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Storms and Convective Discussion - 25th June 2019 onwards

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Why is that when strong thunderstorms that develop over eastern Ireland that are on a easterly trajectory get killed off in the Irish sea before they reach North Wales and NW England , 

yet when storms on a similar easterly trajectory develop in eastern England, they pep up as move into the north sea and go crazy ,  noticed this many times , bizarre ,   

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, IanR said:

Why is that when strong thunderstorms that develop over eastern Ireland that are on a easterly trajectory get killed off in the Irish sea before they reach North Wales and NW England , 

yet when storms on a similar easterly trajectory develop in eastern England, they pep up as move into the north sea and go crazy ,  noticed this many times , bizarre ,   

Is it to do with them being elevated? Whereas those leaving Ireland are usually SB?

Edited by Buddiefan

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2 hours ago, Buddiefan said:

Is it to do with them being elevated? Whereas those leaving Ireland are usually SB?

Exactly that. 

Usually in a plume event, storms get their energy from the EML (Elevated Mixed Layer) which contains mixed layer cape often into the 1000’s j/KG. This tends to be unaffected by surface conditions. Most recently, we saw elevated storms continue on way into open Atlantic water from the bay of biscay. Surface based storms without a plume above simply haven’t got the energy to survive without diurnal heating, as the energy supplying the updraft is removed. With a plume, the updraft can continue to be fed by the mixed layer above, if surface energy is removed and there is sufficient wind shear. 

Hope this helps 👍

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Day 2 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Thu 11 Jul 2019 - 05:59 UTC Fri 12 Jul 2019

ISSUED 19:45 UTC Wed 10 Jul 2019

ISSUED BY: Dan

A broad west/northwesterly flow covers the British Isles on Thursday, with an upper low located near the Hebrides. Relatively cool air aloft will overspread a broad and notably moist warm sector, with surface dewpoints of 14-17C expected widely. Assuming sufficient cloud breaks allow reasonable surface heating of this airmass, then up to 1,000 J/kg CAPE is possible across central / eastern / northern Britain.

A mid/upper-level dry intrusion will spread gradually eastwards during the day, the leading edge combined with areas of low-level convergence and orographic forcing providing the focus for scattered showers and a few thunderstorms - initially over the high ground of Scotland from noon onwards, but also over areas gradually farther south as the afternoon / evening progresses.

Across Scotland, weak shear will result in slow-moving "pulse type" convection, leading to the risk of surface water flooding - here though a greater chance of a few funnel clouds will exist. The environment farther south, particularly over E Midlands / East Anglia, will benefit from marginally better shear but some uncertainty exists over the potential for a couple of capping inversions, which may serve to inhibit cloud depth somewhat. If a few scattered thunderstorms can develop here, more likely during the evening hours, then hail up to 1.5cm in diameter would be possible.

Showers/storms will slowly fade during Thursday evening, but could persist over parts of East Anglia until the early hours of Friday given only a slow cooling of the boundary layer.

NOTE: we have issued a SLGT, which suggests a 30-45% chance of lightning within a 25 mile radius of a given point. There will undoubtedly be many areas within the SLGT that remain void of lightning.

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2019-07-11

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So local forecast is showing showers in early hours with risk of thunder, guessing at best it's just likely to be a few rumbles with a better chance late afternoon tomorrow?

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Day 2 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Fri 12 Jul 2019 - 05:59 UTC Sat 13 Jul 2019

ISSUED 20:34 UTC Wed 10 Jul 2019

ISSUED BY: Dan

An upper low will slowly retreat from the southern North Sea to Germany on Friday, with a trough axis extending across northern Britain. Cool air aloft atop residual low-level moisture (dewpoints 13-15C) will steepen lapse rates and yield 300-500 J/kg CAPE in response to diurnal heating. Low-level convergence will likely aid the development of a few well-scattered showers and one or two thunderstorms by Friday afternoon / early evening, before decaying later in the evening as nocturnal cooling of the boundary layer commences.

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2019-07-12

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Our skies atm looks like something is building to my North. Got some sun around 

15628447556741640036018261772117.jpg

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Some cells popping up, could develop into storms later on?

image.thumb.png.523f79c913bfb7b1fb771682d3d0092b.png

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I'm just outside the yellow warning zone 😭

Also just been some lightning strikes in Norfolk when typing this.

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Seems like a line of scattered storms is forming from Liverpool to Skegness, with the cell to the east of Lincoln being most active. Was hoping the storms would be more widespread though, its ended up being a sunny day in Hull today.

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Posted (edited)

If only the cell east of Lincoln was a little more west. Still very warm here 

 

Edited by TJS1998Tom

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Posted (edited)
1 minute ago, TJS1998Tom said:

If only it was a little more west. Still very warm here 

Screenshot_20190711-172740.png

Can you hear any thunder or can you see the storm?

Edited by zmstorm

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1 minute ago, zmstorm said:

Can you hear any thunder or can you see the storm?

Too far away sadly its pretty dark to my east though 

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Thunder audiable here, should hopefully be moving over and across in the next 15 mins.

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2 minutes ago, TJS1998Tom said:

Too far away sadly its pretty dark to my east though 

There is another storm though that's developed to the NW of you, that could hit you if it keeps on growing.

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Just now, zmstorm said:

There is another storm though that's developed to the NW of you, that could hit you if it keeps on growing.

Hopefully, usually storms always form around us and storm shield prevents a direct hit lol. Got a few hours yet so who knows

image.thumb.png.2bfd7febd329df4c1402d76647b2263d.png

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Starting to pick up now with these cells,wonder if more will develop now it's got started

image.png

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