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Autumn 2019 - Moans, Ramps & Chat


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12 hours ago, Mattwolves said:

I'm not quite following what your agenda is here!! In all honesty it would be a complete waste of time to say at this stage, that the coming winter will be either very mild, or cold.... Its far to early to make those conclusions. The fact is, that we have a colder spell on the way.... Could be some sharp frosts, could be a wee bit of snow.... Its a possibility. Beyond that is open to scrutiny!! Regardless of what exter say. We start with a clean slate come this Sunday... 1st of December... Let's see how the first few weeks unfold, before we begin to make any sweeping judgement on a long season ahead. I pointed out after Sundays impressive model runs, that it was changing on a daily basis... Just because today, things look less promising, doesn't mean tomorrow won't be more encouraging again. 

Yesterday is the past, tomorrow is the future, but today is a gift. That's why it's called the present. 

these days I don't even think about cold, view models looking for dry weather, still looks okay for early Dec

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There is a horse chestnut not far from me, that always sees its leaves turn colour a good two weeks or more than anything else near it.. this often happens tail end of August, so will take a look at i

Please Please the Daily express, can you forecast the mildest, driest, sunniest, hottest winter for 1 million years this year.

Being into photography, the sheer beauty of it

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Well now that autumn is coming to a close, I can say that it has been one of the most unpleasant I can remember. Bar a beautiful week in mid September, a few days of dramatic rainfall, and the surprise snow falling last week, it has been a dull, very wet and predominantly boring few months.

Hopefully winter will make up for this autumn!

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3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

biggest worry is only the odd straggler had an SSW in late winter too, need to hope the GLOSEA5 performs like it did last year.

The very fact we are pretty much reliant on a SSW for any hope of cold is another matter.

SSW is a complete waste of time in late Winter anyway, just means a good chance of cold in spring.(no ta).

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2 hours ago, MP-R said:

Well now that autumn is coming to a close, I can say that it has been one of the most unpleasant I can remember. Bar a beautiful week in mid September, a few days of dramatic rainfall, and the surprise snow falling last week, it has been a dull, very wet and predominantly boring few months.

Hopefully winter will make up for this autumn!

Ive just watched the meto live update and the chance of a SSW is very low, indeed they are saying strong PV for Dec!! 

Starting to get that sinking feeling.

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16 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Ive just watched the meto live update and the chance of a SSW is very low, indeed they are saying strong PV for Dec!! 

Starting to get that sinking feeling.

Let’s look on the upside tho , they forecast a mild above average autumn and that’s gonna be a bust .  I know that’s what we don’t like to here from them but it’s not a given ?

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4 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Let’s look on the upside tho , they forecast a mild above average autumn and that’s gonna be a bust .  I know that’s what we don’t like to here from them but it’s not a given ?

Hope you are right ?

TBH im fearing another crappy rainy mild winter so with that in mind i will make the most of the coming 4 or 5 dry days ..

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39 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Ive just watched the meto live update and the chance of a SSW is very low, indeed they are saying strong PV for Dec!! 

Starting to get that sinking feeling.

I honestly wouldn’t worry about it northwestsnow. They forecast a easterly for weeks last year that never happened. We can still get very cold spells with a strong polar vortex anyway. I’m very optimistic about this winter think we will get a least one month with a CET below 2c 

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57 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Ive just watched the meto live update and the chance of a SSW is very low, indeed they are saying strong PV for Dec!! 

Starting to get that sinking feeling.

Understandable, but given their track record, I'm not going to worry just yet. There's always the chance that we get a strong Atlantic from between W and N which would be much more interesting than a more autumnal jet profile from between W and S. Recently, when the models have defaulted to Atlantic conditions, high pressure has tended to sink SWwards rather than towards the continent.

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27 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Let’s look on the upside tho , they forecast a mild above average autumn and that’s gonna be a bust .  I know that’s what we don’t like to here from them but it’s not a given ?

You're still going down that contingency planning road even though they didn't forecast such a thing?! Why would they also state a 10% chance of Oct - Dec falling in to the coldest of their 5 categories? It's to do with probabilities, not simply stating it will be mild or it will be cold. That's the exact reason why you people need to steer clear of those contingency planning forecasts, you do not understand how they work and you get the wrong ideas about them.

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1 hour ago, northwestsnow said:

Ive just watched the meto live update and the chance of a SSW is very low, indeed they are saying strong PV for Dec!! 

Starting to get that sinking feeling.

I'm not surprised they have said this. As I said last night in the model thread, there is little to force a cold pattern for us this winter. The Pacific set up is just not conducive.

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1 hour ago, northwestsnow said:

The very fact we are pretty much reliant on a SSW for any hope of cold is another matter.

SSW is a complete waste of time in late Winter anyway, just means a good chance of cold in spring.(no ta).

eh? march 2018 was very cold and snowy,

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I have seen a number of posts in the chasing cold thread recently along the lines 'it's definitely not showing mild' as if others had been suggesting this outlandish outcome, Bulverism at it's best and I suspect it's a release mechanism when things aren't going to plan

Edited by knocker
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3 minutes ago, knocker said:

I have seen a number of posts in the chasing cold thread recently along the lines 'it's definitely not showing mild' as if others had been suggesting this outlandish outcome, Bulverism at it's best and I suspect it's a release mechanism when things aren't going to plan

You will see most of my posts in here for the forseeable...

Taking away a few days through the weekend the models are trending horrendously for those of us wanting cold weather..

 

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4 hours ago, MP-R said:

Well now that autumn is coming to a close, I can say that it has been one of the most unpleasant I can remember. Bar a beautiful week in mid September, a few days of dramatic rainfall, and the surprise snow falling last week, it has been a dull, very wet and predominantly boring few months.

Hopefully winter will make up for this autumn!

Agreed. I was saying to a neighbour earlier today that the last 6 weeks or so have been the wettest here for many years. Maybe it is just perception, but the last 2 to 3 years seem to have been relatively dry. Mid -late Autumn, this year, has been wet and quite cool. 

My Winter preferences have changed markedly in last couple of years. I still love a cold, snowy period, but if it has to be a No-Snow Winter give me a December 2015, for all of Winter, i.e. v mild, and throw in some sunny days courtesy of the AH.

Edited by Bristle boy
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11 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

You will see most of my posts in here for the forseeable...

Taking away a few days through the weekend the models are trending horrendously for those of us wanting cold weather..

 

Yes think it's time to batten down hatches going into december.all subject to change but the PV looks like hitting the steroids!!

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not all is lost if we get a cold zonal flow ,higher areas can get wintry weather.

 

But frustrating when you look at the 72 hour chart,you would think that would be the start of a very cold spell,but nope.

Uk really is a useless place to live for cold weather fans,even one week of cold and snowy weather,seems hard to come by,away from the higher hills.

Best thing to do is book a two week holiday in Canada,during the winter ?⛷️

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50 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

You will see most of my posts in here for the forseeable...

Taking away a few days through the weekend the models are trending horrendously for those of us wanting cold weather..

 

is that anything new? cold weather as we all know is getting less frequent as years go on, setups that would have produced snow 24+ or so years ago, you feel will be just rain now at low levels, I'm sure even hills get less cold/snow than they used to pre '98 or so

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4 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

not all is lost if we get a cold zonal flow ,higher areas can get wintry weather.

 

But frustrating when you look at the 72 hour chart,you would think that would be the start of a very cold spell,but nope.

Uk really is a useless place to live for cold weather fans,even one week of cold and snowy weather,seems hard to come by,away from the higher hills.

Best thing to do is book a two week holiday in Canada,during the winter ?⛷️

It has certainly been that way, by and large since about 1987.Of course there have been cold spells but i feel they are getting harder to come by.

Whether its a phase i don't know but i be damned if im going to waste another winter staring at charts with an uber PV and rampant Atlantic hoping something at T+300 hours comes off.

After an absolutely disgusting Autumn i was hoping for something different come Dec...

I wouldn't be at all suprised if Dec turns into an utter washout.

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1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

It has certainly been that way, by and large since about 1987.Of course there have been cold spells but i feel they are getting harder to come by.

Whether its a phase i don't know but i be damned if im going to waste another winter staring at charts with an uber PV and rampant Atlantic hoping something at T+300 hours comes off.

After an absolutely disgusting Autumn i was hoping for something different come Dec...

I wouldn't be at all suprised if Dec turns into an utter washout.

finally a realistic post on this thread, hoping not a washout Dec, but almost certainly above average temps, high chance that the 1st and 2nd will be the coldest 2 days of month

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My god, I've had a few hours away from here today.... Now I wished I would have made it a few weeks!!! We can't get cold snaps anymore!! We are not going to have an SSW! winter is over!! Talk about throw in the dam towel a week before winter has even began!! That's my rant over.... Time to reach for the prozac ?

giphy.gif

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2 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

My god, I've had a few hours away from here today.... Now I wished I would have made it a few weeks!!! We can't get cold snaps anymore!! We are not going to have an SSW! winter is over!! Talk about throw in the dam towel a week before winter has even began!! That's my rant over.... Time to reach for the prozac ?

giphy.gif

Realistic expectations Matt.

UK winters tend to range between cool and mild.

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