Jump to content
Sign in to follow this  
Paul

Model output discussion - hot spell beckons but then what?

Paul

This thread = Models, models and more models
Please remember that this thread is for discussing the model output only. If you want to chat about the summer weather more generally, please use the Summer chat and moans thread.

Message added by Paul

Recommended Posts

 

12 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

VERY interesting 6z ensembles - a much larger group of members prolong the heat into Friday....it's in fact a majority now! 12/20 keep 850s above 15c, with 8 below. Could just be a one off, but it looks like a very big 12z run coming up this evening.

The GFS 12Z ensembles from yesterday were almost identical to the 06Z batch this morning it was just the Ops run was a bit of an outlier in being overly progressive. There has to be increasing confidence that the UK could be about to enter a notable heatwave in which there could be multiple days with Tmax above 32C. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)

And the GEFS first spotted this 2 weeks ago, astonishing!!!..it's been great watching it creep backwards from T+384 and now very much into high res!!..👍

Edited by Jon Snow

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

What a stonker of a run that GEFS 06Z is!:shok:🔥:oldgood:💦:yahoo:The op (850s-wise) is literally off-the-scale for the best part of five straight days!

t850London.png   t2mLondon.png

prmslLondon.png   prcpLondon.png

Shirley, the all-time July record must be under threat, now?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Fascinating developments.

The 00z FV3 picked up the faster additional low into the N. Atlantic that the 12z ECM ran with, but the trough already in place was too progressive, and the new low on the scene not timed correctly, for the 'heat pump' to be set in motion.

The 06z FV3, on the other hand, is both less progressive with the  trough and faster with the new low arriving, resulting in an elongation of that trough that does a good job replicating what yesterday's ECM 12z produced via splitting of the trough. It's like a substitution!


All the wild variations are exasperating when you're trying to provide public guidance as to whether we'll see a 'hot snap' of 1-2 days that's relatively little to worry about, or a heatwave - possibly severe - that could cause (possibly major) health and work productivity problems.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

06z GFS looks pretty fierce with the heat, even for my tastes.   Not sure if model glitch, or we get 4 or 5 days of 30+s  certainly an incredible upgrade from the 00z

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)
25 minutes ago, Huntforsnow said:

Wait so your all hunting for hot summer weather and when it finally looks like it may get hot ..your moaning about the consequences?🤦

Anyway I hope the 6z is true 😂 

 

Hahaha indeed - happens every year! Summer and Winter!

What is going on with the GFS 6z!? Thought I was seeing things there! That is an insane run - surely it has to be wrong? 

If anyone in the South East is moaning about this heat I will do you a swap - I will come down and stay next week to sample the high 30’s (If it was to actually happen) and pay for you to sit indoors with lovely ice cold air conditioning plus you can come up here in Winter and sample proper snow! 😂

Now this is a UK and Ireland hot weather lovers dream right here - please let it be! 

97FC2793-2A70-4B39-B507-C995BC8A6E95.thumb.png.113307bde07277777a42e9742489f05a.png

Edited by Mr Frost

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I wonder of the 06z GFS has a warm bias, yesterdays 06z was similar. 

gfs-uk-t2m_c-4066800.thumb.png.aac08d4056ff54ae40565e232c2b6704.png

OP was an outlier against it's ensembles though, especially in regards to pro-longing the heat. 

2030105459_Screenshot2019-07-19at13_12_58.thumb.png.551d41585736859ef6af9586c5cfbcc1.png

Seems to have gone from being overly progressive to pretending the Atlantic low doesn't exist! I think Wednesday still a good bet for peak widespread heat, perhaps with the highest temp being recorded on Thursday in the SE with the breakdown occurring Wednesday night through into Thursday.

Lots of uncertainty.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Here are the London daily maximum temperatures according to that GFS 6z run.

DE6A8AE0-5376-4794-BA91-54AD4527A9E7.jpeg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)

Awesome GEFS 6z mean next week..and I really MEAN that, the perturbations are nae bad either!!!!!🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥😉

21_108_850tmp.thumb.png.7340f3cf18ba5b3c5977b952645661f0.png21_132_850tmp.thumb.png.115d2e5240fd7d25959376075de43561.png21_156_850tmp.thumb.png.ec0d97ad54461fd55060f27177e5e9a0.png21_180_850tmp.thumb.png.38c9ad7f10cc8cf0370495f6a9defcca.png21_204_850tmp.thumb.png.2710f1b20d69ba355a3cb76290f10ed8.png21_228_850tmp.thumb.png.4f8b6e490932a6b95eabdae4b5305caa.png21_252_850tmp.thumb.png.b2c0774b4d96a8cb730771b847e4e891.png0_108_2mtmpmax.thumb.png.6121f952cab71d4c0d62e0b1e159fac1.png0_156_2mtmpmax.thumb.png.04fd068b1432f8ac21189b0ee48491b7.png1_156_2mtmpmax.thumb.png.414b2340bd6047d6a0235679a7ba30d3.png2_156_2mtmpmax.thumb.png.4b77243d8933b8c68914134ba8f7eda6.png4_156_2mtmpmax.thumb.png.b752ab5fd8772b354a99a7163caba1fc.png7_156_2mtmpmax.thumb.png.a3d8b0048fd4a0b1cd7e306e5d3ee94d.png10_156_2mtmpmax.thumb.png.270c4684c9029d5fe13659d301b393b5.png13_156_2mtmpmax.thumb.png.bbb289d13801ae0e3c7a8886fbc67d66.png14_156_2mtmpmax.thumb.png.eda5a51fb0b5ab39082ebd06f990db72.png16_156_2mtmpmax.thumb.png.4d4fd3511ecc1a8ffa100205bec26526.png19_156_2mtmpmax.thumb.png.abfc487691bd7eef916948b3a9dfbccc.png

Edited by Jon Snow

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
23 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Here are the London daily maximum temperatures according to that GFS 6z run.

DE6A8AE0-5376-4794-BA91-54AD4527A9E7.jpeg

Can you provide a link for that site please?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, h2005__uk__ said:

Can you provide a link for that site please?

It’s just on TheWeatherOutlook site where one can type in a location to get an automated forecast. I believe it uses raw GFS data.

Hope I won’t be sent to the naughty step for plugging another weather site 😇 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, MattStoke said:

It’s just on TheWeatherOutlook site where one can type in a location to get an automated forecast. I believe it uses raw GFS data.

Hope I won’t be sent to the naughty step for plugging another weather site 😇 

xcweather is also good for that , as it is based on raw gfs ..

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)

Given that the all-time July max was set by a one-day-wonder (or, for the sake 'balance', a jet engine:wallbash:) can, as several model-runs have suggested, two to four four days' under the auspices of 20C+ uppers better it?

Edited by Ed Stone

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Can we keep it to model discussion in this thread please.

For more general chat, please use the summer thread:

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Given that the all-time July max was set by a one-day-wonder (or, for the sake 'balance', a jet engine:wallbash:) can two to four four days' under the auspices of 20C+ uppers better it?

I may be wrong, the models may be wrong but it looks like we could string quite a few days together of building heat and humidity next week..could be very special indeed!👍

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)

Sorry not been contributing but this still has some way to go yet, judging by the op swings and wide clustering 

All we know for certain is that it will get hot and humid next week 

Edited by bluearmy

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Some tricky conditions around later today and this evening, some wet conditions in the SE... and some heavy rain stemming from Ireland into SW Scotland... Things much better tomorrow especially in W/SW and the midlands... Still plenty of showers to the N/NE. 

xx_model-en-330-0_moddeuhd2_2019071909_5_18_155.png

xx_model-en-330-0_moddeuhd2_2019071909_10_18_155.png

xx_model-en-330-0_moddeuhd2_2019071909_13_18_155.png

xx_model-en-330-0_moddeuhd2_2019071909_25_18_155.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Ed Stone said:

I realise it's very unlike to verify, but the prospect of 10C+ uppers coming around an Icelandic LP, from the northwest??? :shok:

h850t850eu.png   h500slp.png

To us laypeople my Spurs friend,what does that mean temperature wise?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

There be some fun and games later next week if the ECM is on the money! Especially with the building heat.... Long way off though, so subject to much uncertainty. 

xx_model-en-330-0_modez_2019071900_156_18_155.png

xx_model-en-330-0_modez_2019071900_162_18_155.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Big daddy 49 said:

To us laypeople my Spurs friend,what does that mean temperature wise?

That's a very good question, old chap... I guess it'd mean cloudy and damp near western coasts, but feeling warm and humid---sheltered places away from the coast might see sunny spells and temps somewhere around the mid-twenties. Not the sort of thing I'd expect, from a cyclonic northwesterly...?

Anywho, it's so far off, it's largely academic...just a curiosity?

COYS!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Quite a complex picture as we go through this evening and overnight. The frontal system that is bringing rain to many areas today will continue to track north east into the North Sea  and thus the rain will ease, albeit ti will remain very cloudy and muggy.

But a little wave forms on the trailing occlusion resulting a fresh batch of intense thundery showers over N. Ireland and particularly central and north east Scotland this evening and then later another wave on the cold front will bring some heavy rain into the south east of England for a time before clearing in the morning.

PPVA89.thumb.gif.c8237431d07fcdf7ea70158c2a74a13d.gifPPVE89.thumb.gif.813fa0ab5a49fdbce1b4ea76e9224e1e.gifmeanreflec_d02_11.thumb.png.86f8b1b6f793f05b85297c589f28a9b8.pngmeanreflec_d02_13.thumb.png.020931d77d129a36ff1eaf5e43a27dda.pngmeanreflec_d02_15.thumb.png.e038936e38d9c703a363ff34e59f9525.pngmeanreflec_d02_17.thumb.png.df7a69bbc1d6b94baa6d631817ef6d33.pngmeanreflec_d02_19.thumb.png.a8d1258d81342f57d875b59b17c97066.pngmeanreflec_d02_21.thumb.png.7cb7137f298eaddb69caf4ac82bacaba.pngmeanreflec_d02_24.thumb.png.85cc4af2a3b31e8602ee7c3db200ce62.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)

What's really interesting me is whether next week will  be a northwest / southeast split which is again how the experts describe it but I must say that some or indeed most of the model output I've seen so far today shows a nationwide hot spell, certainly from next midweek with all of scotland included in the fantastic uppers too..going to be interesting as to how far north / northwest the heat gets next week!!👍

Edited by Jon Snow

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
13 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

What's really interesting me is whether next week will  be a northwest / southeast split which is again how the experts describe it but I must say that some or indeed most of the model output I've seen so far today shows a nationwide hot spell, certainly from next midweek with all of scotland included in the fantastic uppers too..going to be interesting as to how far north / northwest the heat gets next week!!👍

I suspect they are talking about the progress of the cold front which slows towards the east coast resulting in an extra day or so for the south and east. Excluding the GFS of course.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)

The ICON 12z is a bit further east than the 0z which means it is a NW / SE split on this run but away from NW uk  it's still looking like a hot and humid one for most of next week but with increasing Thunderstorm risk but the plume is gradually shunted away to the east with cooler and fresher atlantic air spreading in from the west later and fairly unsettled /  windy too, especially further NW.

icon-1-75.thumb.png.b2fec59c9d15ddc3fd53f35b65c593ca.pngicon-1-99.thumb.png.8ca7a7b4fd4c595f0389f05309649429.pngicon-0-99.thumb.png.3590f30eb8879afe0739be2abbc71d2c.pngicon-1-123.thumb.png.ee4e4ea8a46c1fcfa0ec9200221f32a0.pngicon-0-123.thumb.png.00ca74aeac944462c2bce4eec83f7d1e.pngicon-1-147.thumb.png.d495dc614fb8e4f94182def40d24ebe1.pngicon-0-168.thumb.png.f6881fd219f11014dd5895235cb362f1.pngicon-1-171.thumb.png.1daca2e8776eb6adf80212d0afbae270.png

Edited by Jon Snow

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
Sign in to follow this  

×
×
  • Create New...