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Autumn 2019 - Moans, Ramps & Chat

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The radar must have a fault this morning

By this it should be raining over Darlington

461301898_download(1).thumb.png.8587e9c59960835c36b8c6ea5dd782ae.png

I can confirm it isn't raining just cloudy

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16 hours ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Hello Met Office contingency planners forecasts of a severely warm Autumn.

image.thumb.png.0e7b71a18d6200e9bf4a0585920ae80f.png

Fingers crossed that comes off and extends until next March:)

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31 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

12z ICON presents a very blocked polar picture at 180 with a reverse flow across Russia -

It appears to be deeply -AO however due to the overwhelming heat ridges over some of the mid lattitudes it does temper the measure- 

Impressive for the time of year on the back of 2 startling statistics

- 2019 Record breaking year with the most consecutive number of negative NAO days

- 2019 highest 500MB height anomalies ever recorded over the Arctic region in the summer.

This in itself is enough to encourage winter lovers for the UK 2019/20 Winter.

605DC0A8-4455-4E16-A405-FC58D974658E.thumb.png.9b76d00f98325db05cc010f6acb89a00.png

Can I ask; Why did you say 'forget the teleconnections' back in August regarding Winter forecasts?

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14 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

Can I ask; Why did you say 'forget the teleconnections' back in August regarding Winter forecasts?

Because what 'may' become the important factor for our winter wont be your old fashioned ENSO / MJO /QBO / Strat top forecasts if the anomalous polar warmth & stratospheric disconnect over-rides them all-

All of the above will certainly be an influence however Arctic Amplification I would say has had its most significant year & this cannot yet be quantified as a teleconnection- 

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Credit Z.Labe.

You 'could' argue that the AO is the biggest barometer however historically this & the NAO would be considered as 'effect' not cause for weather patterns-

This Winter the SSTA around 60-80N + Arctic warmth in the troposphere may well skew the SAI at a rate that influences the feedback loops more so than historic years.  

Solar input should 'support' the polar profiles.

Also impacts from the weakened SH jet may yet influence a SSW this year -

 

Basic in a nutshell the rate of change of the pole will impact the atmospheric conditions far more than the variables we are used to...

Edited by Steve Murr

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On 21/09/2019 at 21:24, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

eh? I thought I was the only one that wants it warm and dry, and wants no rain, no cold and an Indian Summer for next 6 weeks or so

can already feel it warming up, so that's a good sign, no more awful 3 degrees at 7am tomorrow, more like 15 degrees

Most of us want it warm and dry, it’s just that we’re usually outdoors making the most of it. 

Not much time spent outdoors today with the rain though. Good day for doing nothing. Tomorrow looks better.

Edited by cheese

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A yellow warning for heavy rain has been issued for most of England and Wales tomorrow

 

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Their twitter graphic says 20 - 40mm, but the warning information says 15 - 30mm. 🤦‍♂️

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6 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

Their twitter graphic says 20 - 40mm, but the warning information says 15 - 30mm. 🤦‍♂️

With Draft Friday yesterday in the text forecast and this error today I really do wonder now if they bother to proof read before submitting content these days

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another fantastic weekend here...wall to wall sunshine..22c on Saturday..24c yesterday..all down hill from here with some snow forecast at the weekend...hoping for some more nice weekends in October before winter proper arrives

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A pretty nasty Autumn day. Some brightness earlier on but now back to the British climate's default position: thick cloud. Outdoor temp 15.8C and moderate rain.  If this is Humberto's "sting in tail" I feel some very heavy rain is following behind.  

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hope so SS, GFS flirting with it, but on many runs now ex hurricane could interfere with things

gfs-0-210.png?12

and this is where ex hurricane is by 5th, looks rather ugly on this run anyway

gfs-0-288.png?12

Edited by I remember Atlantic 252

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Yet another month where a promisingly settled and perhaps drier than average month ends up being substantially wetter than normal due to a torrential all day downpour of some sort. Seems to be a repeat theme these last 3 months.

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5 minutes ago, Thundershine said:

Yet another month where a promisingly settled and perhaps drier than average month ends up being substantially wetter than normal due to a torrential all day downpour of some sort. Seems to be a repeat theme these last 3 months.

Depends on your locale. Here in the far east, it's been parched for months on end. I've mowed my lawn twice this year. Twice.

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I've cut my grass less than average and have only once had it produce a normal summer amount to go on my compost store. Usually it's brim full at the end of autumn but it's only half full this year so far. Today might help a bit. It's been raining heavily at times all morning and up to about 25mm now, but still going.

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Apart from the last 24 hours where 52mm has fallen, rainfall has been around average all through the Spring and Summer. I was cutting the lawn twice a week at one point. The last cut was 10 days ago, and it's ready for another cut.

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8 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

Apart from the last 24 hours where 52mm has fallen, rainfall has been around average all through the Spring and Summer. I was cutting the lawn twice a week at one point. The last cut was 10 days ago, and it's ready for another cut.

So it doesn't take spin then i take it.

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2:15pm, torrential rain.

Edit: 3:00pm  Severe flooding reported in parts of Liverpool.

Edited by Wildswimmer Pete

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Now I've got one....

image.thumb.png.06cc06fbe4cdbc02512696f8b5c953ae.png

On 23/09/2019 at 05:25, Turnedoutniceagain said:

Not quite an equinox, but close

image.png.b16e825fada29d8d15e6b438cdd8748f.png

 

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Another Autumn sign here in Leeds.

In the space of two weeks we have gone from some trees going rogue to the majority now having leaf turning and dropping.

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