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Supacell

Storms and Convective Discussion - 25th June 2019 onwards

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4 minutes ago, Mitch perrott said:

do you think the storm would affect me here in the very far south east?

 

I’d say there’s a bigger chance than last night to be fair from what I’m seeing. 

Best thing to do will be to await the detailed storm forecasts for tomorrow.

 

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4 minutes ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

A possibly very historical and exciting day to come tomorrow. 

You thinking of chasing tomorrow Supa? I am able to, but to be quite honest, I think I could be in the sweet spot! All eyes will be to the South, and I will be off the mark if I detect any possible misses to the W or the E, the East being more likely I would say. 

I can’t wait to analyse the inevitable forecasts come tomorrow morning. I will no doubt stand out in the rain just purely to cool down, given the predicted highs of tomorrow. The rain will probably actually feel warm! 

I am at work on Friday but it is a short day and so if things look good then I'll be out chasing. I will just fight through the tiredness with the help of a can of red bull on Friday morning.

4 minutes ago, kev f said:

Are these storms going to be breaking out late afternoon early evening in our neck of the woods? @Supacell

It is too early to be precise but we will certainly be under the hot plume with high CAPE building through the day. I reckon we have a decent chance of something from late afternoon onwards.

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15 minutes ago, Supacell said:

I am at work on Friday but it is a short day and so if things look good then I'll be out chasing. I will just fight through the tiredness with the help of a can of red bull on Friday morning.

It is too early to be precise but we will certainly be under the hot plume with high CAPE building through the day. I reckon we have a decent chance of something from late afternoon onwards.

Certainly the potential for some absolute pearlers. Supercells would not be out of the question that’s for sure. Then hopefully some elevated stuff into the night. 

Theres going to be tonnes of energy given the steady feed off the continent, and cooling, veering winds taking hold aloft. 

Expecting some huge cloudheights, and strong updrafts if it does go in orderly fashion. 

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Up till 4:30am last night from the amazing thundery event, had 3 rounds of storms here in Walsall, first one brought very strong winds on the leading edge along with frequent blinding flashes of lightning, Heavy rain and deep eerie, and sometimes loud thunder, the 2nd rounds was more lighting but not much rain and the 3rd brought frequent forked lighting across the sky with 1 CG, which it I think a few miles away, with torrential rain.

Not expecting anything today but there's some towering happening to the west of me.

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1 minute ago, ChezWeather said:

Euro4 midnight Friday 

 

19072600_2406.gif

That's a reasonable outcome I think even though the metoffice have warnings further west as far as stafford I think they are been overly cautious and the area there is more favored then again I could be dead wrong , only time will tell

 

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17 minutes ago, ChezWeather said:

Euro4 midnight Friday 

 

19072600_2406.gif

That'll just about to me nicely especislly if we see lightning from miles away like last night 

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Some night here (exhausted today) storms started just before 3am with a cell silently flashing away to my east then another cell developed to my south before the big storm at around 4:30 am, lightning caused a fire after striking a house in nearby Markinch https://www.thecourier.co.uk/fp/news/local/fife/941859/occupants-of-house-escape-injury-as-lightning-strike-sparks-blaze-in-fife-town/ 

 

 

not sure why here and Edinburgh have been hot spots possibly the firth of forth intensifying the storms somehow? and tomorrow COULD be explosive again.

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1 hour ago, Singularity said:

Nice captures @James1979 - that's one thing that was strangely lacking here last night; visible bolts of lightning. I only saw a few during the whole 90 mins of action, with the rest being veiled in some way. Made for a relatively poor filming experience and nothing for the slow-mo to feast upon.

@Flash bang flash bang etc (nice username), your theory seems sound to me; there did seem to be a lot of short-lived tower development with brief flurries of lightning activity as the updrafts punched into the cool air associated with the upper trough. The hail/rain was very fitful in nature here; from nothing to full fury in the blink of an eye and vice versa.

 

On reflection, now that the adrenaline has subsided and I've had a few hours sleep, the scarcity of lightning detail and booming thunder lowers the score to 6/10 for me. Strike rates were scarcely higher than  summer 2014's biggest events, and those had excellent lightning detail plus some truly thunderous, er, thunder!

Possibly, I was locally unlucky with an outflow layer of low cloud or something acting as a veil.

Thanks buddy, there were 2 rounds of storms here and I was filming until 4am for about 3 hours so had to be quite patient as the majority of lightning was not visible or out of view sadly! Also had to be patient as have waited about 2 years for a storm with more than a bolt or 2! Was one of the better ones I've seen and have my fix for now. Hopefully something a little sooner will happen. So pleased that so many got some action finally and feel for those that didnt. 

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Am I right in saying there's more cape in the forecast tomorrow evening/night? 

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Posted (edited)
18 minutes ago, BrickFielder said:

 

good post as always

Edited by Supacell
Removed long quote for purpose of those on mobile phones

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3 minutes ago, TJS1998Tom said:

Am I right in saying there's more cape in the forecast tomorrow evening/night? 

Yes, MUCAPE is very high on NMM. Even if it has overdone it somewhat, CAPE is still very high. With the temperatures and dewpoints forecast I expect this CAPE could actually be realised though.

1072542889_CAPE21z.thumb.png.06925cf7a77384b8206c906fb52a7137.png

One thing that stands out to me is how horrendously hot it will feel. A temperature of 36-37c with a dewpoint of 22c gives a feels like temperature of around 42-43c!!!

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skew0.415480878976272.thumb.png.c465c091f245bfa153d254052ef8d1bd.png

🎇

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3 minutes ago, Supacell said:

Yes, MUCAPE is very high on NMM. Even if it has overdone it somewhat, CAPE is still very high. With the temperatures and dewpoints forecast I expect this CAPE could actually be realised though.

1072542889_CAPE21z.thumb.png.06925cf7a77384b8206c906fb52a7137.png

One thing that stands out to me is how horrendously hot it will feel. A temperature of 36-37c with a dewpoint of 22c gives a feels like temperature of around 42-43c!!!

I could imagine any storms if they break out could be pretty spectacular then with there being enough heat and sun during the day. Should be interesting to see how hot temps get tomorrow 

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3 minutes ago, TJS1998Tom said:

I could imagine any storms if they break out could be pretty spectacular then with there being enough heat and sun during the day. Should be interesting to see how hot temps get tomorrow 

and moving eastwards too , so no shortage of energy there

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7 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

skew0.415480878976272.thumb.png.c465c091f245bfa153d254052ef8d1bd.png

🎇

Steep lapse rates there... lets hope the cap gets eroded! They are even better then the ones Knocker posted the other day for the SW. 

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13 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

 

To my relatively untrained eye, at the time of that chart (6pm), the temperature would need to reach 35c with a forecast dewpoint of 20c. May be a stretch for Belper as the forecast temperature is 34c. However, I expect the cap to weaken later in the day and dewpoints may get higher than 20c. It is going to be a watching the sky/radar kind of evening.

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I’d rate last nights storm a 6/10. Lots of cloud to cloud lightning but very little cloud to ground lighting observed. Very little in the way of thunder itself too. Passed through relatively quick too although it gave the ground a much needed shower as that lasted a for quite a while after the storm had passed over.  

Don’t know what to make out for tomorrow. Under a warning for thunderstorms although I suspect the main action will possibly be further east.

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I'm really pleased many of you got good results and I've enjoyed seeing your pictures and video. Thank you for posting them!

With luck I'll see some action tomorrow evening!

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Posted (edited)

Good news is that tomorrow looks like kicking off a few hours earlier which means most of us can see the storms then get some sleep..unlike last night. This was me hanging out the bedroom window at 3am holding my iPhone out 🤣 ......

 

 

Edited by Tim Bland

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