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Storms and Convective Discussion - 25th June 2019 onwards

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Posted (edited)
15 minutes ago, Chris.R said:

OMG 3rd July 2001. What an amazing night that was. 

Never forgotten it, I talk about it with the same reverence that my Dad does about the July 1st/2nd 1968 event (dust falls, giant hail, total daytime darkness and  24 hours of thunder and lightning along the squall line which stretched from Devon up along the England/Wales border to Merseyside and across Northern England to Teeside)

Edited by Carl46Wrexham

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Looking at the metcheck it seems that the east is the best place to be in the long term, your thoughts?
image.thumb.png.5ba6df1c7c3eee9ccbc7659144532df6.png

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Best thing about these storms are that they come at the perfect time between 9pm and 3am!!especially if you like a night time show like me!!

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Latest UKV has shunted things further West.

viewimage.thumb.png.59fd24f44600815c8b869a525a7e4f61.png  543556739_viewimage(1).thumb.png.0b634b70d11320bab1df40c89f3e3dd1.png 806170109_viewimage(2).thumb.png.a4576bdd6f40e74876dbe51b8d68eced.png 

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52 minutes ago, Karl83 said:

Think I'm just going to sit tight in Bristol and see how the night pans out. Will definitely chase if required.

I had a flat on Dundry hill many years ago   ,about 700 ft amsl ,great views for storms .think we need to wait till tomorrow for details  ,but some corkers very likely for many. I cant see any warnings out yet,  but expecting some later today ,cheers all   .

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9 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

Latest UKV has shunted things further West.

viewimage.thumb.png.59fd24f44600815c8b869a525a7e4f61.png  543556739_viewimage(1).thumb.png.0b634b70d11320bab1df40c89f3e3dd1.png 806170109_viewimage(2).thumb.png.a4576bdd6f40e74876dbe51b8d68eced.png 

Dam These storms,when i want them to move west they go east and when  i want them to go east they go west.it like they just go  either side of me here.unbelievable.

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Any reason why the NetWeather Short Range model is showing the main storms to the west of wales up through into Scotland? 

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Based on current guidance..

1273761354_Screenshot2019-07-22at13_25_04.thumb.png.88516e94f9967a857d0902e7b9f19697.png

Storms initiating across South-West England giving torrential rain, thunder, lightning etc but as the storms move north they're likely to become increasingly elevated, moderate shear with the theta-ew plume destabalising further the highest risk of severe storms/MCS/possible tornadic activity looks to be across N Wales, NW Eng and up into E Scotland later in the night. 

Green area covers for likely eastwards expansion of the storms, less likely to have severe characteristics but torrential rain, gusty winds and semi-frequent lightning still a possibility. 

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33 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

Latest UKV has shunted things further West.

viewimage.thumb.png.59fd24f44600815c8b869a525a7e4f61.png  543556739_viewimage(1).thumb.png.0b634b70d11320bab1df40c89f3e3dd1.png 806170109_viewimage(2).thumb.png.a4576bdd6f40e74876dbe51b8d68eced.png 

fabulous. Apologies to those further east - my fault for booking the day off.

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4 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

Based on current guidance..

1273761354_Screenshot2019-07-22at13_25_04.thumb.png.88516e94f9967a857d0902e7b9f19697.png

Storms initiating across South-West England giving torrential rain, thunder, lightning etc but as the storms move north they're likely to become increasingly elevated, moderate shear with the theta-ew plume destabalising further the highest risk of severe storms/MCS/possible tornadic activity looks to be across N Wales, NW Eng and up into E Scotland later in the night. 

Green area covers for likely eastwards expansion of the storms, less likely to have severe characteristics but torrential rain, gusty winds and semi-frequent lightning still a possibility. 

If this was next week I'd be in the red area : P

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10 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

Based on current guidance..

1273761354_Screenshot2019-07-22at13_25_04.thumb.png.88516e94f9967a857d0902e7b9f19697.png

Storms initiating across South-West England giving torrential rain, thunder, lightning etc but as the storms move north they're likely to become increasingly elevated, moderate shear with the theta-ew plume destabalising further the highest risk of severe storms/MCS/possible tornadic activity looks to be across N Wales, NW Eng and up into E Scotland later in the night. 

Green area covers for likely eastwards expansion of the storms, less likely to have severe characteristics but torrential rain, gusty winds and semi-frequent lightning still a possibility. 

I sure hope this is correct 👍

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1 minute ago, Buddiefan said:

I sure hope this is correct 👍

I think somewhere between this and the earlier prediction - wales will be the zone for the strongest cell activity

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20 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

Based on current guidance..

1273761354_Screenshot2019-07-22at13_25_04.thumb.png.88516e94f9967a857d0902e7b9f19697.png

Storms initiating across South-West England giving torrential rain, thunder, lightning etc but as the storms move north they're likely to become increasingly elevated, moderate shear with the theta-ew plume destabalising further the highest risk of severe storms/MCS/possible tornadic activity looks to be across N Wales, NW Eng and up into E Scotland later in the night. 

Green area covers for likely eastwards expansion of the storms, less likely to have severe characteristics but torrential rain, gusty winds and semi-frequent lightning still a possibility. 

Is this potential tonight? 

 

Thanks

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Just now, mountain shadow said:

Is this potential tonight? 

 

Thanks

Sorry should have been clearer - This is for tomorrow evening through into Wednesday morning

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7 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

Sorry should have been clearer - This is for tomorrow evening through into Wednesday morning

deep joy for my early morning flight to Dusseldorf on Wednesday...🙄

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Posted (edited)
56 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

Based on current guidance..

1273761354_Screenshot2019-07-22at13_25_04.thumb.png.88516e94f9967a857d0902e7b9f19697.png

Storms initiating across South-West England giving torrential rain, thunder, lightning etc but as the storms move north they're likely to become increasingly elevated, moderate shear with the theta-ew plume destabalising further the highest risk of severe storms/MCS/possible tornadic activity looks to be across N Wales, NW Eng and up into E Scotland later in the night. 

Green area covers for likely eastwards expansion of the storms, less likely to have severe characteristics but torrential rain, gusty winds and semi-frequent lightning still a possibility. 

The absolute dream forecast for me there - the High MCS storms/possible tornado writing is right above my house. 😂

Thats a few forecasts now mentioning quite an event for us up here in the early hours - if this comes off it will be up there with my all time great! (May 2006)

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/scotland/glasgow_and_west/4974858.stm

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/in_pictures/4974998.stm

55F0EB28-68E0-405D-BCEF-B3C9EA0EA0A0.thumb.png.9844729eb0aaa4a45a3c7ae585fe697b.png

Edited by Mr Frost

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Ndc Ozzie said:

Dam These storms,when i want them to move west they go east and when  i want them to go east they go west.it like they just go  either side of me here.unbelievable.

Based on past experiences, if there’s any shift, it’s always an eastward one. Better to keep on having westward corrections, then at least you still have a much better chance to be in the game! As if anything, you are importing better ingredients, and more buoyant air from the S/SE. 2014 17th July had a 200 mile shift east as the situation unfolded. Many storms that night happened in areas that weren’t forecasted to have any at all. 

Earlier on this year, there was supposed to be storms from the IOW to Lincs, but ended up being only a Kent clipper. 

Edited by East_England_Stormchaser91

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2 minutes ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

Based on past experiences, if there’s any shift, it’s always an eastward one. Better to keep on having westward corrections, then at least you still have a much better chance to be in the game! As if anything, you are importing better ingredients, and more buoyant air from the S/SE. 2014 17th July had a 200 mile shift east as the situation unfolded. Many storms that night happened in areas that weren’t forecasted to have any at all. 

Earlier on this year, there was supposed to be storms from the IOW to Lincs, but ended up being only a Kent clipper. 

I can't see there being an eastwards shift this time...I mean I'd love one but it's shifting west with every run. The Midlands look close to being out of the game.

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I'm not too fussed with the westwards corrections here. I'd happily have a decent view of a nighttime thunderstorm the other side of the Pennines if I can go and get to a nice viewpoint looking west.

If we cop a storm here, all the better 😄 

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On 20/07/2019 at 17:06, Mapantz said:

UKV, strangely, shows it all dying out as it leaves the Midlands. I expect it'll all go up through the Irish sea and give @Convective a good seeing to.

 

1 hour ago, Met4Cast said:

Based on current guidance..

1273761354_Screenshot2019-07-22at13_25_04.thumb.png.88516e94f9967a857d0902e7b9f19697.png

Storms initiating across South-West England giving torrential rain, thunder, lightning etc but as the storms move north they're likely to become increasingly elevated, moderate shear with the theta-ew plume destabalising further the highest risk of severe storms/MCS/possible tornadic activity looks to be across N Wales, NW Eng and up into E Scotland later in the night. 

Green area covers for likely eastwards expansion of the storms, less likely to have severe characteristics but torrential rain, gusty winds and semi-frequent lightning still a possibility. 

Looks like we’re still on for something good around these parts. Keeping a close eye on the charts but certainly promising at this range.

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Posted (edited)

Has everyone forgotten it’s still about 32 hours out?

Anything could happen. Don’t discount an eastward or southward shift.

Edited by Flash bang flash bang etc

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9 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

Has everyone forgotten it’s still about 32 hours out?

Anything could happen. Don’t discount an eastward or southward shift.

Or a Kent clipper 😉 jks lol

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I will be very angry if Scotland gets all the storms yet again, as I haven't seen a storm in 3 years and counting. They seem to have had loads already reading around the convective threads in the last few months.

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27 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

Has everyone forgotten it’s still about 32 hours out?

Anything could happen. Don’t discount an eastward or southward shift.

It’s the exciting build up, thrill of the chase then the big bust when we all get thundery showers and watch on the radar as the storms then move out to sea and explode. 😂

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I'm surprised there's no MO weather warning for tomorrow night, the past few thunderstorm events they've had warnings in place some 3/4 days before the event but here we are, a day before some potentially severe storms and they've not mentioned them..

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