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Model output discussion - hot spell beckons but then what?


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This thread = Models, models and more models
Please remember that this thread is for discussing the model output only. If you want to chat about the summer weather more generally, please use the Summer chat and moans thread.

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Here, for what it's worth, is how the GFS 06Z ends up::unsure2:

h500slp.png   h850t850eu.png

PS: I'm just starting to learn about teleconnections so, should I make any glaring errors in that respect, they'll be entirely the fault of my own inability to understand...:oldgrin:

Edited by Ed Stone
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Roll on the weekend for me! Incredible watching the charts and waiting to see if all time records do go in various places. But it really is far too hot for me but enjoy it folks that do like such

Its been forgotten that the opening week or so of the month was warm both by day and night and the CET was (technically) well above average and the second third of the month has simply corrected that

Looking back at a previous post last weekend, and some thinking expressed back then, its clear that the lesser progressive solutions did lead the way in some erratic modelling that was forced into som

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Hmm again the GFS Ops run from the 06z output was the least progressive and is now an outlier later Wednesday and Thursday with a tight group of members rapidly sweeping the heat east and back to pretty much average by Thursday evening. Hot Tuesday across E+W, hot Wednesday Bournemouth to Doncaster, the heat probably resisted east of London Thursday based on the ensembles.

Has to be said the longer term output is now pretty meh with the 850 mean sitting below the LTA for pretty much the remainder of the run and a complete and utter contract to 18-24hrs ago. 

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Looking at the GEFS 6z regarding next week, it's rather progressive and by thursday there are around half the members still looking very warm / hot across eastern / southern england but already fresher and cooler further n / w..by friday apart from a rogue member all of the uk is into a cooler / fresher atlantic flow.

Edited by Jon Snow
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With such a battle between the high pressure, and low pressure midweek, What does this do for thunderstorm potential.. 
Will these lows be able to pull up enough moisture out of the sea to create lines of thunderstorms? 

I still don't know what to trust in the models

06 GFS seems to favour holding to the heat slightly longer (wednesday-Thursday).. but the low to the SW seems unable to get through it.. but it's close enough to form spells of rain.. hitting potentially very hot air?

Edited by ancientsolar
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9 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Hmm again the GFS Ops run from the 06z output was the least progressive and is now an outlier later Wednesday and Thursday with a tight group of members rapidly sweeping the heat east and back to pretty much average by Thursday evening. Hot Tuesday across E+W, hot Wednesday Bournemouth to Doncaster, the heat probably resisted east of London Thursday based on the ensembles.

Has to be said the longer term output is now pretty meh with the 850 mean sitting below the LTA for pretty much the remainder of the run and a complete and utter contract to 18-24hrs ago. 

The Ecm extended mean has indicated this for several days... Pretty much average conditions temperature wise. There is no major signal though for either settled or unsettled Conditions... Perhaps it pretty much typical UK summer conditions.... Not to bad away from the NW. The 6z is pretty much falling into line with the ECM by day 14....a mean of under 10c upper air temps, and the pressure around 1015mb.

Edited by Mattwolves
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9 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

The Ecm extended mean has indicated this for several days... Pretty much average conditions temperature wise. There is no major signal though for either settled or unsettled Conditions... Perhaps it pretty much typical UK summer conditions.... Not to bad away from the NW. The 6z is pretty much falling into line with the ECM by day 14....a mean of under 10c upper air temps, and the pressure around 1015mb.

Yep, after a couple days of interest followed by the usual let down thundery breakdown it’s back to bores-ville for the foreseeable future - off course for many that means plenty of usable weather. Can’t see anything other the ECM 12z backing off the from the 00z run either. While it’s the best model (although hasn’t felt that way recently) its out on its own in extending the warmth through the later part of the week. 

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I don't like saying this but the GEFS 6z mean has really downgraded the heat and longevity next week, even for the southeast..it's beginning to look rather ordinary compared to what was showing as recently as yesterday..much more progressive..doesn't mean it's right of course!!!

Edited by Jon Snow
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Here are the ECM clusters for Friday morning - you can see how much the Atlantic is struggling to break through. Not cut and dried! 

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2019072000_168.

GFS ensembles vs ECM ensembles? Usually you'd back the ECM every time, especially with a trough running into a block. 

Edited by Man With Beard
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8 minutes ago, Connor Bailey Degnan said:

Netwx-MR take on Thursday, dangerously hot for eastern areas. 38c being shown in London

Screenshot_20190720-125035_Messenger.jpg

Might be wrong but, I think that model is based off GFS data but is one run behind, so would reflect the GFS 00z. The GFS 6z was less extreme.

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10 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Here are the ECM clusters for Friday morning - you can see how much the Atlantic is struggling to break through. Not cut and dried! 

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2019072000_168.

GFS ensembles vs ECM ensembles? Usually you'd back the ECM every time, especially with a trough running into a block. 

Good point MWB, looking at the ECM precipitation charts would also indicate the Atlantic is struggling to breakthrough, with the bulk of rain and showers being pegged to the NW. 

Edited by Mattwolves
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24 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Yep, after a couple days of interest followed by the usual let down thundery breakdown it’s back to bores-ville for the foreseeable future - off course for many that means plenty of usable weather. Can’t see anything other the ECM 12z backing off the from the 00z run either. While it’s the best model (although hasn’t felt that way recently) its out on its own in extending the warmth through the later part of the week. 

God you really are miserable at times. We have a good 3/4 days at least of hot, sunny weather coming up - pretty good for the UK. It is relatively rare to get more than 3 days on the bounce with temperatures at 30c+ without it turning cooler at least temporarily. We’re hardly looking down the barrel of a June style trough once the heat clears. 

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Looking beyond the plume the GEFS 6z mean indicates a return to average temperatures and probably a generally N / S split with the north more unsettled than the south.

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4 minutes ago, danm said:

God you really are miserable at times. We have a good 3/4 days at least of hot, sunny weather coming up - pretty good for the UK. It is relatively rare to get more than 3 days on the bounce with temperatures at 30c+ without it turning cooler at least temporarily. We’re hardly looking down the barrel of a June style trough once the heat clears. 

In fairness to Chris I think has he pointed out, its useable conditions for most, without being spectacular. Yes it's a far cry from early June and for most it would be welcome. Not so welcome when your chasing extremes! 

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How many times does gfs over do the jet stream and atlantic influence. I trust ecm more with this one to be honest i cant see the low been that deep and we get close i assume it will modify which is better to keep the plume over us

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15 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

In fairness to Chris I think has he pointed out, its useable conditions for most, without being spectacular. Yes it's a far cry from early June and for most it would be welcome. Not so welcome when your chasing extremes! 

Chasing extremes leads to disappointment more often than not!

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26 minutes ago, danm said:

God you really are miserable at times. We have a good 3/4 days at least of hot, sunny weather coming up - pretty good for the UK. It is relatively rare to get more than 3 days on the bounce with temperatures at 30c+ without it turning cooler at least temporarily. We’re hardly looking down the barrel of a June style trough once the heat clears. 

Don’t see what is miserable about that, hot spell, followed by something of breakdown possibly lacking an widespread storm activity followed by usable if utterly boring weather. If summer was 23c every day and winter 9c I doubt forums like this would exist. Where all here because arguably when live in a dull, cool climate and relish those events each year that are really hot/cold 

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Just had a look at the long term ec46 and September Is coming up with below average precipitation and above average temperature anomaly for the bulk of the uk..... Patience... Let's see how this plays out!!! Indian summer anyone! ?

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All depends on the timing  of the cold front from the west next thursday, will it drag its heels or not?..if it does, the eastern half of the uk should be hot and humid on thursday and the SE would probably still be hot on friday. As for beyond that, I imagine the azores ridge building in across the south with further warm / very warm conditions, especially for the SE with the NW cooler and more unsettled.

Edited by Jon Snow
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5 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Don’t see what is miserable about that, hot spell, followed by something of breakdown possibly lacking an widespread storm activity followed by usable if utterly boring weather. If summer was 23c every day and winter 9c I doubt forums like this would exist. Where all here because arguably when live in a dull, cool climate and relish those events each year that are really hot/cold 

Won’t disagree with that.

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5 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Just had a look at the long term ec46 and September Is coming up with below average precipitation and above average temperature anomaly for the bulk of the uk..... Patience... Let's see how this plays out!!! Indian summer anyone! ?

Best to get the coat and wellies on standby now then if past performance is anything to go by.

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18 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Just had a look at the long term ec46 and September Is coming up with below average precipitation and above average temperature anomaly for the bulk of the uk..... Patience... Let's see how this plays out!!! Indian summer anyone! ?

That makes a lot of sense, I think...all that hot air isn't simply going to pack-up its bags and disappear, without leaving a trace. At least not with just a whimper, I hope.:oldgrin:

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Agree with many of the posts here. A 3 day spell (perhaps 4-5) of temperatures in the 30-35c range is well above par for the UK, and it doesn’t look like it’ll be a total washout after either. Nothing to get depressed about. Maybe it’s just a british trait to be pessimistic and unhappy with what you’ve been dealt and always look for more...

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