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Paul

Model output discussion - hot spell beckons but then what?

Paul

This thread = Models, models and more models
Please remember that this thread is for discussing the model output only. If you want to chat about the summer weather more generally, please use the Summer chat and moans thread.

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Posted (edited)
26 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

Not sure how that works? Windchill is technically only used for temperatures below 10°C with a wind speed of at least 3mph.

Really, windchill is really any temperature what makes you evaporate your sweat etc of your skin, and makes you feel cooler or cold,..try having a hot shower then open the door to the landing believe me it feels cold. That rush off the cold landing is quite refreshing! 

Edited by ANYWEATHER

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Icon ever so slightly further west again at 84 hours!!good start to the 18zs!!

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ICON substantiates the second wave of heat here on the 18z at T87, with the SE flow telling:

image.thumb.jpg.70abdba171d31c0b5dfe56eb55fe13fd.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.4210554849da1769868bf03fa387ffb4.jpg

 

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Posted (edited)

36c 97f in the SE on thursday according to the ICON 18z...phew 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥

icon-9-93.png

Edited by Jon Snow

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1 minute ago, Jon Snow said:

36c 97f in the SE on thursday according to the ICON 18z...phew 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥

Any charts with that mr knights watch😁

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2 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Looking to through the ECM individual ensemble members for Thursday, it's the tale of the hot, very hot and hotter still - at least 80% of members are likely to produce 36C or more, with the middle ground perhaps a 37C or 38C.

There are plenty of members that see the mid 30Cs zone back as far as Birmingham and Sheffield, so that person from Leeds stating s/he wasn't interested because their area wouldn't reach 30C needs to think again!! 

A potentially recording breaking day, might even see the all time maximum go. 

Can't wait.

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With the Beeb forecasting 43c in Paris on Thursday, it's not out of the realms of possibility for us to see approaching 40c. 

The last plume looked very potent but was dissolved by the north sea and the wind direction. Not this time!. All the key components are in line for it to be a record breaking day. A high upper air, a southerly flow and it's the perfect time in the year. The models are also not slowly degrading as before. They are intensifying if anything. 

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Posted (edited)

EDIT: Ok thats definitely 38c

ICON indeed going for around 36c in the far South East, maybe even a tiny little area of 38c there? Hard to tell this far zoomed out.

iconeu-41-93-1.png

 

xx_model-en-330-0_moddeuhd_2019072118_93_5137_1 (1).png

Edited by Loifeless

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6 minutes ago, Loifeless said:

ICON indeed going for around 36c in the far South East, maybe even a tiny little area of 38c there? Hard to tell this far zoomed out.

iconeu-41-93-1.png

Well it is on a par with ARPEGE 12z at T102:

image.thumb.jpg.28039f6fb122ef59056629af7f04d0ea.jpg

Gives you an idea of the ballpark were walking onto as we await the pub run....

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GFS is slightly further west so far....

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I will also add that despite the very brief downpours in my neck of the woods, the ground is very very dry indeed. That will heavily aid in increasing the temperatures. 

And you couldn't wish for a better time of year for this plume to be happening. Thermal lag and hemisphere temp at it's optimum. 

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First wave of heat as expected T66:

image.thumb.jpg.9e7ad7c2cad338b6c5775ff49fc29b42.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.b9f2d347712e5efb0864ff19dfdecdbf.jpg

It is what happens next that is more interesting to me...second wave upcoming?

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Posted (edited)

This one shoots the +20 uppers right up the east coast!

image.thumb.jpg.778b5fd827125e12c93fc11578ac0c48.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.ab0e18c08e0f82363ae8062dec0c4ebd.jpg

T96!

And so my probability for the record UK temperature, goes up a bit, not a lot, from 22% to 24%...

And for balance that means a 76% chance it won't be broken...just saying!

Edited by Mike Poole

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Not too dissimilar from the last one, seems slightly less heat to the west, but more up the east coast in this scenario. Temps should be similar to the ones shown on the ECM, UKV, ICON, ARPEGE.

850temp_20190721_18_096.jpg

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1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

This one shoots the +20 uppers right up the east coast!

image.thumb.jpg.778b5fd827125e12c93fc11578ac0c48.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.ab0e18c08e0f82363ae8062dec0c4ebd.jpg

T96!

GFS goes for 37C in the far SE corner of England on Thursday...

image.thumb.png.759318cd2170f316ba3af56b2149386f.png

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Gfs 18z ever so slightly further east compared to 12z and more in line with ecm especially for friday!!!

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Posted (edited)
39 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Looking to through the ECM individual ensemble members for Thursday, it's the tale of the hot, very hot and hotter still - at least 80% of members are likely to produce 36C or more, with the middle ground perhaps a 37C or 38C.

There are plenty of members that see the mid 30Cs zone back as far as Birmingham and Sheffield, so that person from Leeds stating s/he wasn't interested because their area wouldn't reach 30C needs to think again!! 

31C on Tuesday has been forecast consistently for a few days here, and now 30C on Thursday, but that’s not record breaking or even close which is probably what @summer blizzard meant a few pages back. Guess we’ll see though.

Edited by cheese

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It seems that in order to probably get our 40c+ we'd still have to see more westward movement to guarantee 23c+ uppers to sit over London. As Heathrow/Northolt are the most likely to be able to hit those temperatures. I suppose Gravesend isnt out of the picture either. Regardless its definitely apparent that we're gonna be seeing high 30's somewhere in the South East, unless we get some "badly" placed thunderstorms of course.

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2 minutes ago, Loifeless said:

It seems that in order to probably get our 40c+ we'd still have to see more westward movement to guarantee 23c+ uppers to sit over London. As Heathrow/Northolt are the most likely to be able to hit those temperatures. I suppose Gravesend isnt out of the picture either. Regardless its definitely apparent that we're gonna be seeing high 30's somewhere in the South East, unless we get some "badly" placed thunderstorms of course.

I think Gravesend might be out of the picture, I'm sure I read somewhere it had been dismantled!  Shame if so, because it consistently outperformed the models in terms of heat!  Can anyone confirm?

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A close up of the GFS confirms that 37'C value.

kent.png

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Posted (edited)
2 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

I think Gravesend might be out of the picture, I'm sure I read somewhere it had been dismantled!  Shame if so, because it consistently outperformed the models in terms of heat!  Can anyone confirm?

Oh wow you're right! Well I suppose Heathrow and Northolt then.. https://www.kentonline.co.uk/gravesend/news/famous-weather-station-closed-191601/

Edited by Loifeless

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Unbelievably heavy rain for Skye and Lochalsh on this run - torrential rain for 24 hours solid! 

ukprec.png

ukprec.png

ukprec.png

ukprec.png

 

ukprec.png

ukprec.png

ukprec.png

ukprec.png

ukprec.png

 

 

 

 

 

 

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8 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

I think Gravesend might be out of the picture, I'm sure I read somewhere it had been dismantled!  Shame if so, because it consistently outperformed the models in terms of heat!  Can anyone confirm?

Well I will be able to give you my reading from the Downs above Sevenoaks Kent, we normally read very similar to Gravesend.   

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