Jump to content
Sign in to follow this  
Paul

Model output discussion - hot spell beckons but then what?

Paul

This thread = Models, models and more models
Please remember that this thread is for discussing the model output only. If you want to chat about the summer weather more generally, please use the Summer chat and moans thread.

Message added by Paul

Recommended Posts

Posted (edited)

GFS this morning once again showing a warm S/E flow into next weekend, With temps touching 30c locally in the South.

366304726_viewimage(24).thumb.png.4c7c5e6040bff1df6d6345e9ba20d8e0.png

Edited by Polar Maritime

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)

To continue with the gfs

Over Friday and Saturday the amplification of the high pressure zones forces the tough south which initiates WAA into the UK

gfs-nhemi-z500_anom-6561600.thumb.png.185ea930d9c7cc6e26393fcb90ad29fd.pnggfs-nhemi-z500_anom-6648000.thumb.png.9258f3dadafb30040cdad68c764e7a09.pnggfs-eur-t850_anom_stream-6669600.thumb.png.fa39bf722a9dfe502e1ce6cef4e9c38a.png

It then completely deconstructs the trough creating a quite intense upper low to the south west of the UK which of course facilitates the convection of even warmer air. Given the complete disparity with previous runs and other models this outcome should be treated with some suspicion  imo. The models appear to be struggling with the energy distribution and thus the trough/high zones interaction

gfs-nhemi-z500_anom-6734400.thumb.png.4526f1466224e246c3e0ffad349bdd3f.png

Edited by knocker

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

In some ways the ecm is not dissimilar to the gfs but is has the upper low quite close to the UK and thus showery rain on Sunday and Monday albeit quite warm As already stated the detail a long way from being redolved

156.thumb.png.7155fcf0202ce29076dc9fd9b8395fcd.png180.thumb.png.4cd03cebdbf3d10332ab1bd1446230f2.png204.thumb.png.b1954a5f47aac347dcf163807b770469.pngindex.thumb.png.00b58c9cafaac81fd33e84cdfd2f9853.png228.thumb.png.fd774bb3966d2fa8eb5a72b2935eb762.png

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

This morning's GFS 00Z run certainly contains cause for optimism; though, how close it is to reality remains to be seen...:oldgrin:

h850t850eu.png   h500slp.png

The 00Z ensembles don't look at all shabby, either::oldgood:

prmslLondon.png   t850London.png

t2mLondon.png   prcpLondon.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)

A bit tricky to evaluate which would be the better solution for next weekend. Completely deconstruct the trough and initiate WAA would be the warmer solution but risks showery downpours or shunt the trough out of the way and have the high ridge in from the south west which could lead to a N/S split and not quite so pleasant in the north

And of course the models may find another way 😉

Edited by knocker

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Fascinating output this morning, chance of a late August plume and a very good chance of high pressure gradually becoming the dominant feature, the week ahead looks a north / south split with the south doing best.👍

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)

The Ecm 0z ensemble mean shows late summer improvement on the way, especially for southern uk with high pressure / strong ridging and increasing warmth!! ..and the Ecm 0z operational plume!!!...things are looking up!👍🌞 🔥

EDM1-144.thumb.gif.e6083e9b3609a123c5bf6b5818c94418.gifEDM1-168.thumb.gif.e876424188d8c60e5693f9a2327d5868.gifEDM0-168.thumb.gif.33e0362d6a96e87fac8450c3307156a9.gifEDM1-192.thumb.gif.965a904c3f9d06a6a49ebbdd857f4c8f.gifEDM0-192.thumb.gif.470daa7fe9b5cb347b0c278771b14375.gifEDM1-216.thumb.gif.675ead71d308380c904441335999bdcf.gifEDM1-240.thumb.gif.21a6e00a44acd5005b666d282e98d4f0.gifEDM0-240.thumb.gif.9117566eeac3bb682cd9ca32c6505574.gif216_thickuk.thumb.png.682d39c47331415e32ce3bea54c0789b.png216_mslp500.thumb.png.8fd8961c15beaff41d75054bab3919cb.png240_thickuk.thumb.png.06451e5d2f17197824bec1e95c4f72e3.png240_mslp850.thumb.png.fb3460f1f61f4506c5a2d4eb70abcd9b.png

 

Edited by Jon Snow

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)

The GFS 6z tries but fails reg next weekends signals for a rise in pressure bar the far S/E, As the Low that was model'd to sit to our S/West moves through over the UK off the Atlantic into Wk2. All very messy into the run and so still lots to be resolved. 

1010310066_viewimage(25).thumb.png.ae5c2117087c0ce306ef7f2901102072.png1799207599_viewimage(26).thumb.png.d2b0f8c7d74367228d54c75ad460f675.png

 

Edited by Polar Maritime

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The GEFS 06Z ensembles are a bit of a scatter-fest after Day 8...?:oldsorry:

t850London.png   prmslLondon.png

t2mLondon.png   prcpLondon.png

Temps mostly a couple of degrees either side of 20C won't be too bad, however.:oldgood:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

A lot to be resolved it seems in the coming week. More in the way of settled Conditions away from the NW during the week ahead... The problem is next weekend.... Are we looking at a NE/SE split, or do we see the unsettled conditions spreading further SE! The extended ecm ensembles shows a slight decrease in pressure towards the end of the month... Personally I think the bank holiday maybe a tad mixed.... Especially away from the SE.. At this stage it looks like the real improvement will take place as we move into September! No surprises there then.... Far from a done deal though is next weekend. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Better than this time yesterday

meteosat-msg_naturalenhncd_overlay-ne_10m_coastline_overlay-ne_10m_admin_0_boundary_lines_land.thumb.jpg.39384923b1fa4ddcad3cd36e74bb6704.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)

The gfs continues to deconstruct the trough and create the cut off upper low to south west but further complicates matters by allowing the high to the west sneak a ridge over the top

278989380_sat12.thumb.png.21576d847810859f810f654b5fa6742e.png300129945_sun12.thumb.png.82d5b92c638bdcce8e40e6b316f2c60f.png171113526_mon12.thumb.png.84e3a18f39e9c8c85360893005ce3c88.png

 

Edited by knocker

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)

The Gfs 12z operational is sniffing around for another plume like yesterday's 12z and this mornings Ecm 0z operational..could we see another plume.... the third this summer?...to be honest, I would be happy to see a sustained spell of warm fine weather following this rubbish August so far!👍

12_198_mslp850.thumb.png.3c9eb264ef3828f73f07a170693007d8.png12_198_ukthickness850.thumb.png.24c1c163d2c1b86a63e285611af531c1.png12_222_mslp850.thumb.png.893a4f9cf4cb5a2e89f86aa2718ab033.png12_222_ukthickness850.thumb.png.9bae48dfcc66ecd6a91bb244a88ab2c4.png12_264_ukthickness850.thumb.png.649a9581b86f3fbce4cd5b726fbd600c.png12_264_mslp850.thumb.png.eed34fd0bf3f1dcd2b2ceba579a15a88.png

Edited by JON SNOW

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Something funny happens on August 25th (GEFS 12Z ensembles)...the op and control have a minor difference of opinion!:shok:

t850London.png   prmslLondon.png

t2mLondon.png   prcpLondon.png

Anywho, it looks as if it's the control that has dropped a testicle?:help:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

And the ecm takes the other option. All still to play for

162.thumb.png.4081f32d9ca4804515e7fed74bc325c4.png192.thumb.png.767998cc265d833d0f01d57c8826326f.pngindex.thumb.png.892460931511a6ce51368f7cb731c133.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Hello everyone, I've not been following the models run to run for the last few weeks of utter dross, so as much as an exercise for me to get up to speed with the improving position, here's a snapshot of the models at T144:

image.thumb.jpg.9066dfef563d9ad3f2da0dc13e831687.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.267830d7de1246c04dedd7eef543591c.jpg

image.thumb.jpg.61d3b9f490c9560008e3300526349cec.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.fd0e161d2c02a595187b3172ad4b21aa.jpg

image.thumb.jpg.641ff7d734eb1aefa0135c6e517c9190.jpg

at this time, GFS, GeM and ECM look best placed to provide a warm and settled spell, but there's quite a lot of uncertainty even at this stage...

Ffwd to T240, and ECM and GEM head towards a decent position with a ridge, while GFS develops it's own heat pump:

image.thumb.jpg.03ebaf55eb6ee745cb767e9cebc84953.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.8ddae4e92bb881a807550a1372cfca35.jpg

image.thumb.jpg.7609a4157266ccc2565a2145fc3a0a33.jpg

So yeah! Summer returns but in what form in the longer timeframe may depend on how that cut off low behaves in the medium term....we will see!

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Too soon to forget July after this abysmal start to August?  It's not  impossible summer could make an impressive return, GEM ensemble P5 best example of potential at T276:

image.thumb.jpg.b631caab4b76f688af7312bc7590d64e.jpg

Winter thoughts start to stir now and here's a quick look at what CFS is saying for December - always need to look at a reasonable number of runs with CFS, here's the last 9 runs Z500 anomalies:

image.thumb.jpg.b6ccffbd10780915ba3ec1b6c1d51eb3.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.884754f186dcd47515bb709bf5f18c46.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.78448b8adff4aa20bf156f609ec72388.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.d85d84e175f32d6fc2e20f8586d714be.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.aa9102e409a99a747182f18372a9478d.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.484648809af3dca1bbc3f5424a11b0e7.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.a90d53c0f55418341e66f536c880b046.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.c8fd91087ef23d79a67e123633770929.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.a112e1270e1bf6a7b0ab5f2fa7a9c43a.jpg

Mixed bunch, plenty to keep us interested, but the main interest will be how these predictions evolve as we get closer....we will see!

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Looking at last evening's clusters for the weekend the percentage play would be ridging from the south west thus tending towards a N/S split and then lets just wait for the next run

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2019081712_168.thumb.png.19a4d0b9ef47334d331c028ecc4a6658.pngec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2019081712_192.thumb.png.2e3479aaf3b89cdd6d5aac8b13f028e0.pngec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2019081712_216.thumb.png.497dec5f7417f0e1138667e2a4250e1e.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)

The North Atlantic 500mb and surface analysis for midnight and the 0300 sat image

gfs-natl_wide-z500_anom-6086400.thumb.png.5274a466332555f4c80f2dfc4768a633.pngPPVA89.thumb.gif.a1bbccd16269455e9d7b58fe9c562d8e.gifmeteosat-msg_ir108_overlay-ne_10m_coastline_overlay-ne_10m_admin_0_boundary_lines_land.thumb.jpg.53746f2c02fb0fef25366af411c8f8e3.jpg

Once the rain has cleared the south east this morning today will be a sunshine and showers day with the country still within the circulation of the low which is drifting slowly north of Scotland, thus still windy in the north. These will be more frequent in the north and west, with thunder in the mix, and could well coalesce at times courtesy of troughs/fronts running around in the circulation

PPVE89.thumb.gif.42b3e3d8a9b7d8c564e3bed86b976b3d.gif732366824_maxsun.thumb.png.751821dfe2fbed2fcb8ebf62e30a60ea.pngmeanreflec_d02_15.thumb.png.cbfd6d174f4ae8747ed40ac5425486dd.pngmeanreflec_d02_18.thumb.png.9a00a3e56bc849038afe5e8a99c4e9c4.pngmeanreflec_d02_21.thumb.png.32ca63bb67fb0b86d08b9bfc18d76583.pngmeanreflec_d02_24.thumb.png.8b6d4b6e4b1beb1e51a4bd3b9c6519a7.png

A similar story this evening and overnight with the showers again concentrated in the north and west with eastern regions staying dry and clear.

PPVG89.thumb.gif.5430f172fc0b6d9d3c20f8887e9794b4.gifprecip_d02_29.thumb.png.6231d9ea440a5754a0798c3c6c0d1f6d.pngprecip_d02_36.thumb.png.c6a9b6344271f346e78ed9d5e23fda07.png

And much the same on Monday although the wind will abate as the low continues to drift north. But the showers will become more frequent and persistent in Scotland courtesy of an occlusion that has tracked south east

PPVI89.thumb.gif.74977264019f456391bf7dada0947ab0.gif965082089_maxmon.thumb.png.6711d04e9ddeaaa7e853dcbfa44eac7b.pngprecip_d02_45.thumb.png.fd3a78b84ab64b354c50d6ea748ef22c.png

The occlusion continues to track south east overnight and into Tuesday so still showers around here, otherwise dry with sunny intervals with much lighter winds as the low continues Ir's travels north

PPVJ89.thumb.gif.d97cbf796d9f4f90c1792f87cdd7507d.gifPPVK89.thumb.gif.f1ad22bd72ad1474df36a0a925c0274e.gif

740042886_raintues.thumb.png.c5ea2002bee80017c9d5385c54811b26.png2092010948_maxtues.thumb.png.c3027bf19c31cd64246658b162ac6051.png

By midday Wednesday the upper low that will have a major bearing on the weekend weather has tracked into the western Atlantic but in the interim the cold front from the first trough has tracked slowly east and rain will effect the north west by late afternoon

gfs-natl_wide-z500_anom-6388800.thumb.png.968b06e88370fef7374c94444f075a53.pngPPVM89.thumb.gif.49e024b3ace3deda97e793c0fbc486a8.gif

1492611556_rainweds.thumb.png.77bfb2bc28dec9261cc80c3001f4c490.png1390709279_maxwed.thumb.png.9e707557d0e39bc885cec7bb26491403.png

Light patchy rain will be the order of the day on Thursday as the cold front weakens as it crosses the country whilst the new upper low makes steady progress east.

gfs-natl_wide-z500_anom-6475200.thumb.png.bafd716c64999c1f709ad52c5e0378fb.pngPPVO89.thumb.gif.f8528dc9194d7ca4490422262b1671ce.gif

775523343_rainth.thumb.png.d8e24641cf58708f67e94659bbc6b9de.png757545230_maxthurs.thumb.png.b7d0ec213053c3412313289329cdee46.png

Edited by knocker

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)

The first thing to say whilst continuing with the gfs is that next weekend is still a long way from being nailed down.

Friday the subtropical zones are starting to amplify resulting in quite a pleasant day for all apart from the north.

gfs-natl_wide-z500_anom-6572400.thumb.png.92feb571b18320467ddaa9301e17cb71.png

Over the next 48 hours the high zones continue to strongly amplify forcing the upper low south east over the UK (this was always a possibility). Best left here I feel as little confidence in this without at least seeing this morning's ecm

sun.thumb.png.831e4c24d9a976512faf555a7df8c058.pngjet.thumb.png.d01ae4a67003044e8475f287d1f03775.png

Edited by knocker

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)

Predictable the ecm differs from the gfs at the end of the week. It has another trough which slides south down the Denmark Straits at t114 which phases with the Atlantic trough which then tracks east whilst the subtropical high zones amplify either side. This would certainly favour the southern half of the country but too much point in worrying about the detail until the evolution is near finalised

144.thumb.png.76997eb4bc75ccd636bc8cc3a7dbc67b.png168.thumb.png.78dd4e81ba0da8aed28e2a11c90b78e4.png186.thumb.png.e3aa203ddc967a0752295c583940597b.png

Edited by knocker

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
Sign in to follow this  

×
×
  • Create New...