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Storms and Convective Discussion - 25th June 2019 onwards

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15 minutes ago, TJS1998Tom said:

I've always wondered why Lincolnshire seems to be one of the best places for home growns compared to a lot of places 

Whenever the UK has a chance of seeing storms in the day, there is most likely deeper convection over in Lincolnshire. I don't even know why.

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53 minutes ago, zmstorm said:

Whenever the UK has a chance of seeing storms in the day, there is most likely deeper convection over in Lincolnshire. I don't even know why.

I wonder if its due to storms firing further south and having a NE motion (generally) over a longish land-track which gives them time to mature by the time they reach Lincolnshire.

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Interesting satellite image right now:

1.Large area of convective looking cloud.

2.Vortex over North Sea that seems to be rotating, does anyone know what it is? Is it an MCV?

3. (Bad Drawing), (Severe?) thunderstorm over north-east Scotland with overshooting top.

image.thumb.png.2e12c599a4813c14972b695aca0b8828.png

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Big CB going up now in Edinburgh , very muggy - looks ominous to the south

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1 hour ago, TJS1998Tom said:

I've always wondered why Lincolnshire seems to be one of the best places for home growns compared to a lot of places 

As far as I can work out it’s to do with the ‘usual’ track of low pressure vs the ‘usual’ jet pattern and due to the track of land that the low passes across when conditions are conducive.

Usually storms will get going around Gloucester / Bristol areas and then have a fairly storm-friendly route of open ground to build over before reaching the NE coast around lincs and the tip of EA.

As Kipling quite accurately noted, Kings Lynn is at the top of this diagonal track and so there and surrounding areas benefit from the perfect meeting point of atmospheric conditions on a more-regular-than-average cycle.

It just seems to be the sweet spot for anything moving eastward, and I guess they have the odd lucky moment, too.

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54 minutes ago, MetWeather said:

Interesting satellite image right now:

1.Large area of convective looking cloud.

2.Vortex over North Sea that seems to be rotating, does anyone know what it is? Is it an MCV?

3. (Bad Drawing), (Severe?) thunderstorm over north-east Scotland with overshooting top.

image.thumb.png.2e12c599a4813c14972b695aca0b8828.png

Not quite a thunderstorm yet over Scotland.

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1 hour ago, MetWeather said:

Really recommend lightningwizard.com, it has great charts much better than netweather extra for FREE!

 

Been using it on & off for many years. However, I disagree with it being better than Netweather's charts. It's only dedicated to convective weather and not much else. Also, Netweather works. 

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It's been consistently dark and stormy looking to the east of Brum for the past few hours. It'd be nice if we were to get something, even some rain, but I'm not holding my breath!

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Some beefy showers developing west of Norwich.

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Day 2 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Wed 17 Jul 2019 - 05:59 UTC Thu 18 Jul 2019

ISSUED 20:09 UTC Tue 16 Jul 2019

ISSUED BY: Dan

An isolated heavy shower is possible over East Anglia / E Midlands during Wednesday afternoon / early evening - but limited cloud depth and weak shear suggests the risk of lightning is rather low.

Remnants of embedded elevated convection may approach SW Ireland on Wednesday morning, but weakening with time. A shallow moist zone will evolve over Ireland during the afternoon / early evening, as a marked mid-level dry intrusion overspreads residual moist low-levels. Some reasonable shear will exist, and it seems plausible elements of line convection could develop and spread eastwards. Depth of convection will likely be too shallow for any lightning, the risk considered sub-5% and so no threat levels have been issued.

During the early hours of Thursday, scattered showers will begin to affect coastal parts of W / NW Ireland and W Scotland, as the Atlantic upper trough approaches from the west. A few isolated lightning strikes may be possible.

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2019-07-17

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Did I ever mention that I possess (as of now) 2 hand written weather journals...? Essentially I have hand written every noteworthy meteorological event that I have ever witnessed, which spans back to the cold spell of 2010, and is currently up to the tremendously insane June 18-19th 2019 t-storm event. I may share a couple more pages. I have plan to do this until the day I pass away, and perhaps it’ll prove useful to Research regarding the UK’s weather patterns.

38B8195A-269D-4BFB-A629-1AC2A966394E.jpeg

Edited by LightningLover

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35 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

Friday night through to Saturday looking better with every passing day 😃

Sat from 1pm-7pm here and increasing chances from early next week when i am on afters🙄

 

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Okay scratch the last post. This is more like it. If these were to be storms Friday night could be an interesting one. Model watching for the next few days should be interesting. Not too much in terms of Cape though 

Screenshot_20190717-050930.png

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9 hours ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

Friday night through to Saturday looking better with every passing day 😃

Not Just Friday Night. Look at Saturday. Showers/ T-Storms Developing?

image.thumb.png.ece61eba2a32da1b7dabb2ab4bf0427a.png

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5 hours ago, TJS1998Tom said:

Okay scratch the last post. This is more like it. If these were to be storms Friday night could be an interesting one. Model watching for the next few days should be interesting. Not too much in terms of Cape though 

Screenshot_20190717-050930.png

It’s overnight so maybe the MUCAPE values will be higher?

Either way I think it could be embedded thundery activity within a larger mass of rain - but still, better than nothing 🤷‍♂️ 

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i've been hoping for storms for so long, just my luck that when there is finally some storms likely its at an inconvenient time, not too sure what the procedure for thunderstorms is for riat air displays but i doubt its ideal.

 

friday storms and a clear sky during the display on saturday for fairford is what im hoping for but now i don't want a storm i guarantee there will be thunderstorms on saturday.

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2 hours ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

It’s overnight so maybe the MUCAPE values will be higher?

Either way I think it could be embedded thundery activity within a larger mass of rain - but still, better than nothing 🤷‍♂️ 

Yeah it's probably thundery rain at best but maybe elevated lightning? Who knows 

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3 minutes ago, TJS1998Tom said:

Yeah it's probably thundery rain at best but maybe elevated lightning? Who knows 

Time is on our side - still 48 hours to chop and change for the better - at the moment (based on a quick look at one output) it looks like the M4 northwards into England for a good deal of the thundery stuff and a clipper over extreme Kent.

I have zero confidence that this will be what happens, tho 😅

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