Model output discussion - first hot, thundery plume of the summer

[knocker]

As some rain is due this months figures so far certainly indicate it will be more than welcome

http://www.met.reading.ac.uk/~brugge/CURR.html

[Methuselah]

And, here are the GEFS 12Z ensembles: not surprisingly, the op now sits near the top of the bunch!

    

    

Ten days' straight at 25C+? Yes please!

[Mike Poole]

Quick comparison at T120:

ECM looks closer to UKMO this afternoon so far...

Edited July 17, 2019 by Mike Poole

[Frosty.]

Since the models now stretch as far as August 2nd I thought I would take a look...there are some decent signs on the extended GEFS 12z although I admit it's a silly timeframe but sometimes trends are picked up at such a range!!!

 

Edited July 17, 2019 by Jon Snow

[Captain Shortwave]

ECM and UKMO agree to day 6 again.

Shame they do not agree with their earlier operational output. Both pushing a front east later on Tuesday but both probably get close to 30c on Monday and 32/33c on Tuesday.

Of course at the 5/6 day range this could change.

Edited July 17, 2019 by Captain Shortwave

[Djdazzle]

Seems odd that they are both overkeen to push the front through. Experience suggests that it won’t be that quick.

[Cheshire Freeze]

1 minute ago, Djdazzle said:

Seems odd that they are both overkeen to push the front through. Experience suggests that it won’t be that quick.

History is littered with brief plume events. In fact, wasn't Tamara on here yesterday saying brief plume events followed by something fresher and possibly more unsettled (rinse and repeat) was the favoured outcome?

[SizzlingHeat]

ECM breaks heat by the end of Tuesday. 

[mb018538]

5 minutes ago, Captain Shortwave said:

ECM and UKMO agree to day 6 again.

Shame they do not agree with their earlier output. Both pushing a front east later on Tuesday but both probably get close to 30c on Monday and 32/33c on Tuesday.

Of course at the 5/6 day range this could change.

That’s not really the case - ECM produced a couple of op runs well outside the mean so people got their hopes up too much. There were still plenty of halfway house runs such as this evening, and some that swept everything away quickly. There hasn’t been a backtrack or downgrade, as it was never nailed on with cross model support. It will all change again on the 00z....i said yesterday it’s take 2-3 more days to have a clear picture, and that’s proving to be the case!

[Frosty.]

Well the Ecm 12z operational looks very progressive in shunting all that lovely heat away to the east..the mean later could look better though!!!

[Djdazzle]

1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

History is littered with brief plume events. In fact, wasn't Tamara on here yesterday saying brief plume events followed by something fresher and possibly more unsettled (rinse and repeat) was the favoured outcome?

True, although this looks less like a classic plume.

[Djdazzle]

1 minute ago, Jon Snow said:

Well the Ecm 12z operational looks very progressive in shunting all that lovely heat away to the east..the mean later could look better though!!!

Agreed, every op run recently has been an outlier. Looking like this will be continuing the pattern. It’s just far too progressive.

[Guest]

The GFS / ECM 12z switcharoo! You couldn’t make it up! 

[Mike Poole]

Once again the GFS legacy pulls out one of the better runs, here with the heat well in control at T192:

I still think there is sufficient uncertainty that we can't rule any of these evolutions out at the moment, more runs still needed.

Some excellent posts in here today, by the way!  Interesting times....

[Djdazzle]

2 minutes ago, Alderc said:

The GFS / ECM 12z switcharoo! You couldn’t make it up! 

Par for the course really! The scatter in the ensembles will produce wildly varying op runs.

[knocker]

The progression of the upper trough T120- 168 with a weak front crossing the country on Tuesday.As noted earlier the morning clusters had a lot of options on the table

[Frosty.]

This has a ways to go yet..some models say yes, others say no but it's not over until the fat lady sings!!!!!

What a shambles that Ecm run turned into...let's have the 0z instead!!

Edited July 17, 2019 by Jon Snow

[Methuselah]

12 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

History is littered with brief plume events. In fact, wasn't Tamara on here yesterday saying brief plume events followed by something fresher and possibly more unsettled (rinse and repeat) was the favoured outcome?

You're right of course, Crewe...There are good reasons why the old adage two fine days and a thunderstorm is so often used to describe the 'normal' pattern of British summers.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Looks like a massive amount of Shannon entropy in the models so far today... ECM up grades while gfs downgrades... Now gfs has upgraded while ecm has downgraded.... Ohhhhh the drama... Coranation Street got nothing on this!!! Hopefully a better mean from the ECM... 

[Captain Shortwave]

11 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

That’s not really the case - ECM produced a couple of op runs well outside the mean so people got their hopes up too much. There were still plenty of halfway house runs such as this evening, and some that swept everything away quickly. There hasn’t been a backtrack or downgrade, as it was never nailed on with cross model support. It will all change again on the 00z....i said yesterday it’s take 2-3 more days to have a clear picture, and that’s proving to be the case!

It's more an intrigue to see the two best performing operational seemingly take the same fork whilst at the same time the GFS goes for the kind of the solution the other two had been touting for the past 24 hours. 

Given the ensembles, the ECM idea of digging the trough south east into France looks a little suspect as the consensus is that heat remains over a good part of central Europe into week 2. Strangely the ECM takes the sort of idea that the GFS had previously offered, accept several days later. If we do lose the heat it will probably mean we return to a pattern we will see over the coming few days, fairly warm but mixed westerlies.

That probably means that the GFS evolution to day 7 is probably wrong if it is lagging in terms of solving the complexities earlier on in comparison to the Euros, however the ECM is against consensus into week 2 with the pattern over Europe. However a lot can change including the scope of the warm up next week.

[Dangerous55019]

Evening everyone. 
Here's what the CFS weekly anomalies charts are showing this evening...

Week one is pretty much the same as it was showing last night... With high pressure to our south and low(er) pressure to our north dragging up air from a south westerly direction... Certainly would feel quite muggy I would imagine. 
Week two, and there is a shift in that position of the high pressure that has been forecast to be anchored over us... This has now shifted slightly to the east and allowing hot air to be dragged up for a more southerly or south easterly direction! 

Week three and we have a complete change from the past two days! The high pressure is gone! ... Well ok, its no longer being shown, and we now have got an area of low pressure just of the east coast and over the North sea... I would imagine that this would fetch much cooler air in from a more northerly/north easterly direction. 
And week four looks to have low pressure (or a trough of some kind) anchored over us. 

So make of that what you will! I'd still say that the end of July is looking like our best bet for a burst of summer, before the first of the autumn storms arrive in August! 
But hey, I am just a mere amateur, and these are very low resolution charts from the CFS. 

[Singularity]

ECM suddenly has no digging south of a secondary low west of Europe, just when FV3 finally produced it and UKMO took it further than the previous run.

Do you ever feel like we’re being trolled by the models? 

I don’t know... having no dig south at all seems a bit too far in the progressive direction, but no doubt the 00z ECM was at the other end of the spectrum. Strange how often these last few days the op has hung out at the limits instead of sitting nicely near the mean.

At least the other, least pleasant breakdown method via he jet firing straight into Europe has gone walkies - hopefully that one won’t be back.

What ECM shows this evening is a bit mediocre after Tue but could be much worse.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

2 minutes ago, Singularity said:

ECM suddenly has no digging south of a secondary low west of Europe, just when FV3 finally produced it and UKMO took it further than the previous run.

Do you ever feel like we’re being trolled by the models? 

I don’t know... having no dig south at all seems a bit too far in the progressive direction, but no doubt the 00z ECM was at the other end of the spectrum. Strange how often these last few days the op has hung out at the limits instead of sitting nicely near the mean.

At least the other, least pleasant breakdown method via he jet firing straight into Europe has gone walkies - hopefully that one won’t be back.

What ECM shows this evening is a bit mediocre after Tue but could be much worse.

Yep, what you say about ECM rings true! And there is talk in some quarters of the customary NW/SE split devoloping after midweek and further a field. That's not gonna impress those further North... But the S/SE are going to be positively brimming. 

[Methuselah]

I don't know which model NW uses in generating its 14 local forecasts, but whichever one it is, it hasn't done too badly, this last few months; it even does quite a good job of estimating the effects of sea-breezes

Anywho, when I perused it a wee while back, it made me smile...14 days with nary a max below 22C, and temps of 27-29C next week!

Obviously, though, I cannae show any charts. But, when it's 29C here, only around ten miles from the East Coast, inland areas will be roasting...

[ANYWEATHER]

Evening , next week's weather is out to the jury, a forecasters nightmare, but reading between the lines  a warm up for next week but with some Heavy thundery downpours  before the Atlantic air moves in.....that's my thoughts  with a human brain rather than a computer. ....