Jump to content
Sign in to follow this  
Paul

Model output discussion - hot spell beckons but then what?

Paul

This thread = Models, models and more models
Please remember that this thread is for discussing the model output only. If you want to chat about the summer weather more generally, please use the Summer chat and moans thread.

Message added by Paul

Recommended Posts

EC is a stonker !!!

Hot hot hot ..

And still hot on Friday ...(more esp the SE).

image.thumb.png.8c53aa71035d6ae64db676a493fb847e.png

Pick of the lot this morning..

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

EC is like the gift that keeps giving !! 😄

168

image.thumb.png.b58779eb8f03419020dd509dad01ac72.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Just when I state that the gfs has binned the split trough idea... what does ecm do? Split the trough! 🤦🏻‍♂️ Doh. Very helpful!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
13 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Looks to me like the models have been pushing the peak heat backwards, from Tuesday to Wednesday and now Thursday, but with the earlier period of next week still very warm/hot.

In fact the ECM still has the 20’C isotherm over the South East by Friday.

....and still warm/very warm for most by next Saturday. Another case of the models initially shifting away the heat too quickly?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

NetWx-mr take on temps Tue-Fri. With Tuesday looking the hottest day nationwide thereafter a more N/S split, 35/36c possible in the S/E.

1786856121_viewimage(50).thumb.png.747fba6a3c64281c84fc4c452c33be17.png1811575295_viewimage(51).thumb.png.aa2a25baaf572168b02d632132753a4e.png1188322388_viewimage(52).thumb.png.876cfec7f27c7134bf051e9698f071d9.png976610672_viewimage(53).thumb.png.26c7a030d9b2a9171cc25fd00909fde1.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

ECM all set to be a big warm outlier this morning - very different to all other output and on its own really. Still a chance it could be right but I wouldn’t think so. Shame, as it’s good throughout!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, mb018538 said:

ECM all set to be a big warm outlier this morning - very different to all other output and on its own really. Still a chance it could be right but I wouldn’t think so. Shame, as it’s good throughout!

Yes, i think i agree with this..

EC is the best performing model but does seem to be throwing out outlier solutions recently- whether they be the warm or cool variety .

Again i find myself hoping this is the correct progression, its a stunner and prolongs summer , nice for the kids off school though 🙂

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, mb018538 said:

ECM all set to be a big warm outlier this morning - very different to all other output and on its own really. Still a chance it could be right but I wouldn’t think so. Shame, as it’s good throughout!

It’s different because it splits the jet. It shows that this option is still very much on the table. You would think that the op run would be better at resolving it at this relatively short range?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)

Tuesday night into Wednesday looks good for potential storms with plenty of convective scope and high Cape values. A very hot moist week ahead... Off up Snowdon again tonight so wish me luck ☺️

405395765_viewimage(54).thumb.png.b2bbf830d240e4fe970c128a4e6b28e2.png1740367095_viewimage(55).thumb.png.d89efcc6b67c7abe2dc98335b19c25ae.png1203744431_viewimage(56).thumb.png.1c507fd4a0cefc184042a20217ff0265.png

Edited by Polar Maritime

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Djdazzle said:

It’s different because it splits the jet. It shows that this option is still very much on the table. You would think that the op run would be better at resolving it at this relatively short range?

Yes we are getting to the 11th hour now with this , its rare you see such a difference between UKMO/EC but this is one of those rare occasions..

Everything i read supports a breakdown thur but EC stands virtually alone in the weather model world..

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Well I still can't call this beyond Tuesday myself, which is rather frustrating! Taking the ECM - although after this frame it manages to stall the heat over eastern England for the rest of the week (maintaining the record breaking potential), you'd have to say this T96 could also lead to the heat being lost to the continent - we've seen this before:

ECM1-96.GIF?20-12

If that low next to Iceland is wrong even 100 miles, there could be a 100 mile shift in where the heat sets up for the following 48 hours, and in this extreme set up that may mean a 5C difference. Of course if it corrects back west (more unlikely but possible I suppose), a lot more of the country will steam. 

I'm less bothered by the secondary low coming from the SW as these often downgrade slightly at around D4/D5, and I think we'll see a slower shift of the heat as a result of this low, perhaps like the ECM has done this morning. To me it's the first low by Iceland that is crucial. I guess it is within a couple of hundred miles of accuracy at the T96/T120 range now, but that's enough distance to change the scenario quite a bit. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)

Just had a look at the GEFS 0z further ahead into early August and there's a chance of another plume so we may be using the word plume again after the plumey week ahead, indeed the Gfs 0z op shows the possibility of another plume before that for the s / se!!!!!👍🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥..anyway, the most exciting week of the summer so far is now guaranteed..exceptional heat / humidity and a growing threat of thunderstorms!!👍..Friday still hot for many on the Ecm 0z op!!🔥

144_thickuk.thumb.png.30a67d07ff859ad31fdfc75d6499a588.png144_mslp850.thumb.png.a073f6a53c65796aab283927f4224a37.png144_thick.thumb.png.01eb0142462143768f760232b5ae86a1.png

Edited by Jon Snow

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

Just had a look at the GEFS 0z further ahead into early August and there's a chance of another plume so we may be using the word plume again after the plumey week ahead!!!!!👍🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥

Weather patterns have a habit of repeating themselves over the course of a few months, so I wouldn’t be surprised.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

This morning it seems that most runs extend the peak heat slightly, but with ECM going to town on the idea. Divergence at    T96 shows that anything is still possible.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)

Well we know that the secondary low does run along the base of the jet, but how it does interacts with the parent low seems to be a real headache as some really blow up the main system and clear the heat very quickly (many GFS ensembles clear the heat by Wednesday morning), but you can see how a few differences can keep the whole system much shallower this in depth and allow the heat to hold on.

Just 4 members of the GFS want a hot Thursday, it will be interesting to see the ECM ens later as most wanted to keep the heat going through Thursday.

 

Edited by Captain Shortwave

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

On ECM raw temperatures charts, still record breaking potential, but a slight eastward shift means only very hot in the SE after Tuesday. Likely maximums would be Mon 31, Tues 34, Wed 35, Thurs 37-38

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I’m backing the op runs to get a handle on this with their higher resolution. Especially at only 4 days out.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
28 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

ECM all set to be a big warm outlier this morning - very different to all other output and on its own really. Still a chance it could be right but I wouldn’t think so. Shame, as it’s good throughout!

sorry i disagree... its possibly a bit progressive with its suggested hanging on to heat, but all current models suggest some sort of pressure build off the azores after the 'breakdown'. imho the whole run is plausible and not far off the general pattern for this timeframe.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
26 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

sorry i disagree... its possibly a bit progressive with its suggested hanging on to heat, but all current models suggest some sort of pressure build off the azores after the 'breakdown'. imho the whole run is plausible and not far off the general pattern for this timeframe.

That would be my reading too. The Azores High very quick noses in from the SW once the dome from the S departs. So next weekend looking warm, better the further S and E you go. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Hmmm not really the output I was hoping for this morning. The ECM and GFS Ops runs are both slight outliers in even prolonging the heat into Thursday. The majority of ensembles members, along with ICON & GEM (which are now particularly aggressive) remove the heat through Wednesday to all but the extreme south east. Feels like overnight the was the usual eastwards correction as things settle down. Experience tells me that quite often that eastwards nudge can be overly done a touch so while outliers I would mind betting the Ops runs from ECM and GFS aren’t too far from the mark. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Downpour said:

That would be my reading too. The Azores High very quick noses in from the SW once the dome from the S departs. So next weekend looking warm, better the further S and E you go. 

Are we looking at the same runs here??!

GFS and GEM don’t build the Azores high in at all, and ukmo looks very similar with the big low pressure. Only really ECM that settles things down again

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Hmmm not really the output I was hoping for this morning. The ECM and GFS Ops runs are both slight outliers in even prolonging the heat into Thursday. The majority of ensembles members, along with ICON & GEM (which are now particularly aggressive) remove the heat through Wednesday to all but the extreme south east. Feels like overnight the was the usual eastwards correction as things settle down. Experience tells me that quite often that eastwards nudge can be overly done a touch so while outliers I would mind betting the Ops runs from ECM and GFS aren’t too far from the mark. 

ICON and GEM - let’s move on from that.

The ECM and GFS op runs are both upgrades next week compared to the 12z from last night.

So I think it’s looking positive.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The 0z op runs / ensembles are certainly more progressive than yesterday but there is a spanish plum coming, my limited experience of spanish plums is they don't hang around and this one doesn't look any different.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

The 0z op runs / ensembles are certainly more progressive than yesterday but there is a spanish plum coming, my limited experience of spanish plums is they don't hang around and this one doesn't look any different.

Plumes don’t tend to hang around. Not sure about plums though! 😂😂😂😂

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)

Looking at the ECM ens, the operational is probably in the majority cluster again.

Not a good position to make a call on next week. The ECM has support so it could be handling the main trough better than the GEFs in particular which might be blowing it up and strengthening the jet stream too much???

Edited by Captain Shortwave

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
Sign in to follow this  

×
×
  • Create New...