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Paul

Model output discussion - hot spell beckons but then what?

Paul

This thread = Models, models and more models
Please remember that this thread is for discussing the model output only. If you want to chat about the summer weather more generally, please use the Summer chat and moans thread.

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18 hours ago, Mattwolves said:

Yes the albedo effect! Normally we would transfer 80% of the heat back into space with widespread ice cover... Take it away and 90% will be trapping on earth.. I've only just realized the record uk temp was set at 38.5c and the July record set at 36.7c at Heathrow 2015.. Dohhh.... Well I feel certain the July record is going on Thursday... If clear skies are the order of the day on Thursday, and certain areas escape the shower risk tonight.... Then surely 38-40c has now got to be a 50-60% chance.. The next 24hrs could be crucial, either way folks isn't it just great to be a part of this amazing scenario... And we have counted it down for the best part of 6 days. How often can we say that!!! Amazing. 

I said yesterday a 50/60 chance of record going... I've not seen any backtrack this morning, far from it! So a swathe of SE/E and midlands areas should challenge this, where conditions stay clear... 65-70% this record will go... Purely historical in the making folks. 

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2 hours ago, knocker said:

Min temps on the 0600 Synops

http://www.met.reading.ac.uk/~brugge/06.html

Looks like Langdon bay in Kent held up the most at 21.5C, looks like the August 1990 record will be safe.

I'm noticing there could be some huge rainfall totals on Saturday where the clash of cooler air from the West and warm air over the east occurs. Seems like that same line of rain is over Germany too which should make for an interesting race at Hockenheim...

A lot of uncertainty over just where abouts that line of persistent rain is. Depends on how quickly the heat from Thursday moves east. GFS edges it into the North Sea on Friday whilst ICON has been showing it holding on over eastern England consistently over recent runs. Not an easy forecast.

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Posted (edited)
30 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

Looks like Langdon bay in Kent held up the most at 21.5C, looks like the August 1990 record will be safe.

I'm noticing there could be some huge rainfall totals on Saturday where the clash of cooler air from the West and warm air over the east occurs. Seems like that same line of rain is over Germany too which should make for an interesting race at Hockenheim...

A lot of uncertainty over just where abouts that line of persistent rain is. Depends on how quickly the heat from Thursday moves east. GFS edges it into the North Sea on Friday whilst ICON has been showing it holding on over eastern England consistently over recent runs. Not an easy forecast.

image.thumb.png.d51b7a4bc5c001d999f90af5471445b0.pngLatest GFS 2m Temps onimage.thumb.png.f24fff2ff7549f075722d27a2578eab3.png 06Z - HIGH reimage.thumb.png.d39a3abade52dec9cae009f31038b5ca.pngs shows peak of 36C in London at 15.00 nothing like the 40 degress forecast earlier. I dont think we will break the record tomorrow 

Edited by NApplewhite
Rain fall chart added

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1 minute ago, NApplewhite said:

image.thumb.png.d51b7a4bc5c001d999f90af5471445b0.pngLatest GFS 2m Temps on 06Z - HIGH res shows peak of 36C in London at 15.00 nothing like the 40 degress forecast earlier. I dont think we will break the record tomorrow 

The FV3 is known to underestimate temperatures by 1-2C and its at odds with the Metoffice forecasts plus all the others in terms of how widespread 35C+ is...

Besides GFS has never forecast 40C anyway? Why not just wait till the event happens as its only 24 hours away now...

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Just now, Quicksilver1989 said:

The FV3 is known to underestimate temperatures by 1-2C and its at odds with the Metoffice forecasts plus all the others in terms of how widespread 35C+ is...

Besides GFS has never forecast 40C anyway? Why not just wait till the event happens as its only 24 hours away now...

Don’t take the bait.

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5 minutes ago, NApplewhite said:

image.thumb.png.d51b7a4bc5c001d999f90af5471445b0.pngLatest GFS 2m Temps onimage.thumb.png.f24fff2ff7549f075722d27a2578eab3.png 06Z - HIGH res shows peak of 36C in London at 15.00 nothing like the 40 degress forecast earlier. I dont think we will break the record tomorrow 

The GFS showed barely 30c maximum today on yesterday’s run. We’ve already breached it! 

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3 minutes ago, NApplewhite said:

image.thumb.png.d51b7a4bc5c001d999f90af5471445b0.pngLatest GFS 2m Temps onimage.thumb.png.f24fff2ff7549f075722d27a2578eab3.png 06Z - HIGH res shows peak of 36C in London at 15.00 nothing like the 40 degress forecast earlier. I dont think we will break the record tomorrow 

GFS has never been showing those very high figures - it often tends to underestimate maxima. It's the high-res models that have been showing 38 or even 39, and they still are. The European high-res HARMONIE model has 40C in Kent, for example.

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Does the Azores HP look like a rabbit, or a duck?

h500slp.png

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Posted (edited)

.

Edited by CanadianCoops

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1 minute ago, Rob K said:

GFS has never been showing those very high figures - it often tends to underestimate maxima. It's the high-res models that have been showing 38 or even 39, and they still are. The European high-res HARMONIE model has 40C in Kent, for example.

image.thumb.png.6238386204b5f96bee9ec94b8b900f29.png ECMWF Highres predicting highs of 34-35 

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1 minute ago, Ed Stone said:

Does the Azores HP look like a rabbit, or a duck?

h500slp.png

Im more concerned about the low pressure over the UK on that date 

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Posted (edited)

ARPEGE 6z still going for 38c 100f tomorrow afternoon / early evening and i believe 39-40c 103f is possible!!!!!👍👍👍🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥

arpege-41-33-0.thumb.png.b52cc6ec57ed480c33bdf39877bc1e1e.png

Edited by Jon Snow

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Posted (edited)
7 minutes ago, NApplewhite said:

Im more concerned about the low pressure over the UK on that date 

Your concerned about a low pressure over the UK in 15 days time!!! Really? that scenario at this range would be about 5-10% likely. 

Looking at the extended ecm mean shows a mean temperature of around 8.5c...the pressure charts around 1013mb..there is a widespread scatter on the ensembles showing again that no clear signal or anyone weather type will be dominant.. So in that respect, still alot up for grabs. 

Edited by Mattwolves

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Posted (edited)

If I have learnt one thing, it is to not take the GFS temps literally. They are quite often very conservative. It was 5c too low  in most parts yesterday. 

Metoffice is forecasting 39c (and I will give them their dues, they are very rarely far out at this timeframe). BBC is also going with 39c

Virtually all the hi red models are going with 39c also. The Arpege being very reliable with maximum temps. 

Said it before. July record is 100% gone. 38.5c is about 70-80%, and 40c is about 50%

Edited by matty007
Amend

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6 minutes ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

The GFS showed barely 30c maximum today on yesterday’s run. We’ve already breached it! 

There are widespread 40s forecast across the channel tomorrow, so since its not even showing that then I would disregard it (unless other models are in agreement!)

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Just now, matty007 said:

If I have learnt one thing, it is to not take the GFS temps literally. They are quite often very conservative. It was 5c out in most parts yesterday. 

Metoffice is forecasting 39c (and I will give them their dues, they are very rarely far out at this timeframe). BBC is also going with 39c

Virtually all the hi red models are going with 39c also. The Arpege being very reliable with maximum temps. 

Said it before. July record is 100% gone. 38.5c is about 70-80%, and 40c is about 50%

I am sure it was going to be the hottest night ever last night but it wasn't so you do not know what it will do

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4 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

ARPEGE 6z still going for 38c 100f tomorrow afternoon / early evening and i believe 39-40c 102f is possible!!!!!👍👍👍🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥

arpege-41-33-0.thumb.png.b52cc6ec57ed480c33bdf39877bc1e1e.png

The zoomable ARPEGE shows just how wide an area of 38C is shown. Parts of Kent, and then a big swathe from Sussex up through London to Cambridgsehire: http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/arpegezoom.php?mode=131&x=4723.53&y=2129.52&ech=36&zoom=3

 

BTW it is showing a max of 30C for Kent today which has already been exceeded at noon!

 

I guessed 38.1C in the competition but I would probably add a degree to that now. I think we will just miss 40C though.

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2 minutes ago, NTC said:

I am sure it was going to be the hottest night ever last night but it wasn't so you do not know what it will do

Were any local records broken last night? if not nationally? 

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1 minute ago, NTC said:

I am sure it was going to be the hottest night ever last night but it wasn't so you do not know what it will do

That was always far from certain to begin with. If all the hi res models are 24 hours out and showing 39c, along with the Metoffice, I really wouldn't refute it.  

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3 minutes ago, NTC said:

I am sure it was going to be the hottest night ever last night but it wasn't so you do not know what it will do

I was always sceptical of that one as none of the high-res models suggested the temperatures staying above 22C in any given place. And so it proved.

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1 minute ago, matty007 said:

That was always far from certain to begin with. If all the hi res models are 24 hours out and showing 39c, along with the Metoffice, I really wouldn't refute it.  

Meanwhile look how cold its going to be on Sunday in Rochdale (Ol12) 

image.thumb.png.b132561b186754e096d0e6390609360d.png

image.thumb.png.3ba7cf2648fbf11deed7aed3a5554a4d.png

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54 minutes ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

I honestly never thought I would see the day. This is big news. All the holes do miraculously seem to be lining up for it, with the timings of the warmest uppers in place for peak heating, and the appropriate wind direction for local topographical effects in certain places. Such as the fens, N Kent and NW London. 

Im pretty sure there’s a thread somewhere in this forum discussing whether 40c would ever be achieved! 

I think a 34c is even possible for today, despite the GFS showing 30c. Cambridge is hitting that currently as we speak, and it’s not even midday! 34c is even remarkable in its own right in this country. Just shows the ridiculousness of this heatwave! It doesn’t seem down to this earth! 

Yes, I'm in Cambridge now and can confirm it feels every bit as warm as yesterday. I remember the day prior to August 10th 2003 feeling very similar to this. Haven't got a thermometer to hand, but it's certainly over 30c with three hours of warming to go. 

Wouldn't be surprised if temps higher than yesterday are recorded today. The models were way out. 

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3 minutes ago, NApplewhite said:

Meanwhile look how cold its going to be on Sunday in Rochdale (Ol12) 

image.thumb.png.b132561b186754e096d0e6390609360d.png

image.thumb.png.3ba7cf2648fbf11deed7aed3a5554a4d.png

Only in England 😁

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