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Autumn 2019 - Moans, Ramps & Chat

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On 06/11/2019 at 09:49, karyo said:

Yes, almost every month lately is either the warmest or second warmest on record. And this is without an El Nino.

Yes, not looking forward to what will happen when we next have a Super Nino!

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The met office have issued a yellow warning for heavy rain in parts of Northern Ireland during Saturday

5am to 8pm

What to expect

  • Delays or cancellations to train and bus services are possible
  • Spray and flooding could lead to difficult driving conditions and some road closures
  • There is a small chance that some communities become cut off by flooded roads
  • There is a small chance that homes and businesses could be flooded, causing damage to some buildings

A band of heavy rain will spread east across Northern Ireland overnight into Saturday morning, becoming slow-moving across eastern areas through the day, before dying out in the evening. 20-30 mm of rain is expected widely across the east, with 40-50 mm possible in some areas, most likely in County Down.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/warnings-and-advice/uk-warnings#?date=2019-11-09&id=d6f88ebf-87a1-4139-aa9a-12c52179dbd7&details

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Well the odd thing about the rainfall for the past five months had been the lack of flooding however it now looks like we are close to the tipping point that continued wet spells hit. We might avoid the mass flooding this time however there are a couple of heavier events forecast next week.

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6 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

Well the odd thing about the rainfall for the past five months had been the lack of flooding however it now looks like we are close to the tipping point that continued wet spells hit. We might avoid the mass flooding this time however there are a couple of heavier events forecast next week.

🤔🤔were on flood alert again today.hopefully a good drying period after the next week ,ten days

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6 danger to life flood warnings issued.

  • River Don at Barnby Dun
  • River Don at Bentley
  • River Don at Kirk Bramwith
  • River Don at Kirk Sandall
  • River Don at South Bramwith
  • River Don at Willow Bridge Caravan Site

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It was looking like a dry year up to this point:

1st January - 21st September 2019: 376.2mm

Since then we've had this:

22nd September - 8th November 2019: 327.6mm

We're already 41.2mm above Autumn 2000's rainfall total. Another 17.7mm and we'll beat our wettest ever season (Summer 2007).

Edited by reef

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1 hour ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Some GEFS members getting closer to proper cold.

image.thumb.png.27531e1ceccae4f23b89cf737684abaf.png

That's a seriously cold chart for the time of year.

I can recall going through the entire winters of many recent years and not even see the minus 10 line near much of Europe nevermind the minus 20 line approaching lol.

And it's only early November, remember!

I wonder if the  minus 28 line and the black hole will be showing up this year!

Think the seasonal models will be showing a big change when they have their next update.

The lack of interest and posts in here is really surprising when you think of how much Zonal dross we see normally at this time of year and continuing for weeks!

Edited by SLEETY

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15 hours ago, reef said:

It was looking like a dry year up to this point:

1st January - 21st September 2019: 376.2mm

Since then we've had this:

22nd September - 8th November 2019: 327.6mm

We're already 41.2mm above Autumn 2000's rainfall total. Another 17.7mm and we'll beat our wettest ever season (Summer 2007).

Something similiar happened in 1929 although that was nationally

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Frosty this morning

 

Edited by Weather-history

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16 hours ago, reef said:

It was looking like a dry year up to this point:

1st January - 21st September 2019: 376.2mm

Since then we've had this:

22nd September - 8th November 2019: 327.6mm

We're already 41.2mm above Autumn 2000's rainfall total. Another 17.7mm and we'll beat our wettest ever season (Summer 2007).

Pearson Park, Hull 1929, rainfall totals in inches

Jan: 2.08

Feb: 0.90

Mar: 0.12

Apr: 1.06

May: 1.26

Jun: 1.45

Jul: 1.71

Aug: 2.06

Sep: 0.76

Oct: 2.10

Nov: 3.71

Dec: 3.84

Total of 21.05 inches, 35% of which fell in the last two months of that year.

It was more dramatic in other parts of the country for instance Seathwaite in Cumbria

Seathwaite
Jan-Sept: 64.6"
Oct-Dec: 71.9"

Oxford
Jan-Sept: 7.6"
Oct-Dec: 14.8"

 

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After the battering handed out by mother nature this week for the North of England her better side is seen this morning,blue skies,jewelled trees glistening with frost,grass with that fantastic white translucent rug over it ,near enough the perfect Autumnal day🙂

Edited by markyo

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7 hours ago, SLEETY said:

The lack of interest and posts in here is really surprising when you think of how much Zonal dross we see normally at this time of year and continuing for weeks!

Perhaps people are for once being cautious after last year's tease and promise largely came to nothing? I'm sure if the charts start to show a full on 'beast', even in FI, the place will explode as usual. 

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1 hour ago, Summer Sun said:

Braemar has recorded the lowest temperature of Autumn so far with a low of -7.0c overnight

Colder temperatures are being forecast for parts of Aberdeenshire tonight.

Today feels like winter proper, hard overnight frost has yet to lift. Temperature still below zero.

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Overnight min 0.2C, currently 4.1C.  Netweather reports 2.7C for my location but that will the temp. reported by Liverpool AP whereas I live in a minor UHI.  Currently dry but the cloud has that yellowish tint of snow cloud.  Glad I'm getting a taxi to my local leisure centre this afternoon as being out and about in that sort of temp. would be risky. 

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16 minutes ago, Wildswimmer Pete said:

Overnight min 0.2C, currently 4.1C.  Netweather reports 2.7C for my location but that will the temp. reported by Liverpool AP whereas I live in a minor UHI.  Currently dry but the cloud has that yellowish tint of snow cloud.  Glad I'm getting a taxi to my local leisure centre this afternoon as being out and about in that sort of temp. would be risky. 

Stay safe Pete, this Autumn must be very difficult for you. 

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_109592055_1.jpg
WWW.BBC.CO.UK

Police and traffic officials warn of poor conditions across north and mid Wales.

Snow looking more probable fo the North on Monday and even possible across much of the South on Thursday.

 

Edited by Aleman

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10 hours ago, markyo said:

Stay safe Pete, this Autumn must be very difficult for you. 

Thanks Markyo.

Fortunately I wore my electrically heated jacket and at high power it can be like a portable sauna, usually mid- or even low power is enough but today was that cutting wind and icy rain so it was full power.  Spent much of the afternoon in 30C water listening to classic Sixties hits - yes, waterproof mp3 player.

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12 hours ago, Wildswimmer Pete said:

Thanks Markyo.

Fortunately I wore my electrically heated jacket and at high power it can be like a portable sauna, usually mid- or even low power is enough but today was that cutting wind and icy rain so it was full power.  Spent much of the afternoon in 30C water listening to classic Sixties hits - yes, waterproof mp3 player.

Sounds like a pretty good way to spend a cold wet Autumns day! Nothing wrong with Sixties hits either! You may need to try this a few more times this week,looking a tad cool especially with the wind chill. 

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The met office have issued a yellow warning for heavy rain on Thursday

00:00 to 23:45

Regions and local authorities affected:

East Midlands

  • Derby
  • Derbyshire
  • Leicestershire
  • Lincolnshire
  • Nottingham
  • Nottinghamshire

Yorkshire & Humber

  • North East Lincolnshire
  • North Lincolnshire
  • South Yorkshire

Headline

  • Risk of further heavy rain across areas which are experiencing ongoing flooding.

What to expect

  • There is a small chance that homes and businesses could be flooded, causing damage to some buildings
  • There is a small chance of fast flowing or deep floodwater causing danger to life
  • Where flooding occurs, there is a slight chance of delays or cancellations to train and bus services
  • Spray and flooding could lead to difficult driving conditions and some road closures
  • There is a small chance that some communities become cut off by flooded roads
  • There is a slight chance of power cuts and loss of other services to some homes and businesses

Further details

A period of heavy rain may affect the area through Thursday, bringing further disruption. Uncertainty in the location of any heavier rainfall is high, though with ongoing flooding across the area, even relatively small amounts of rain may cause significant impacts. 15-25 mm of rainfall is possible by the end of Thursday.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/warnings-and-advice/accessible-uk-warnings

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