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Autumn 2019 - Moans, Ramps & Chat


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I have been thinking about our Autumn prospects and right now I think we might see quite an average to cool Sep-Oct but probably a milder and wetter Nov-Jan (leaning to a cold Feb-March).

With regards to Sep-Oct there seems to be minimal activity in the Tropics to generate MJO interference or a sustained jump in GLAAM so I suspect that we are looking at relatively unsettled weather akin to August and June. October could be quite wet since some US research asserts that +values in Nino region 4 correlate with October -AO so that may push the Jet Stream South.

For Nov-Jan although we have solar minimum and a neutral or easterly QBO, a neutral ENSO pattern and +PDO is a relatively unfavourable Pacific pattern so even if we keep a weak stratospheric vortex i suspect we might alternate between zonality and mid-latitude blocking rather than anything which would deliver more than transient spells.

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There is a horse chestnut not far from me, that always sees its leaves turn colour a good two weeks or more than anything else near it.. this often happens tail end of August, so will take a look at i

Please Please the Daily express, can you forecast the mildest, driest, sunniest, hottest winter for 1 million years this year.

Being into photography, the sheer beauty of it

Posted Images

On 23/08/2019 at 11:29, Dangerous55019 said:

During my early morning walk this morning I couldn’t help but notice that the autumn flame has been ignited once more... As this tree is definitely starting to show off it’s autumn plumage. ???:oldgrin:

19A0FA89-AD7A-48CB-BE40-D64096C01783.jpeg

I am not sure its autumn, although you would be sooner into autumn where you are I think.

Driving locally over the weekend I saw many examples of trees looking like that, however and I may be wrong it looks more like drought/heat stress or virus as it seemed more like 1 or 2 types of trees with this problem.
Locally I wouldn't expect to see autumn colours yet.

Having said that my vines seems to be dying back early this year but again it looks like the leaves have a leaf virus/worms rather that autumn.

PS I love all your photos you take.  

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The end is in sight...the welcoming arms of Autumn are almost around us. Really puts my mood up knowing Summer is behind us now,time to pack the aircon away soon! Might even be able to get out in the garden soon and enjoy it for once!

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42 minutes ago, markyo said:

The end is in sight...the welcoming arms of Autumn are almost around us. Really puts my mood up knowing Summer is behind us now,time to pack the aircon away soon! Might even be able to get out in the garden soon and enjoy it for once!

It's September on Sunday - hang in there !!

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4 hours ago, seaside 60 said:

I am not sure its autumn, although you would be sooner into autumn where you are I think.

Driving locally over the weekend I saw many examples of trees looking like that, however and I may be wrong it looks more like drought/heat stress or virus as it seemed more like 1 or 2 types of trees with this problem.
Locally I wouldn't expect to see autumn colours yet.

Having said that my vines seems to be dying back early this year but again it looks like the leaves have a leaf virus/worms rather that autumn.

PS I love all your photos you take.  

I always notice some trees starting to turn here at the end of August. Happens at the same time every year. 

By mid September, a lot more will have joined in.

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It looked autumnal first thing yesterday morning when it was foggy, then cleared up and it was 26C in the afternoon - so very much still summer.

A few trees are beginning to turn though, and by the weekend into next week it will certainly feel a lot more autumnal.

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Our fruit trees are yellowing and dropping odd leaves, though they have been doing the latter all year after the dry and hot/cold weather early on that stunted growth and allowed more disease. Their fruit yield looks terrible this year. I've seen a newish roadside "forest" that had lots of yellow leaves on trees that were only 5 or 6 years old - looked to be quite a few silver birch and they shed early anyway. At 6 years old and roadside - dividing two roads approaching a junction - they might have been "landscaped" rather than naturally seeded, so short of water to the roots and artifically heated by the roads a bit - but certainly plenty of yellowing young trees in there.

Edited by Aleman
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Signs of cooler weather starting to envelop parts of Russia as we move into September. Some runs showing the first air frost's & a snow risk around the 12th.

gfs-yakutsk-ru-62n-1295e.thumb.jpeg.70540936f8289cc8972fddf03edc16cb.jpeg

340504893_gfs-yakutsk-ru-62n-1295e(1).thumb.jpeg.0a6edf8f7df6bbdef28baf02567b8564.jpeg

762844112_gfs-yakutsk-ru-62n-1295e(2).thumb.jpeg.8e4c470a0bb188afdc8ffbeca5deee00.jpeg

Edited by Frost HoIIow
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Funny I've been driving a lot around the City today, and the trees are definitely starting to turn and rather noticable at that around the tops. I stated that I thought we're ahead this year but we clearly are. Horse chestnut are very advanced but even popular and the lime trees,aren't looking brilliant for the end of August. 

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The tree outside my bedroom window has had a few brown leaves on it for a couple of weeks now as the wet and windy weather during the middle of the month was enough to start the change. 

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TWO Autumn forecast

Autumn 2019: Mild and quite wet

Quote

Forecast overview

The forecast headline is for a milder than average autumn. On balance there is considered to be a greater chance of above rather than below average rainfall.

Temperature

The aggregated Central England Temperature (CET) for September, October and November is forecast to be 0.5C to 1.0C above the average.

Precipitation

Over the three month period precipitation levels are forecast to be between 95% to 115% of the average.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/forecast/uk-seasonal-weather-forecast

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