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Paul

Model output discussion - hot spell beckons but then what?

Paul

This thread = Models, models and more models
Please remember that this thread is for discussing the model output only. If you want to chat about the summer weather more generally, please use the Summer chat and moans thread.

Message added by Paul

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26 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Probably 40c - but so have loads on here, but do you question their claptrap as well?

People were saying 40c would be possible if yesterday's 12z ECM came off... but the consensus was that it was very unlikely to come off.... so not exactly claptrap...

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15 minutes ago, Downpour said:

GFS 6z is awful – if you dislike hot weather. 

Pushes the trough back into Biscay late next week and pumps up insane levels of heat.

Hot outlier, barely plausible. 

The temperatures may be implausible but the pattern shown is a repeating one for the Iberian summer. The cut off upper low seems to fix itself there and then meanders about, getting topped up every so often. 

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Always thought the 06z & 18z GFS output were the more accurate/reliable, so another 12 hour wait on this rather severe and possibly dangerous output for some people if may affect with health issues. 

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6z  brings over a week of very warm/hot temperatures   i expect it may will be an outlier on the ensembles     however one thing i know is that during the 12z run  no one will be screaming upgrade.  Remarkable 

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Historically and statistically, an early Atlantic breakthrough is of course the most 'likely' outcome; but, there have been many occasions (1963, 1975, 1976, 1989, 1990, 1995...) when statistics have stood for very little...Statistics, IMO, are always in the past tense: the P-value for today being unsettled is 1, for it being 35C with wall-to-wall sunshine, it is 0!?🤓

What I mean to say is that we are in a one-off unique situation, and the weather will take no notice of any man-made assessments of probability...🤓

Anywho, enough of my waffle, here's what the GFS 06Z is showing for July 31st::oldgood:

h850t850eu.png   h500slp.png

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Posted (edited)
9 minutes ago, weirpig said:

6z  brings over a week of very warm/hot temperatures   i expect it may will be an outlier on the ensembles     however one thing i know is that during the 12z run  no one will be screaming upgrade.  Remarkable 

Yup that is likely to be the case. Until there is a consensus on the amount of energy that drops to the SW / SSW then I'd treat any persistent heat after Thursday with a big pinch of salt. We can confidently say that Tuesday and Wednesday will be hot though.

If the model output is still showing 06z style output by Sunday evening however I will be concerned. The persistent level of heat at that intensity would cause health issues. There is no flow off the North Sea to keep a lid on things this time.

EDIT: 16 of the 22 ensemble members keep the heat over us on Thursday now as well, so the Atlantic being held back is becoming a theme............

I would say another 6 ensemble members are similar to the OP, including the control...

Edited by Quicksilver1989

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I think main question for next week now is how high can the temperatures go. Seems there's a real risk of something record breaking..................

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9 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

People were saying 40c would be possible if yesterday's 12z ECM came off... but the consensus was that it was very unlikely to come off.... so not exactly claptrap...

A few weeks ago, we saw the 20c isotherm do a quick fly by and 34c was topped, despite the ground being relatively wet and barely a day for pre heating. 

If it was to linger and envelop the entire country for a couple of days, as per the GFS 06z, then with the drier ground and pre heating a day before, I don’t think 38-39c could be completely ruled out. 40c would have a slim chance of actually being challenged. 

I for one would not want to imagine what that would feel like in this country though, given the levels of humidity. A Las Vegas 40c was hot enough, and that was with around 10% or less relative humidity. Although it would be one for the history books, and very interesting, I would be sparing a thought and sympathising for the elderly and vulnerable, who would find it extremely difficult to cope with. 

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Posted (edited)

Blimey, GFS 6z joins last nights ECM 12 and turns on the blowtorch full force. Night time minimums next Thursday morning in London don't drop below 27C all night and yet still very warm elsewhere.   By Friday morning its about 25C over much of the UK at 3am!!! Very dangerous levels of heat for the daytime with increased levels of humidity so will be uncomfortable.  Definitely echos of August 2003 next week on the 6z.

 

Edited by 38.5*C

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42 minutes ago, Craig84 said:

GFS 06z makes much less of the Atlantic push. The trough disrupts and drops further south drawing more heat up.

by next Thursday, this is the result....

36c in the London area, raw temps 😳

 

 

EB19B12C-E101-4D14-AA83-1DB6CCB6592A.jpeg

Crikey, that even has raw temps of 35c in parts of northern England which is highly unusual! 

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1 minute ago, DIS1970 said:

Always thought the 06z & 18z GFS output were the more accurate/reliable, so another 12 hour wait on this rather severe and possibly dangerous output for some people if may affect with health issues. 

Parts of the Loire region in France are showing a min temp of 28C at midnight next Thu/Fri with maxes of 39C at that time!  Output like that verifying will have unfortunate consequences.

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CAPE values mean nothing if there isn't a trigger though.

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GFS extending the unpleasant weather from two days to nearly a week. Could be some records tumbling if it's correct. Humidity looks to be the main problem as well. Hopefully it will back track quickly like last time.

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Posted (edited)

I realise it's very unlike to verify, but the prospect of 10C+ uppers coming around an Icelandic LP, from the northwest??? :shok:

h850t850eu.png   h500slp.png

Edited by Ed Stone

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Posted (edited)
17 minutes ago, DIS1970 said:

Always thought the 06z & 18z GFS output were the more accurate/reliable, so another 12 hour wait on this rather severe and possibly dangerous output for some people if may affect with health issues. 

The 0z and 12z runs have apperantly more data input, and are considered the more reliable. That may have changed with the new gfs model... Not sure on that though. 

Edited by Mattwolves

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13 minutes ago, weirpig said:

6z  brings over a week of very warm/hot temperatures   i expect it may will be an outlier on the ensembles     however one thing i know is that during the 12z run  no one will be screaming upgrade.  Remarkable 

If they do god help us.

As a few others have remarked. This is bad news for the elderly especially those in care homes as these properties don't factor in spending money on air con so the residents will generally bake. Anyone with breathing difficulties will also be in trouble. Pollution levels and pollen counts will also be another factor.

Just looking at Thursday 34C for here yuk.

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And, for the wider view, the ECMWF NH profiles for 24, 120 and 240:

npsh500.024.pngnpsh500.120.pngnpsh500.240.png

For as long as heights over Scandinavia remain robust, the SLP over Greenland remains largely irrelevant...?

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The GFS 06z Ops run is an outlier of sorts but certainly not completely out on its own. Mean down here doesn’t fall below 15c at 850level until next weekend down here! 

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Ensembles  mean nearly hitting 20  for central england   wow

image.thumb.png.d68ed56c866b34a43018384b3b12933e.png

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Well what a cliffhanger this mornings output leaves things on. Heat in the middle of next week with something potentially more intense or prolonged.

I'm off to the peak district now for a stag do till Sunday... lol no internet so I won't be able to keep track of how this hot spell develops.

giphy.gif?cid=790b76115d31ab0e2e752f4c2e

Maybe there will be a consensus by Sunday though when I get back! 😁

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VERY interesting 6z ensembles - a much larger group of members prolong the heat into Friday....it's in fact a majority now! 12/20 keep 850s above 15c, with 8 below. Could just be a one off, but it looks like a very big 12z run coming up this evening.

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22 minutes ago, The PIT said:

If they do god help us.

As a few others have remarked. This is bad news for the elderly especially those in care homes as these properties don't factor in spending money on air con so the residents will generally bake. Anyone with breathing difficulties will also be in trouble. Pollution levels and pollen counts will also be another factor.

Just looking at Thursday 34C for here yuk.

Yeh I understand what your saying... But its a catch 22 situation, when we are bigging up extreme cold in winter, we perhaps forget how many homeless and vulnerable people it will seriously harm. That's the problems with extremes, they come at a cost!! Luckily in our climate they still remain fairly infrequent!! This looks like a repeat of late June... Perhaps a little higher. Duration still uncertain. 

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