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Autumn 2019 - Moans, Ramps & Chat

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Glad thess lows are coming on an low running trajectory with the jet as it is much higher chances of no damaging gales.

Winds flowing in all different directions make it all the more interesting,little or no SWlys for the time being all month looking possible then cold NElys.

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15 hours ago, Sceptical said:

Globally, last month was the warmest October on record.

Yes, almost every month lately is either the warmest or second warmest on record. And this is without an El Nino.

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20 hours ago, Jo Farrow said:

WHEN is it going to SNOW? Halloween is over, Bonfire night heading to old news so the next thing is "will it snow, will it be a White Christmas" for the tabloid headlines.

Today we've had an enquiry about likelihood of snow, any real decent snow coming up, this winter. They did ask for evidence, which is encouraging. (it wasn't the Express)

So what can we say, we can't state there will be another Beast from the East which would be the best answer for the media. There is no blanket of snow in the 7-10 day forecast and no particular signs Nov into Dec. 

Yet we know if they ask elsewhere, someone will create what the newspapers want , the hype. Cold weather bingo begins - the worst/coldest winter in ** years, ** days of snow.Bookies have slashed odds on a White Christmas. 

The endless rain and flooding won't be keeping the online interest, the winter stories are in demand. How to manage the response and stay involved without the Fake news?

expressshite0511.png

Snow showing for the North on Sunday on lots of high and middling ground and maybe even a bit of sleet for the South, as it was showing yesterday, too. Whether it arrives or not remains to be seen.

WWW.METEOCIEL.FR

Meteociel propose des cartes du modèle americain de GFS

I used to live at 950 feet as a kid and I don't ever remember it snowing until after Christmas. My friends and I all had sleds so we got frustrated waiting!

 

 

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Updated rain warnings:

6am Thursday to 6am Friday

Regions and local authorities affected:

East Midlands

  • Derbyshire
  • Lincolnshire
  • Nottinghamshire

North East England

  • Darlington
  • Durham
  • Hartlepool
  • Middlesbrough
  • Redcar and Cleveland
  • Stockton-on-Tees

North West England

  • Greater Manchester
  • Lancashire

Yorkshire & Humber

  • East Riding of Yorkshire
  • Kingston upon Hull
  • North East Lincolnshire
  • North Lincolnshire
  • North Yorkshire
  • South Yorkshire
  • West Yorkshire
  • York

Headline

  • Prolonged rain through Thursday and overnight into Friday may bring disruption from flooding.

What to expect

  • Homes and businesses could be flooded, causing damage to some buildings
  • Fast flowing or deep floodwater is possible, with a risk that some communities may be cut off by flooded roads
  • Delays or cancellations to train and bus services are possible
  • Spray and flooding could lead to difficult driving conditions and some road closures
  • Fast flowing or deep floodwater is possible, causing a danger to life

Reason for update

  • Update to warning area with likelihood increased.

Further details

Rain, prolonged and occasionally heavy, will affect the yellow area during Thursday. The rain will gradually ease overnight and clear away during the early hours of Friday. 20-40 mm of rain is expected over quite a wide area, with 60-80 mm falling in a few locations over high ground, through the period. The rain will be accompanied by strengthening northeasterly winds, which may lead to significant leaf fall and impede drainage in places.

__________________________________________

9am Thursday to 23:59 Thursday

Regions and local authorities affected:

North West England

  • Cheshire West and Chester
  • Merseyside

Wales

  • Conwy
  • Denbighshire
  • Flintshire
  • Gwynedd
  • Wrexham

Headline

  • Heavy rain may lead to some disruption.

What to expect

  • There is a small chance that homes and businesses could be flooded, causing damage to some buildings
  • There is a small chance of fast flowing or deep floodwater causing danger to life
  • Where flooding occurs, there is a slight chance of delays or cancellations to train and bus services
  • Spray and flooding could lead to difficult driving conditions and some road closures
  • There is a small chance that some communities become cut off by flooded roads
  • There is a slight chance of power cuts and loss of other services to some homes and businesses

Further details

Rain is expected to become heavy and persistent across parts of north Wales on Thursday, with many places seeing 20-30 mm of rain. Strong northeasterly winds are expected to bring large amounts of rain to north facing hills with the potential for 50-70mm of rain which may lead to some flooding.

__________________________________________

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/warnings-and-advice/accessible-uk-warnings#warningCard0

 

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20 hours ago, Sceptical said:

Globally, last month was the warmest October on record.

Whom are you quoting? Weatherbell has +0.419C last month versus +0.422C for 2005  and +0.495C for 2015 so just edged into 3rd place.

 

I've just been out to try rearrange my bonfire in daylight after being unable to get it to remain alight last night with wood and branches being soaked from weeks of drizzle, and a bit more until 2pm yesterday. It's currently 6.4C so it looks like my high for the day is in, at 6.8C. Without sun, that's pretty chilly for messing in the garden - although I'm glad it's not rained again!

Edited by Aleman

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11 minutes ago, Aleman said:

Whom are you quoting? Weatherbell has +0.419C last month versus +0.422C for 2005  and +0.495C for 2015 so just edged into 3rd place.

 

I've just been out to try rearrange my bonfire in daylight after being unable to get it to remain alight last night with wood and branches being soaked from weeks of drizzle, and a bit more until 2pm yesterday. It's currently 6.4C so it looks like my high for the day is in, at 6.8C. Without sun, that's pretty chilly for messing in the garden - although I'm glad it's not rained again!

The EUs EMS Copernicus.

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On 05/11/2019 at 13:23, Jo Farrow said:

WHEN is it going to SNOW? Halloween is over, Bonfire night heading to old news so the next thing is "will it snow, will it be a White Christmas" for the tabloid headlines.

Today we've had an enquiry about likelihood of snow, any real decent snow coming up, this winter. They did ask for evidence, which is encouraging. (it wasn't the Express)

So what can we say, we can't state there will be another Beast from the East which would be the best answer for the media. There is no blanket of snow in the 7-10 day forecast and no particular signs Nov into Dec. 

Yet we know if they ask elsewhere, someone will create what the newspapers want , the hype. Cold weather bingo begins - the worst/coldest winter in ** years, ** days of snow.Bookies have slashed odds on a White Christmas. 

The endless rain and flooding won't be keeping the online interest, the winter stories are in demand. How to manage the response and stay involved without the Fake news?

expressshite0511.png

Jo Farrow 

since you wrote this I’ve had three media outlets snow stories posted on Facebook by people in Kent... 

Including this one today... silly season has started... they will probably be pushing betting on a white Christmas soon... 

WWW.KENTLIVE.NEWS

Temperatures plummeted yesterday (November 5) and the bitter colder-than-average conditions could last for at least a week

 

 

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Thanks.

3 hours ago, Sceptical said:

The EUs EMS Copernicus.

Thanks. I've had a look at their anomaly image for October's quoted  +0.690C and it seems to be missing the cooler weather around the equator I was expecting to see for last month and in India during and after the heavy Monsoon flooding. I'm surprised they've got northern Mexico warm with the exceptional cold fronts flowing down the Rockies last month that broke records from Idaho (-43C/-45F new October record low for anywhere in US) down to New Mexico and West Texas, and Mexico I thought.

665aa6be-f1d6-412a-b157-e7866a1d98ee-AP_
EU.USATODAY.COM

A wave of Arctic air is bringing temperatures 30 to 50 degrees below normal across Colorado, Texas and the central Plains

https://twitter.com/NWSAlbuquerque/status/1189998128960700416/photo/1

Temp_departures.gif
WEATHER.COM

It felt more like mid-winter than fall in these areas as October ended.

 

Also I have a friend on the UK south coast I converse with about weather on most working days and got the impression they shared in our miserable cool, wet October. Friends living in the Dolomite foothills of Italy thought it was cool last month and there was early snow there which you can see as a blue bit on WeatherBELL if you enlarge. WeatherBELL's +0.419C map seems a better match to the little bits I know about. It has the US/Mexico border, Italy, India and the south Coast as I would have expected.  In recent years, I've sometimes found occasional disagreement between anomaly maps. I've never been able to fault WeatherBELL so I tend to refer to that ahead of others.

map_1month_anomaly_Global_ea_2t_201910_vncep_cfsr_t2m_anom_102019.png

Anybody have any comment on the 0.271C difference between the two? Anomaly numbers get touted around main media like gospel yet regular differences in output suggests some significant error that does not get mentioned.

 

 

 

Edited by Aleman

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1 hour ago, Summer Sun said:

Grim.

Just watching GFS 00z and plenty of rain incoming.

All courtesy of that god forsaken vortex spewing energy across the Atlantic,again.

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43 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Grim.

Just watching GFS 00z and plenty of rain incoming.

All courtesy of that god forsaken vortex spewing energy across the Atlantic,again.

We're only 3.8mm below Autumn 2000 and the rain hasn't even arrived yet. That's not far off 300mm in 46 days here - or almost 6 months worth of rain!

Edited by reef

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2 minutes ago, reef said:

We're only 3.8mm below Autumn 2000 and the rain hasn't even arrived yet. That's not far off 300mm in 46 days here - or almost 6 months worth of rain!

Horrendous.

All i want is a dry spell to enjoy Autumn, i'm getting really really hacked off with it now..

As a consequence most of my posts for the foreseeable will most likely be found in here.

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10 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Horrendous.

All i want is a dry spell to enjoy Autumn, i'm getting really really hacked off with it now..

As a consequence most of my posts for the foreseeable will most likely be found in here.

looking at the radar some places  might  need a arc  its looking nasty for some places

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5 minutes ago, tinybill said:

looking at the radar some places  might  need a arc  its looking nasty for some places

For sure.

Probably western facing hills where i live.

We just can't buy stable high pressure..

 

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3 hours ago, northwestsnow said:

For sure.

Probably western facing hills where i live.

We just can't buy stable high pressure..

 

dreadfull NW.were just in the lee of the peaks in Sheffield.horiffic here and also were a catchment area!!!

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Can see why an amber warning is out. Flooding likely within that zone looking at the 48-hour totals.

EIwoeZNX0AErLjY.thumb.png.74a7108d5147d8682a967b14ef600f19.png

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20 hours ago, WillinGlossop said:

Jo Farrow 

since you wrote this I’ve had three media outlets snow stories posted on Facebook by people in Kent... 

Including this one today... silly season has started... they will probably be pushing betting on a white Christmas soon... 

spacer.png
WWW.KENTLIVE.NEWS

Temperatures plummeted yesterday (November 5) and the bitter colder-than-average conditions could last for at least a week

 

 

The Express are like a sausage factory churning out snow nonsense  every hour. When snow is actually coming I do worry that no-one will pay any attention

 

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The entire UK sees snow risk at some point over the next week building up to a possible significant event next Thursday.  The output looks dramatic but it's worth cautioning that there will be rain to wash it away and the gound is likely too warm in November for it to settle so snow fall does not equate to snow settling. It will probably mostly just be more wet and cold!

 

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1 hour ago, Aleman said:

The entire UK sees snow risk at some point over the next week building up to a possible significant event next Thursday.  The output looks dramatic but it's worth cautioning that there will be rain to wash it away and the gound is likely too warm in November for it to settle so snow fall does not equate to snow settling. It will probably mostly just be more wet and cold!

 

I've seen settling snow at low levels in the South of England in October before. If the air is cold enough and dew points low enough, snow can settle.

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17 minutes ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

When’s the last time we had a colder than average autumn and by how much ?

I would have said 2012, something like 0.4C below the 1961-90 average

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Surely with all the positive signals and upcoming chilly spell, is it time for a little

 

3C9295AC-6F7C-43FF-B11F-F668A62B9D9F.jpeg

Edited by V for Very Cold

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