chance of fast flowing or deep floodwater causing dangerous conditions.
  • Where flooding or lightning strikes occur, there is a chance of delays and some cancellations to train and bus services
  • Spray and sudden flooding could lead to difficult driving conditions and some road closures
  • There is a slight chance that power cuts could occur and other services to some homes and businesses could be lost

Thunderstorms and outbreaks of heavy rain already affecting some southern and western parts of the warning area during the early hours of Wednesday then become more widespread through Wednesday daytime. In a few places these thunderstorms could produce 30 mm of rainfall in an hour and 40 to 50 mm in a few hours. Some parts of the warning area will miss the heaviest rainfall.

download.thumb.png.0c164eaa6a61a51b17369689c635a0c0.png

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/warnings-and-advice/uk-warnings#?date=2019-07-31&id=64438111-ee05-49a5-84b8-6695f2af4228&details 

the get out clause of that forecast and tomorrow's forecast is outbreaks of heavy rain , if people are reading into that forecast that everywhere will get thunderstorms I think a few will be disappointed with just heavy rain and the closest they'll get to a lightning strike will be watching replays from last week

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UKV Precip accumulation chart:

viewimage.thumb.png.9a7b4f8f163f04284a189f66c312c36f.png

It won't end up like that due to the scattered nature of the showers. However, it shows where the core of the most persistent rainfall will be due to the wrap-around as the low exits out in to the North sea.

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Evening everyone... Currently out with the hound for his evening walkies across the fields before bedtime, and I’ve just clocked some ACCAS starting to brew up to my south. :oldgood:

600ED397-8A1C-4281-82A2-5966ECB62624.jpeg

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MetOffice seem really bullish in regards to thunderstorm risk tommorow. Is it going to be more fork lightning rather the elevated lightning of late?

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1 minute ago, AppleUK 123 said:

MetOffice seem really bullish in regards to thunderstorm risk tommorow. Is it going to be more fork lightning rather the elevated lightning of late?

I wouldn't say bullish. The warning matrix is as low as you can get in terms of likelihood.

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Yeah I agree. I was talking more in terms of there automated forecasts which indicate many hours of thunderstorms tomorrow. Although I know we shouldn’t take automated forecasts literally. 

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Just had a 30 second heavy shower. Looks like the only shower anywhere near here was over me.

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I’m hoping that a couple of little storms form in the south east around London tomorrow or Wednesday from this low because surprisingly almost all of the main events have missed London to the west or east this year apart from Friday morning which put on a decent show

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10 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

I wouldn't say bullish. The warning matrix is as low as you can get in terms of likelihood.

Indeed, the Met forecast map makes it look like part of the country is going to be covered in thunderstorms for a good few hours. I don’t think it’s going to be anywhere near like that but if you get caught under one of these showers you will certainly know it. For me what’s possibly more of note is the forecast high winds, particularly along the coasts.

Should make for interesting radar watching tomorrow.

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Convective Weather Forecast

Day 2 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Tue 30 Jul 2019 - 05:59 UTC Wed 31 Jul 2019

ISSUED 20:38 UTC Mon 29 Jul 2019

ISSUED BY: null

A near-vertically-stacked low (slightly tilted to the NW with height) will drift slowly northeastwards from Devon to Yorkshire through Tuesday and Tuesday night. The associated upper cold pool will overspread warm SSTs and diurnally-heated land to bring a day of widespread deep convection. 

 

Showers and perhaps a few weakly-electrified thunderstorms will already be affecting parts of SW England / S Wales early on Tuesday morning, and are expected to expand in coverage across much of Britain through the day - organising into distinct circular bands rotating around the main surface low centre. Instability will increase through the day in response to diurnal heating, with 300-700 J/kg CAPE likely fairly widely, and up to 1,000 J/kg CAPE in parts of northern England and SW Scotland.

 

Almost any shower could produce a few sporadic lightning strikes, although fairly saturated profiles / excessive cloud cover and fairly weak shear will tend to limit the lightning potential. That said, a zone of steep mid-level lapse rates will exist on the northern flank of the upper low, in an environment with some reasonable shear and good forcing aloft, after a morning of relatively cloud-free skies - hence conditions will be favourable for a greater coverage of lightning activity over N / NW England, adjacent Irish Sea and perhaps SW Scotland, especially enhanced by both orographic forcing and low-level convergence during the afternoon and evening hours.

As such, a MDT has been issued for the risk of lightning - and here hail up to 2.0cm in diameter will be possible from the strongest cells. An isolated supercell cannot be ruled out if organised convection can develop relatively early before shear reduces through the afternoon.

 

The main threats will be flash flooding from both slow storm-motion (so prolonged downpours), but also shower training over similar areas - especially given already saturated ground from recent heavy rain over the NW Midlands / NW England etc. There could also be quite a few funnel clouds / weak tornadoes (or waterspout) close to the low centre (so primarily in a zone from the West Country to the W Midlands, and later NW England).

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2019-07-30

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Loads of storms around me at the moment

2186CCD7-D6EA-4199-B815-6EC7D499E859.jpeg

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Ooooo looks like I'm in the moderate zone tomorrow for where I'm staying, should be interesting

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