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Paul

Model output discussion - hot spell beckons but then what?

Paul

This thread = Models, models and more models
Please remember that this thread is for discussing the model output only. If you want to chat about the summer weather more generally, please use the Summer chat and moans thread.

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If you want to discuss these things, please do so in the correct threads - thanks.

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1 hour ago, Ed Stone said:

I stand corrected, Steve...But this summer has bucked the trend; it's been warmer than usual:

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/gpc-outlooks/ens-mean/nao-description

Climate Change?:unsure2:

The current weather and what is modelled is a perfect facsimile for the well below summer NAO diagram.

metofficegovuk:xsmall

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6 hours ago, Steve Murr said:

The current times are unprecedented- For the winter forecasts

- Forget the global seasonal models 

- Forget the 'teleconnective' forecasts 

The current SSTas / Arctic Amplifications & polar feedback loops will make it impossible to forecast based on these methods thats are being used- 

Makes this winter very exciting as we can guess what the top levels of the strat will probably do - Decending EQBO + weaker strat vortex due to the sun ... BUT

What does the troposphere have instore... More disconnect & more jet stream amplification..

So back to the original point - 'Current persistence' seems more logical to follow that variable forecast change based on analogues as they could well be out of date....

In support of Steves' comments Any actual professional odds compiler will tell you that pattern matching is a sure fire way to lose all of your money. Anybody can take x amount of variables and create a table with y rows of data and then determine the number of x variables that seem to point to z result by filtering for the most obvious. Then many get upset when the same set of variables produce an unexpected outcome.

Even the National Hurricane Centre forecasts are based on pattern matching.. And when you give a +/- 20% probablility you will usually end out ok.. Back to nowcasting : if you understand steering currents then hurricane paths are rudimentary.

Earths weather is not a closed system.. it is constantly bombarded by internal and external variables.. 

If you spend enough time you will appreciate JH discussion of the 500mb anomaly charts 

Edited by Buzzit
elaboration

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I hope the gfs is wrong here

New upper low enters the fray and merges with the in situ lobe as it tracks quickly east on the very strong jet

gfs-natl_wide-z500_anom-5902800.thumb.png.00b1e0db8d73a94e9b07f0c2f468d044.pnggfs-natl_wide-z250_speed-5902800.thumb.png.18349f7bbf889ff368caf1326a9d41ea.png

And by Friday afternoon we are here and then on to Saturday

gfs-natl_wide-z500_anom-5967600.thumb.png.5226cffc9692b6d3f44fd81d1e7eef34.png162.thumb.png.1a56d183e7c24f863afcc8117539198d.png180.thumb.png.9bb47049504dedcfea7a3b1f7384448a.png

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The GEFS mean anomaly not encouraging with the Iceland lobe drifting north of Scotland

gfs-nhemi-z500_anom_5day-6259200.thumb.png.03d55213b5a6269b45734669b139ea25.pnggfs-eur-t2m_c_anom_5day-6259200.thumb.png.c89ce9230b5cf43412b854ff851604c9.png

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4 minutes ago, knocker said:

The GEFS mean anomaly not encouraging with the Iceland lobe drifting north of Scotland

gfs-nhemi-z500_anom_5day-6259200.thumb.png.03d55213b5a6269b45734669b139ea25.pnggfs-eur-t2m_c_anom_5day-6259200.thumb.png.c89ce9230b5cf43412b854ff851604c9.png

knocker just looked the gfs  is so  bad   its  xx stuff    the  uk     might  end in a lot of trouble

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=2&ech=6

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The better news is the ecm has a weaker jet and the trough doesn't engage like the gfs thus a much more leisurely, if that's the right word. affair on Saturday. Obviously the detail for the last half of next week still to be resolved

ecmwf-natl_wide-z500_anom-5978400.thumb.png.baaf7d82da462eda665910aac1d66902.pngecmwf-natl_wide-z200_speed-5978400.thumb.png.a0cd9dfffa570c3b8529c3d6d6967046.pngindex.thumb.png.8829fd4d869406167489db30f0ef821a.png

 

Edited by knocker

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Models continuing to look more like October than August. Very, very poor outlook with loads more wind and rain to come for at least another 10 days. Oh well, only leaves just over a week of August left and we can start thinking about autumn.

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Possible a concentration of heavy showers and the odd storm N, Ireland, southern Scotland and northern England this afternoon

vortpanel_d02_13.thumb.png.ce6987c958d68addd5cc7700f8ae400f.pngvortpanel_d02_17.thumb.png.9a1d5bb6f6baa59d4576242bc3ff5c12.png

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Not a lot of reason for optimism to be had from this morning's GEFS 00Z ensembles...

prmslLondon.png   t850London.png

t2mLondon.png   prcpLondon.png

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1 hour ago, mb018538 said:

Models continuing to look more like October than August. Very, very poor outlook with loads more wind and rain to come for at least another 10 days. Oh well, only leaves just over a week of August left and we can start thinking about autumn.

exactly as predicted by the noaa 500 mb charts a week or so ago. remember people doubting the 'autumnal' outlook? they really are most of the time, accurate.

 

610day_03 (4).gif

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9 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

exactly as predicted by the noaa 500 mb charts a week or so ago. remember people doubting the 'autumnal' outlook? they really are most of the time, accurate.

 

610day_03 (4).gif

And the EPS has been very consistent as well

9-14.thumb.png.87be83d155858d65cd847fcff2c54c3a.png

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Yep - it has been on the cards for quite a while. As I said about a week ago, it’s easier to forecast spells like this with more certainty than extreme heat or cold. It’s turned out exactly as forecast.

On another note, one of the two poles of cold - Verkhoyansk - is forecast is be mid twenties and sunny all week. It’s at 67N. Gotta laugh really.

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It certainly looks as if warm and muggy air will be back, for the second half of next week and the weekend...🤔

h850t850eu.png  h500slp.png

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5 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

It certainly looks as if warm and muggy air will be back, for the second half of next week and the weekend...🤔

h850t850eu.png  h500slp.png

Just into the low 20s in the SE feeling quite chilly for some in the north with max temps locally struggling to get into the teens

ukmaxtemp.thumb.png.2a2401e71796707575993b357b5677c6.png319120437_ukprec(1).thumb.png.501a9215629a8fcaca37858c8d5b1bd1.png

483034600_ukmaxtemp(1).thumb.png.55f5240a095ad373d3fd6654ad9050a1.pngukprec.thumb.png.be1e9b020969a1c6b930d7b2b56ad987.png

Summer remains firmly on hold after the record breaking heatwave

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Well, I've certainly been lucky with my Tuesdays! There's even a tentative sign of HP becoming a tad more influential?:oldgood:

h500slp.png   h850t850eu.png

PS: @Summer Sun, I think I'll stick with my habit of adding 2-3C to those GFS temperature forecasts?:oldgrin:

Edited by Ed Stone

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Utter garbage... Just has you think high summer can't get any worse... The 6z throws the chart below up for next weekend... The kids may as well go back to school right now... It may improve the conditions... 🤔

gfs-0-168.png

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14 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

PS: @Summer Sun, I think I'll stick with my habit of adding 2-3C to those GFS temperature forecasts?:oldgrin:

Exactly.  In reality, wouldn’t be surprised to see temperatures of around 23-24c in the South East if that chart comes off.

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15 hours ago, Don said:

Yes it is strange (or perhaps not now?) that after  an extended period of a negative NAO, summer has been warmer than average.  Have the goal posts been moved as a result of Global Warming?

Or we’ve just been lucky with the placement of troughs and highs, which would of course be unlucky in winter as we’d end up with a negative NAO and still end up mild.

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Once the next deep low passes through, things look like improving...:oldgrin:

prmslLondon.png   t850London.png

t2mLondon.png   prcpLondon.png

But there's still no definitive suggestion of another heatwave.

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Not the best set of synoptics on offer for mid August - no sign of any sustained settled weather on the horizon, indeed very unsettled for the foreseeable sums it up, and much cooler than recently as well, especially northern half of the UK, with temps below bar, and dare I say it more akin to early autumn. The wind will also be an unusually strong and persistant feature for the time of year, again conditions more akin to what may expect come late September. 

Lots of heavy rain in places as well - already looking like going down as a notably wet August for many, some parts of Cumbria have seen 2 inches in the last 24 hours.. its been bucketing it down here.

Longer term - what is the betting settled conditions return just in time for September (Met office forecast hinting at this), a kick in the teeth that seems to be happening on regular occurance year after year for anyone who has had a holiday in the UK based on needing good outdoor weather. I would not be surprised at all, to see a turn of events occur just after the bank holiday weekend. Until then a preety woeful outlook - no other words to describe things, another year that reinforces my opinion that August at least around here is not a reliable month to bank on decent lengthy spells of good weather - ranking far behind May-July and even April to an extent in this respect.

Edited by damianslaw

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Have to agree with Damiens post above... Most definitely looking like a good chunk of August going down as a write off now. If we put this into a little more context, that would  implie that with the first 3 weeks of June, then the summer as a whole would have been 50% unsettled and 50% not to bad for a good chunk of the UK! just looking at the extended ecm ensembles out to day 14,there is a trend for an overall increase in temperature and sea level pressure. Towards the backend of August the pressure is getting close to 1020mb...so there are most definitely some signs of an improvement come the last week of the month.... Will it come just in time for the Bank Holiday..... Or will it wait till the end..... Is the million dollar question. 

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3 hours ago, Ed Stone said:

Well, I've certainly been lucky with my Tuesdays! There's even a tentative sign of HP becoming a tad more influential?:oldgood:

h500slp.png   h850t850eu.png

PS: @Summer Sun, I think I'll stick with my habit of adding 2-3C to those GFS temperature forecasts?:oldgrin:

Still doesn't make it muggy or warm, I agree with Summer Sun here, looks below average for most and only slightly above in one or two areas, also wet.

Edited by feb1991blizzard

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The midday analysis and 1400 sat image,Although still very windy, now that the showers have died out it feels quite warm down gere

PPVA89.thumb.gif.d3eedf18273613717cdda93c62277651.gifmods.thumb.JPG.bd529585a126457e5eb17ca24d5e244c.JPG

 

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