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Storms and Convective Discussion - 25th June 2019 onwards

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I wwould just like to congratulate the weather expert who tweeted yesterday early afternoon that the storms originating around Rouen would NOT cross the channel and all the storms we would see would be home grown ones.

I guess he will be taking his Summer holidays for a week or two.😁

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Posted (edited)
14 minutes ago, matty40s said:

I wwould just like to congratulate the weather expert who tweeted yesterday early afternoon that the storms originating around Rouen would NOT cross the channel and all the storms we would see would be home grown ones.

I guess he will be taking his Summer holidays for a week or two.😁

Quite a few well-respected posters and forecasters saw those storms as shallow surface-based convective cells which would do little to affect our EML plume.

In theory they were, but within plumes there are always complicated processes which trip up even the most experienced ppl.

Dont get me wrong I’m not necessarily saying it’s good or OK - we’ve had several disasterously forecast storms already this year - even Tuesday’s spectacle went a little off-plan.

I worry that it will affect people’s confidence in the forecasts - which are essentially measurements of risk. If people don’t take these seriously it could be very problematic.

I hope at least these last few mishandlings of the data available will bring about new discoveries and techniques which will help us understand better these more complex synoptic processes - and more importantly how our changing climate might change they way our weather actually works.

I’ll be carefully analysing the forecasts when the next plume comes along, believe me 🕵🏼‍♂️

Edited by Flash bang flash bang etc

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, matty40s said:

I wwould just like to congratulate the weather expert who tweeted yesterday early afternoon that the storms originating around Rouen would NOT cross the channel and all the storms we would see would be home grown ones.

I guess he will be taking his Summer holidays for a week or two.😁

Reminded me a lot of July 2014. Very similar occurrences with the storms further east on the first round (Tues night), then the odd storm here and there during the next day, followed by almost a carbon copy MCS forming over NE France, looking like it would make it into London, but instead veered N/NE as it exited into the channel, with a shelf cloud in Kent, and then skirted up the east coast, with remnants heading back NNW ish. Both very decent plumes, but could’ve served more people in terms of storm location. 

As ever, sometimes you’ve got to do the chasing. As the storms will go wherever they are steered and whatever laws of meteorology they sometimes seem to defy!! 

Edited by East_England_Stormchaser91

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Quick snippet of the video we took at Clacton beach last night at 19.20 ish. Incoming mid level cell seemed to propagate forwards and dropped a ton of rain and hail in the form of a microburst and this is the resulting wind. The object flying right to left at the end was a wooden deck chair which was fairly heavy.

https://youtu.be/0JUQ5Ss4S0c

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Can see a few beefy towers in the far distance to the East! Must be that ex Dutch storm and other cells popping up over the N Sea. Still actually producing sferics! Will it make it? Norfolk could be in for a little show again! 

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19 minutes ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

Can see a few beefy towers in the far distance to the East! Must be that ex Dutch storm and other cells popping up over the N Sea. Still actually producing sferics! Will it make it? Norfolk could be in for a little show again! 

Wonder if we'll see anything thundery tonight with the heavy rain perhaps 

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42 minutes ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

Can see a few beefy towers in the far distance to the East! Must be that ex Dutch storm and other cells popping up over the N Sea. Still actually producing sferics! Will it make it? Norfolk could be in for a little show again! 

Still going across the North Sea it seems, on their current path they are probably heading to Scarborough or something like that...

Wouldn't surprise me if they suddenly stopped producing sferics as they got close to shore lol.

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25 minutes ago, TJS1998Tom said:

Wonder if we'll see anything thundery tonight with the heavy rain perhaps 

 

Just now, Quicksilver1989 said:

Still going across the North Sea it seems, on their current path they are probably heading to Scarborough or something like that...

Wouldn't surprise me if they suddenly stopped producing sferics as they got close to shore lol.

If it brushes north Norfolk, I should be able to see the flashes just about. A very interesting one this. It has travelled a heck of a distance all the way from Cologne! 

May drive towards Skegness if it shows signs of maintaining intensity! 

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3 minutes ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

 

If it brushes north Norfolk, I should be able to see the flashes just about. A very interesting one this. It has travelled a heck of a distance all the way from Cologne! 

May drive towards Skegness if it shows signs of maintaining intensity! 

May be able to see some distant flashes of lightning from there. Yup its quite the effort considering how far it has gone!, it seems to be taking a track similar to those storms to the east of the moors.

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Does anyone know if there was footage taken of the storm that tracked across northern England yesterday? I can hardly find any unfortunately.

 

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Day 2 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Sat 27 Jul 2019 - 05:59 UTC Sun 28 Jul 2019

ISSUED 20:47 UTC Fri 26 Jul 2019

ISSUED BY: Dan

Residual instability plume associated with the remains of an EML (elevated mixed layer) will continue to sit to the east of a cold front, which itself will become quasi-stationary across the British Isles on Saturday. Semi-random pulses of elevated convection, and hence thunderstorms, will continue to develop at various times through this forecast period - a blend of various model guidance would suggest the risk is highest during Saturday morning, and gradually decreasing thereafter as the EML shrinks and profiles moisten, ultimately reducing the available instability.

There will also be a messy mixture of frontal and convective precipitation, with any lightning activity most likely on the eastern side of any precipitation. Main threat will be prolonged heavy downpours, with elements of shower training bringing a significant risk of locally high rainfall totals and hence flash flooding. 

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2019-07-27

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3 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

You can basically say bye bye to any convective potential until maybe possibly the end of the month

So midweek then? I'd imagine there will be storms embedded in the rain up the Eastern side Tomorrow.

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49 minutes ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

http://visitsheringham.co.uk/webcam/

A decent view of that storm when the cam faces to the right! Quite a decent strike rate, and picking the sferics up on radio here! 

Bless it, still going strong and barely moving. Maybe it's moved in permanently to Area 51? A sort of thundery N Sea Stromboli?

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1 hour ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

http://visitsheringham.co.uk/webcam/

A decent view of that storm when the cam faces to the right! Quite a decent strike rate, and picking the sferics up on radio here! 

That’s a good cam. Is that Amsterdam I’m the far background? Looks proper clear 

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6 minutes ago, Lu. said:

That’s a good cam. Is that Amsterdam I’m the far background? Looks proper clear 

No, Amsterdam is to the east and is not visible from England 

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Posted (edited)
21 minutes ago, Norfolk Sheep said:

Bless it, still going strong and barely moving. Maybe it's moved in permanently to Area 51? A sort of thundery N Sea Stromboli?

It’s become Europe’s catatumbo this week i swear! The never ending lightning storms! 

 

Edited by East_England_Stormchaser91

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11 minutes ago, Lu. said:

That’s a good cam. Is that Amsterdam I’m the far background? Looks proper clear 

I think that’s the aircraft warning lights of the offshore wind farm Lu. 

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1 minute ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

I think that’s the aircraft warning lights of the offshore wind farm Lu. 

Ahh thank you. I literally took a quick look to where sheringham was to the lights out at see 😂 but thank you for clearing that up 

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Big flashes of lightning and thunder heard out to sea in Bridlington ⚡🌩️😍

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The edge of the front from Paris to the channel is definitely pepping up. Kent and Sussex could be treated once again. 

Heres the song of storm season 2019

Thundercloud on the edge of France; English Channel, it has no chance; All that CAPE, down the drain; Kent and Sussex score again. 

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Can see plenty shower clouds just off the coast up here and plenty of lightning from elevated storms.

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Great display of lightning east of my location,out to sea,lighting clouds up,looks like its heading north

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