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Roger J Smith

August 2019 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests

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Posted (edited)

August CET averages and extremes
 

(the table includes all years 1981 to 2018, colour codes show warmest, middle and coolest thirds, and

all of these values are mean daily CET values, the average of daily max and min)

 

24.9 ... warmest August day (1st, 1995)

19.2 ... warmest August, 1995

18.9 ... second warmest August, 1997

18.7 ... third warmest August, 1975

18.6 ... fourth warmest August, 1947

18.3 ... fifth warmest Augusts (tied 1747 and 2003)

18.2 ... seventh warmest August, 1911

18.1 ... eighth warmest August, 1955

18.0 ... ninth warmest August, 1990

17.8 ... tied 10th warmest 1736, 1899

17.6 ... tied 12th warmest (with 1976 and earlier years) 1984, 2004 

17.3 ... 1983

17.1 ... 1991 

17.0 ... 2002, 2016 

16.9 ... 2013 

16.8 ... 2001 

16.6 ... 1989, 2000, 2009, 2012, 2018 

16.5 ... average of 1989 to 2018 and also 1991 to 2018 (emerging 1991 to 2020), 1996 

16.4 ... average of 1981-2010 and 1986-2015 and 2001-2018

16.2 ... average of 1971-2000, 1981, 2005, 2008 

16.1 ... 1999, 2006 

16.0 ... 1994 

15.9 ... 1998, 2015 

15.8 ... average of 1961-1990, and 1701-1800, and 1901-2000

15.7 ... 1982

15.6 ... average of 1659-2018 (15.64), and 1987, 2017

15.4 ... average of 1801-1900, and 2007, 2011 

15.3 ... 1992, 2010

15.2 ... 1988

15.1 ... average of 1659-1700

14.9 ... 2014

14.6 ... 1985, 1993 

13.7 ... coldest August since 1956 (1986) -- tied 16th coldest

13.6 ... tied 10th coldest (six years ... 1817, 1848, 1860, 1885, 1920, 1922)

13.5 ... coldest August since 1912 (1956) -- tied 5th coldest with 1674, 1683, 1844, 1845

13.3 ... fourth coldest August (1725)
13.0 ... second coldest Augusts (tie) (1694,1695)
12.9 ... coldest August, 1912

 9.5 ... coldest day to 16th (16th, 1888) ... earliest sub-10 value in August

 8.8 ... coldest August day (26th, 1864) ... although it was 7.1 C on 1 Sept of 1816

_________________________________________________________

Enter your CET forecasts by end of the day Wednesday, 31st July, or with increasing late penalties, up to end of Saturday, 3rd of August.

=======================================================================================

 

EWP forecasts 

192.9 mm __ wettest August 1766 to 2018 (1912) -- (192.1 mm in 1799 a close second)

156.5 mm __ wettest August 1981 to 2017 (2004) 

 78.8 mm ___ average for 1989-2018

 75.6 mm ___ average for 1981-2010

 14.4 mm ___ second driest August (1947)

 _ 9.1 mm ___ driest August 1766 to 2018 (1995) 

_____________________________________________________________________

Recent years: 2018 _ 76.7 mm ... ... 2017 _ 83.8 mm ... ... 2016 _ 67.5 mm ... ... 2015 _ 109.1 mm ... ... 2014 _ 118.9 mm ____

------------------------------------------------------------------------

Hadley EWP is used for contest scoring. Deadlines are the same as for CET contest. Add your EWP forecast to your CET forecast for one combined entry. You can enter either contest without making a forecast in the other category.

Good luck !! 

 

Edited by Roger J Smith

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19.0C and 20.2mm for me please. 

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Away for a few weeks so going to be warm and wet

 

17.3c and 102mm like 1983 the day the sun never shone

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Posted (edited)

Rest in pieces summer 2019!  21.5C  :oldsad:  Last sub 13C August in 1912.  Last sub 14C August in 1986.  Last sub 15C and last sub 15.5C August in 2014.

200mm from monsoons and Atlantic garbage!

Edited by Lettucing Gutted

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On 19/07/2019 at 18:38, Lettucing Gutted said:

Rest in pieces summer 2019!  21.5C  :oldsad:  Last sub 13C August in 1912.  Last sub 14C August in 1986.  Last sub 15C and last sub 15.5C August in 2014.

200mm from monsoons and Atlantic garbage!

Give it a few years before we start to see summer months returning this type of CET.  However, I think they will occur!

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I have a feeling August will start on a warm to hot note, but around or after the 15th, we will encounter some severe thunderstorms, particularly widespread. This will bring a change to the summer conditions and an early taste of autumn will start appearing. 

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7 minutes ago, Sunny76 said:

I have a feeling August will start on a warm to hot note, but around or after the 15th, we will encounter some severe thunderstorms, particularly widespread. This will bring a change to the summer conditions and an early taste of autumn will start appearing. 

As long as it's alright up to the 10th!.(In Dorset with the kids😁)..

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46 minutes ago, Big daddy 49 said:

As long as it's alright up to the 10th!.(In Dorset with the kids😁)..

Yeah, you’re good to go. September will be a cold one this year I feel.

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17.5C and 75mm please...Ta

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I'll go for 18C and 75mm please...

I can't see things being overly dry (temperature contrast between the very hot near-continent and the Atlantic ocean) but I expect (hope) that temps will reflect the occasional hot plume...:oldgrin:

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4 hours ago, Thundershine said:

14.5c, 250mm, and the dullest on record!

Wow you're a cheerful Charlie aren't you!.17.9.20mm.

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Just now, Big daddy 49 said:

Wow you're a cheerful Charlie aren't you!.17.9.20mm.

I actually enjoy cold wet and cloudy summers.

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