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Storms and Convective Discussion - 25th June 2019 onwards

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6 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

I'm surprised there's no MO weather warning for tomorrow night, the past few thunderstorm events they've had warnings in place some 3/4 days before the event but here we are, a day before some potentially severe storms and they've not mentioned them..

Maybe the metoffice don't want to jinx it for us

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Posted (edited)

ICON shifts further east for tomorrow night

Screenshot_20190722-160220_Chrome.thumb.jpg.86cf7d23dfe63649864909ddde22f7ed.jpg

Edited by CreweCold

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Question: 

 

I saw a graphic saying the storms could be more east towards Sussex tomorrow/wed. 

Why is this? What model? It must be the only one showing this, right? All others show west country/dorset/northwards getting the action, and anywhere East of Southampton misses out. 

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Another Question:

 

what were the synoptics for the July 17/18 2014 (I think) MCS rampage across the south compared to tomorrow/wednesday? 

The storms were not forecast and it took everyone by surprise, and it turned out to be one of the most memorable storms I'll ever witness. 

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12Z UKV - No change. Pretty much identical to the charts I posted earlier.

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19 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

12Z UKV - No change. Pretty much identical to the charts I posted earlier.

pretty crap then for most of us

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Posted (edited)

GFS ups the ante. Looks like an MCS forming as the storms push N from Wales and the Midlands.

Screenshot_20190722-164858_Chrome.thumb.jpg.4b7b6835ce66590a6407490365c2617b.jpg

 

Edited by CreweCold

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Posted (edited)

One model I quite like to use, from past experience, with regards to convective weather is the French AROME model. 

A high res model, like the EURO4 and Hirlam models, this "should" have a better grasp on expected convective weather compared to the global models like the GFS etc. 

The 12z AROME model shows a noticeable cluster of convective activity initiating across SW England before heading NNE into South Wales, up the Marches and into the West Midlands and eventually into NW England:

aromehd-1-33-0.thumb.png.7387dedb736a774979d4ad6b87c68bdb.png

aromehd-1-34-0.thumb.png.980a081b7e2db78b85743467a3e3cafe.png

aromehd-1-35-0.thumb.png.d804515e786e1b7839ba0a4c0cb23d6b.png

aromehd-1-36-0.thumb.png.557f0f834e49f0d9491d2c1d5de7f424.png

 

Edited by AWD
Add one more chart

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FAX chart showing the developing upper warm front in the South - would've preferred it to be developing further South than that.

BRAEU_36.thumb.gif.e6e82ccbb2f4153cb452aeb9167fd1b0.gif

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Looks like Northern Wales,  NW England and large swathes of Scotland getting the best of it on the GFS

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10 minutes ago, AWD said:

One model I quite like to use, from past experience, with regards to convective weather is the French AROME model. 

A high res model, like the EURO4 and Hirlam models, this "should" have a better grasp on expected convective weather compared to the global models like the GFS etc. 

The 12z AROME model shows a noticeable cluster of convective activity initiating across SW England before heading NNE into South Wales, up the Marches and into the West Midlands and eventually into NW England:

aromehd-1-33-0.thumb.png.7387dedb736a774979d4ad6b87c68bdb.png

aromehd-1-34-0.thumb.png.980a081b7e2db78b85743467a3e3cafe.png

aromehd-1-35-0.thumb.png.d804515e786e1b7839ba0a4c0cb23d6b.png

aromehd-1-36-0.thumb.png.557f0f834e49f0d9491d2c1d5de7f424.png

 

Very similar to the UKV so I'm quite happy with that prognosis so far, GFS isn't a convective model & the lower resolution means it just sticks what looks like a massive band of rain across the entire country when reality it wont be anything like that. 

EURO4 was much further east with the main risk going through the Midlands, so still a lot of uncertainty. 

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Local forecast having none of the storms or rain. Storm wise it tends to on the money although I suspect it pick up on the rain overnight Tuesday soon.

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Even Ventusky is beginning to correct very slightly eastwards, with less activity in Ireland and the far west of wales as a result:

85C0B0AA-C653-4BC1-9D2D-A1143EBFA0E6.thumb.png.26773b1ff4c7e076c2bc1a7c4acb2896.png

C1B4E1F7-4FB6-45D9-AA33-53D76A56D6DA.thumb.png.13a3c712d9187329478bc2a59c02cbe1.png

Scotland still getting a good show by morning though:

C8D54640-5A28-4AF2-8BC3-A7194039573A.thumb.png.196a51cdf576930a23f758d86ec648c6.png

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Posted (edited)
8 minutes ago, ChezWeather said:

Euro4 much further east 

 

19072403_2206.gif

19072406_2206.gif

Way out on it's own though the Arpege,Hirlam and Arome don't go this far east as well as the UKV posted by Mapantz. That's a big shift compared to these other highly regarded hi-res models so i would wait and see what it's next run puts out compared to the other models, As they initiate storms over Bristol/South Wales before heading into Wales and the West Midlands and the NW. At least that's my take on it and we are barely a day and a half out now i doubt it will shift that much and that is a shift of 50-100miles. Plus i don't trust EURO 4 as much as i do the other models maybe it will meet in the middle but i'm unsure of that.

Edited by Summerstorm

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1 minute ago, Summerstorm said:

Way out on it's own though the Arpege,Hirlam and Arome don't go this far east as well as the UKV posted by Mapantz. That's a big shift compared to these other highly regarded hi-res models so i would wait and see what it's next run puts out compared to the other models. At least that's my take on it and we are barely a day and a half out now i doubt it will shift that much. 

Yeah EURO4 is by far the furthest east of all Hi-Res.

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10 minutes ago, ChezWeather said:

Euro4 much further east 

 

19072403_2206.gif

19072406_2206.gif

That's this mornings 6z run

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Okay, 12z EURO4 continues with the easterly track 

euro4.thumb.png.8e53851ca7910ae39a2b21839b57decd.pngUK2.thumb.png.b237925af52e386f7c7667908c3ade89.png

Any further east from the EURO4 and we'll be talking Kent clippers! At odds with other modelling for the time being though but does highlight the continued uncertainty.

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2 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

Okay, 12z EURO4 continues with the easterly track 

euro4.thumb.png.8e53851ca7910ae39a2b21839b57decd.pngUK2.thumb.png.b237925af52e386f7c7667908c3ade89.png

Any further east from the EURO4 and we'll be talking Kent clippers! At odds with other modelling for the time being though but does highlight the continued uncertainty.

Possibly a reason why we’ve yet to see any warnings issued by UKMO?

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Posted (edited)

Euro 4 is at odds with most models  it has two bands of rain  one around Tuesday night  taking a easterly track  the other wed  early hours  taking the rain   through the south west through west Midlands    still the track seems uncertain 

Edited by weirpig

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Quite liked the BBC forecast had the Storms quite central moving north over Dorset and developing far enough South.

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Posted (edited)
15 minutes ago, Rapodo said:

Quite liked the BBC forecast had the Storms quite central moving north over Dorset and developing far enough South.

Maybe...just maybe our turn has come, but as Mapantz commented on the fax chart the north bound front seems to get it's act together just off the south coast rather than being a fully developed ""Oh hell yeah" type front as it crosses us!

BUT, all to play for..

Edited by Dorsetbred

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I wouldn’t second guess the models at the moment. A few weeks ago you will recall there was an MCS modelled to run up S/C areas. Almost all models (if I remember correctly) even as little as 24 hours out had a similar idea, within 50-100 miles of each other. The (12z AROME) on the day itself said “don’t think so guv” and shifted it East into a Kent/Sussex event and was even at that short range on its own...it also turned out to be correct.

The BIG difference this time is that the swathe of instability is much broader than a few weeks ago so many more areas in with a shout - including poor me here in the southeast 😝 who up until now has not been expecting much if anything tomorrow. 

Lets all get just a little excited and hope it’s a widespread event 👍

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