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Paul

Model output discussion - hot spell beckons but then what?

Paul

This thread = Models, models and more models
Please remember that this thread is for discussing the model output only. If you want to chat about the summer weather more generally, please use the Summer chat and moans thread.

Message added by Paul

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The EPS mean anomaly continues to indicate the TPV over NW Canada and quite a strong westerly upper flow across the Atlantic  as the whole pattern adjusts east and thus the Atlantic trough becoming more influential. NOAA pretty much on the same page

5-10.thumb.png.6bb96d81e15c370fe7b8841c1e06bc62.png610day_03.thumb.gif.bd5da4e15bad913ef574bae6bc6ad46e.gif

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Euro better than the GFS but that is because it develops a TS which powers up the jet.

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Posted (edited)

The North Atlantic 500mb and surface analysis for midnight

gfs-natl_wide-z500_anom-6518400.thumb.png.745cee87d9ce01a387c19a7c140f9d0e.pngPPVA89.thumb.gif.9acf7d35d73764336e616b669a8a21c2.gif

The rain will finally clear northern Scotland this morning albeit remaining quite cloudy and breezy. There may also be cloud down some western regions but elsewhere once any early morning mist/fog has cleared a sunny and much warmer day than of late 

PPVE89.thumb.gif.705ed918527ca4a0a536e508c6cce23e.gif2mtemp_d02_21.thumb.png.85cc09dd6e7756daa47255ba3f1ab8a4.png

Tonight the shallow low and associated fronts are quite close to N. Ireland and western Scotland so perhaps some patchy rain here  Clear and quite nippy elsewhere with mist/fog patches forming

PPVG89.thumb.gif.e65293d8eb5fbd26cf3b958e7655ca9b.gif

By midday tomorrow the upper trough just to the west is starting to deconstruct resulting in it becoming a very warm day and hot in the south east. But the trailing front associated with the trough will still bring cloud and intermittent rain to the north west. And note in the western Atlantic the next upper trough has arrived on the scene

gfs-natl_wide-z500_anom-6648000.thumb.png.1ef533c656fc64b4b8f458706213f460.pngPPVI89.thumb.gif.327308c8d2f294989ac580660743f62b.gif2mtemp_d02_45.thumb.png.9247a2a0e1bd6942f28b7733399b71c2.png

The trough continues to deconstruct over Saturday night through Sunday, en route to creating a cut off upper low, whilst amplification occurs to the west. But the gfs has a shallow low forming on the weakening front which could activate some showery activity on another hot day

gfs-natl_wide-z500_anom-6734400.thumb.png.401c3f39ed1ffb85994b31ac1b2109ff.png458600842_sun18.thumb.png.ecba5d3aed7519808f72243f59c0afa8.png

PPVK89.thumb.gif.cf3e5b36158d0fa80b46596633b709d3.gifgfs-uk-t2m_c_max6-6756000.thumb.png.70592174457d50e508dbb30ffc4b6f54.png

The amplification to the west continues on Monday and this may bring some rain to the far NW. Further south the shallow low continues to promote some showery activity on an otherwise sunny but not quite so hot day.

552330801_mon18.thumb.png.9bad900897dc0615e5f0444e5bb2142e.pngPPVM89.thumb.gif.ef0975306213c8b7d36e0ef4db9e3bce.gifgfs-uk-t2m_c_max6-6842400.thumb.png.704c575f97430332875ede5941aed79f.png

Tuesday sees rain into the north west as the low and associated front take closer order

452066817_tues18.thumb.png.58e07b12ef0f36a934d927a7d0a208b1.pngPPVO89.thumb.gif.ac6fe6c1a88ba52444f97dbad11225d5.gifgfs-uk-t2m_c_max6-6928800.thumb.png.2c4bbf66cf17befa97b793214f4e3286.png

Edited by knocker

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According to the gfs the continuing amplification of the subtropical high zones 'traps' the upper low near Iceland resulting very much in a N/S divide over the UK with it becoming generally unsettled in the north and generally much cooler than the forthcoming temps But the detail for this period is far from settled

gfs-nhemi-z500_anom_5day-7382400.thumb.png.4ad049298c5e0a902dc68631c224edd8.pnggfs-eur-t2m_c_anom_5day-7382400.thumb.png.20bd6af1a7a5c57a8fd9699a487cd140.png

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All models now have the upper low interfering into Monday next week and killing off the heat. Shame.

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9 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

All models now have the upper low interfering into Monday next week and killing off the heat. Shame.

Absolutely infuriating, only in the UK could this happen. How can this sort of thing happen at such short notice? Very little sign of it yesterday and suddenly our heat is scuppered only a couple of days out. Enough to hasten my emigration.

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Posted (edited)

The ecm Monday/Tues

ecmwf-eur-vort500_z500-6820800.thumb.png.3d6438a9f39651fc01d1265c4e6523ba.pngecmwf-eur-vort500_z500-6907200.thumb.png.7cf5ec493714434c66a2e8af7acd553e.png

ecmwf-uk-t2m_c_max6-6842400.thumb.png.ad523266eea5bda5e32a0378f20b7e84.pngecmwf-uk-t850_mslp_prcp6hr-6928800.thumb.png.6d81d4014c98c61e3fdd7730ad7c5e05.png

And by midday Thursday

ecmwf-natl_wide-vort500_z500-7080000.thumb.png.ea39c515aa3fe97c9b48a3f023a30f67.png

Edited by knocker

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Bank Holiday Monday potentially gone from a scorcher to average with rain around. Only in the UK.

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Looking beyond the bank holiday towards the end of the month, the GEM indicates that high pressure could win out and deliver a fine end to August and a promising start to September.  Unfortunately the GFS has a different view, building a much deeper low pressure to the north and keeping any high pressure bottled up in the Atlantic:

+90hrs (26/08) -  +192hrs (31/08):

GEM:                                                              GFS:

GEM_won1.thumb.gif.d1ad8af8c6b1160fb03e88835bb9c760.gif   gfs_rsj9.thumb.gif.fdbe01ea4337eeb5fbe03b1fbf576fd5.gif

 Which one is right?  Or are they both wrong?  Not too long before we find out but it would be good to have a late summer spell of warm and dry weather after a damp, windy and cool August (only in the west, obviously....)

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1 hour ago, mb018538 said:

Bank Holiday Monday potentially gone from a scorcher to average with rain around. Only in the UK.

UKMO doesn't look too bad dry for the majority away from the far west

6-hours to noon                                         6-hours from noon to 6pm

us_model-en-999-0_modgbr_2019082300_84_5595_83.thumb.png.455884308999c0bf273ea58cd7bc67bd.pngus_model-en-999-0_modgbr_2019082300_90_5595_83.thumb.png.c1202fd16bca56fde55842b5586bdf76.png

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The GEFS 00Z ensembles don't look too bad, to me; only two or three days (out of sixteen!) below 21C hardly seems catastrophic?:oldgrin:

t850London.png   prmslLondon.png

t2mLondon.png   prcpLondon.png

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Looking at the GEFS 0z mean, early September may not be too bad, there's a fair chance of high pressure, at least across the south. In the meantime, enjoy this upcoming very warm and sunny Bank Holiday weekend...indeed hot further s / se! 👍🔥🌞

21_330_500mb.thumb.png.2700b6ae23013933c9b1afef5c269f86.png

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2 hours ago, mb018538 said:

Bank Holiday Monday potentially gone from a scorcher to average with rain around. Only in the UK.

eh?..... where?

 

norain.gif

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Posted (edited)
8 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

eh?..... where?

 

norain.gif

Depends what model is right...

image.thumb.png.b3e0941c9734a66d284f67e126eb057f.pngimage.png.3e4dfe04ddf1b545b596080962e146ef.png

If the ECM op is right then expect cloud/showers and tops of 23-24c....thankfully it sits at the bottom end of the ensemble pack.

N.b - that chart you posted is from last night. This mornings chart is far messier:

image.thumb.png.1fc0437526510564201267715cdbabab.png

Edited by mb018538

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GFS 6z has the feature sliding more down the west of the UK, and sitting off the Cornwall coast by 2pm Monday:

image.thumb.png.abd28be9a619db88ce78244eda35f80a.png

Net result is the hottest air doesn't get dislodged across the E/SE:

image.thumb.png.0846fd7cc81e02ff83d942d9493231b3.png

Leading to another very hot day up to 30-32c in the SE:

image.thumb.png.9cb272a8d5365340cac35c1bd276447c.png

This will still take a fair bit of sorting out I feel.

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47 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

N.b - that chart you posted is from last night. This mornings chart is far messier:

image.thumb.png.1fc0437526510564201267715cdbabab.png

That's because they only update once a day and the chart you posted is an earlier time frame to that of the one Rob posted.

Even if that is the outcome, it's a weakening front that will mainly consist of cloud and will burn off as the day progresses.

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38 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

That's because they only update once a day and the chart you posted is an earlier time frame to that of the one Rob posted.

Even if that is the outcome, it's a weakening front that will mainly consist of cloud and will burn off as the day progresses.

No it isn't - they are both for the same time, 12 on Monday. The more recent chart has the front whereas yesterday's doesn't. Although it's a decaying front, it'll still interfere somewhat, and there is cooler air mixed in (as shown on those gfs charts). If the blob of cooler air slides SE a la ECM, then 23-24c is very realistic. Met only going for 26c now, a couple of days ago they forecast 32c.

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Posted (edited)

UKV temps for Sun/Mon/Tue, Some stark differences in the far S/E to the rest of the UK. All down to how much the cloud can burn off so time for change yet..

822522335_viewimage(32).thumb.png.c96bf92f7aeff177e89afceda5d32c7d.png1845086493_viewimage(33).thumb.png.fb92b0fa62d627d51ee406316e39c6b5.png163426235_viewimage(34).thumb.png.3bc20cbd76e3472f4b309b5b236a6d2c.png

Edited by Polar Maritime

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8 minutes ago, Polar Maritime said:

UKV temps for Sun/Mon/Tue, Some stark differences in the far S/E to the rest of the UK. All down to how much the cloud can burn off so time for change yet..

822522335_viewimage(32).thumb.png.c96bf92f7aeff177e89afceda5d32c7d.png1845086493_viewimage(33).thumb.png.fb92b0fa62d627d51ee406316e39c6b5.png163426235_viewimage(34).thumb.png.3bc20cbd76e3472f4b309b5b236a6d2c.png

Wow!!what a difference between this and the gfs!!gfs goes high twenties close to 30 widely on all 3 days!!

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Monday really is up in the air, GFS 06z takes the little feature further south west meaning a very hot day likely with widespread 30’s in the south east and high twenties across almost all of England....

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7 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Monday really is up in the air, GFS 06z takes the little feature further south west meaning a very hot day likely with widespread 30’s in the south east and high twenties across almost all of England....

In situations such as this, i like to side with the law of sod. We all know the crud solution will win out.

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39 minutes ago, Polar Maritime said:

UKV temps for Sun/Mon/Tue, Some stark differences in the far S/E to the rest of the UK. All down to how much the cloud can burn off so time for change yet..

822522335_viewimage(32).thumb.png.c96bf92f7aeff177e89afceda5d32c7d.png1845086493_viewimage(33).thumb.png.fb92b0fa62d627d51ee406316e39c6b5.png163426235_viewimage(34).thumb.png.3bc20cbd76e3472f4b309b5b236a6d2c.png

Sorry that looks way too extreme for me, if that scenario comes off I think I will leave the country instantly! The GFS 06z looks a lot clearer again and as a result the temps get a lot hotter nationwide.

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Shocking from the GEFS 06Z ensembles! Maybe THREE WHOLE DAYS' temps below 21C? Summer's over and winter's about to set in!:oldlaugh:

t850London.png   prmslLondon.png

t2mLondon.png   prcpLondon.png

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What a saga this is, with that upper low this weekend.

Slight differences in initial conditions having a large impact on where the cooler air heads, both aloft and at the surface.

Essentially, it makes the difference between a fresh Atlantic westerly breeze and a hot continental one from the southeast or east.


Related to this, details continue to look uncertain out to Thu next week too, as it's unclear to what extent there will be a low hanging out to our southwest and messing with the Atlantic westerlies.

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Polar Maritime said:

UKV temps for Sun/Mon/Tue, Some stark differences in the far S/E to the rest of the UK. All down to how much the cloud can burn off so time for change yet..

822522335_viewimage(32).thumb.png.c96bf92f7aeff177e89afceda5d32c7d.png1845086493_viewimage(33).thumb.png.fb92b0fa62d627d51ee406316e39c6b5.png163426235_viewimage(34).thumb.png.3bc20cbd76e3472f4b309b5b236a6d2c.png

Well for SW areas of the UK, the models have consistently shown any real warmth to be nothing more than a 'glancing blow' on Saturday, this still remains the case as 25-26C is still very much possible, sea breezes around the coast will keep it a bit cooler but still very pleasant and with a high UV in all areas. Sunday then turns much fresher with a mix of cloud and sunshine and it looks like staying dry into the start of next week, so looking pretty good even though the warmth only lasts a day. Some reasonable CAPE by Monday in eastern areas but I don't think much will come out of it. ⛅🍦🍺😎 

image.jpeg

image.jpeg

Edited by Jonathan Rhodri Roberts

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