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Supacell

Storms and Convective Discussion - 25th June 2019 onwards

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Looking at Ventusky and I’m a bit baffled with their interpretation - showing the risk in the far west and almost non-existent before well into the second part of the night:

2CA6AC74-0D18-4A06-8E94-ECC1759EF1A6.thumb.png.85646a041812f57dbbde71c25a29db98.png

DBAB45E2-7784-4E17-B07F-A0E09637EA9F.thumb.png.f26106f9baf84d538090c8f78a952d3f.png

(Please note that the frame interval of this map is 3 hours and I don’t think this is at all reliable at this point)

As a wildcard it’s worth noting that the Google forecast for Surrey is for nothing more than patchy cloud - so a downgrade from them (as usual) and suggests that tuesdays event will retain a westerly bias.

Edited by Flash bang flash bang etc

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6 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Anything that occurs on Tuesday night looks elevated. Therefore I'd imagine lightning may be visible from a fairly wide area, potentially.

Unless we end up with a kent clipper 😂

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1 minute ago, TomW said:

Unless we end up with a kent clipper 😂

As likely as a sausage at a vegan bbq - but anything can and will happen 😜

Edited by Flash bang flash bang etc

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1 minute ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

As likely as a sausage at a vegan bbq - but anything can and will happen 😜

Vegan sausage 😂

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Nothing to post beyond that, as the run stops. It only goes out further on the 03Z.

93584684_viewimage(3).thumb.png.a95bf19383a90d94fcad53a1272a5cf8.png

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Certainly have a lot of interest going on Tuesday, managed to book it off work so will probably mean it wont happen now as thats just my luck 

Anyways on a serious note, Elevated showers or storms I reckon would start firing early Evening South of the Channel and then further more to develop Mid channel giving a good chance anywhere along the South and West. Then the risk moving further East as the Night goes on, that's the vibe i'm getting with these current charts.

Fingers crossed 

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Very convective as usual here in Orlando. Some storms in SE Florida are coming my way.

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To me, at this point, it looks like Tuesday night could be more noteworthy for prolific elevated lightning than rainfall for many. Rainfall seems to be suggested as being an issue further N.

Could be a real light show for some.

Edited by CreweCold

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waiting for a thunderstorm..while dying of humidity .. sums up Tuesday and Wednesday I think.

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Dying of the heat and getting no storms is standard Beddy fare. I shall be therefore dancing in the garden under the sprinkler bashing the lid of a bin very loudly with a stick. 

Edited by Dami

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9 minutes ago, Mitch perrott said:

what do you think i would get where i live, anything?

Well I don't want to count any chickens this far in advance because the form for storms here is patchy at best. However, as things stand this looks to be more of a classic 90s destabilisation event, whereby the core of the plume destabilises on its western edge. The SE looks to be within the core of the plume at that point which ultimately means that the SE area remains dry at that point. 

Destabilisation looks to occur from SW England, running up through the Marches/west Midlands, NW England and then Scotland. However, there will likely be some fluctuations to this as we get closer to Tues night- hence I'm counting no chickens!

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We all know deep down it will correct so Far East it will be a Kent clipper 🤣

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2 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Well I don't want to count any chickens this far in advance because the form for storms here is patchy at best. However, as things stand this looks to be more of a classic 90s destabilisation event, whereby the core of the plume destabilises on its western edge. The SE looks to be within the core of the plume at that point which ultimately means that the SE area remains dry at that point. 

Destabilisation looks to occur from SW England, running up through the Marches/west Midlands, NW England and then Scotland. However, there will likely be some fluctuations to this as we get closer to Tues night- hence I'm counting no chickens!

Succinctly put @CreweCold!

Looking increasingly like El Brumo (2012) whereby the west/midlands/north get clobbered by awesome storms and us in the SE melt with sweat and grow fungus under our armpits 😂

Nuances are changing by the hour, latest being we could see 34/35C by Thursday. Where any instability sits through this time as ever will be interesting, but totally agree western edge of any instability is the best place to be 👍

Edited by Harry

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5 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Well I don't want to count any chickens this far in advance because the form for storms here is patchy at best. However, as things stand this looks to be more of a classic 90s destabilisation event, whereby the core of the plume destabilises on its western edge. The SE looks to be within the core of the plume at that point which ultimately means that the SE area remains dry at that point. 

Destabilisation looks to occur from SW England, running up through the Marches/west Midlands, NW England and then Scotland. However, there will likely be some fluctuations to this as we get closer to Tues night- hence I'm counting no chickens!

ah well sounds like a shame for me, however if the wind changes then could move easternly like most of them have done, i have faith that the storm system is rather wide, perhaps if the storm develops enough the whole southcoast could be covered at the same time if the storm has enough energy and size, but i still have not given up as its too early to assume where and when the storm will hit, thankyou for your input!

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Patiently waiting for the 15Z UKV.. as the 12Z had moved things slightly further East, in to my territory. Pray for pantz 🙏

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16 minutes ago, Dami said:

Dying of the heat and getting no storms is standard Beddy fare. I shall be therefore dancing in the garden under the sprinkler bashing the lid of a bin very loudly with a stick. 

You should try Britain’s got talent, reckon people would like that 😄

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Just now, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

You should try Britain’s got talent, reckon people would like that 😄

Simon Cowell: Awful

The Rest: Amazing. 🌩️

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5 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

Patiently waiting for the 15Z UKV.. as the 12Z had moved things slightly further East, in to my territory. Pray for pantz 🙏

Even if the core of the system doesn't pass overhead, I think it'll be one of those times where lightning can be seen 30 to perhaps 50 miles away. 

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