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Model output discussion - first hot, thundery plume of the summer

Paul

By Paul
in Forecast Model Discussion

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Paul
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This thread = Models, models and more models
Please remember that this thread is for discussing the model output only. If you want to chat about the summer weather more generally, please use the Summer chat and moans thread.

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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted

Here she blows---stonker incoming! What could possibly go wrong?:oldgrin:

h850t850eu.png  h500slp.png

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted (edited)

The ukmo 12h certainly shows a dome of warm upper air covering the uk next monday, warmest further s / se but it's breezier further n / nw (windy even) and also more unsettled.

UW120-21.gif

UW144-21.gif

UW144-7.gif

Edited by Jon Snow
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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted

Is the 12Z screaming THUNDERSTORMS or is the 12Z screaming THUNDERSTORMS?:yahoo:

h850t850eu.png   h500slp.png:oldgrin:

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johnholmes Maestro

johnholmes

Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
Posted
3 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Is the 12Z screaming THUNDERSTORMS or is the 12Z screaming THUNDERSTORMS?:yahoo:

h850t850eu.png   h500slp.png:oldgrin:

Ah, more model screaming!

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Mike Poole Maestro

Mike Poole

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
Posted (edited)

OK, moving on to GFS and here we are at T180:

image.thumb.jpg.3c30aba11f64ce37a596f994ee92f8d6.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.2c6dbeb9f93b53fdfd3fb81890910480.jpg

Personally I don't buy this evolution.  The high heights into Scandi just don't seem to fit with the other models, I maybe wrong of course, but it is the FV3, there's something about it that doesn't inspire confidence, so I turn to the legacy GFS, here at T204:

image.thumb.jpg.1da806de3734893805e634d202326f24.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.8adf00c09b42dd1873488defe2e09825.jpg

This maybe closer to how the UKMO might evolve if it went further, and +18 C uppers into the south. Will be a hot run, this one, for sure...

Edited by Mike Poole
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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted (edited)

+15 850's are not to be sniffed at, next week could be very interesting as to whether it's just a glancing blow for the SE or more full on, and it's not far away, next Mon / Tues..or Wed!!!!

Edited by Jon Snow
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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted
4 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

Ah, more model screaming!

If it's good enough for plants, John?:oldgrin: https://science.howstuffworks.com/life/botany/plants-feel-pain.htm

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Mike Poole Maestro

Mike Poole

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
Posted

Uh oh, we're chasing record breaking territory again, here's GFS legacy at T276, looks like we're going to be glued to the models again over the next few days:

image.thumb.jpg.da9154921b84fe89d5345cfeff92f6cb.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.454c2f77272236e465a3e460299e68b3.jpg

 

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

GEM!  T180.

image.thumb.jpg.b6883320e67dc5f029c78ad8b14f1448.jpg

OMG the Gem 12z is screaming hot potential!!:yahoo:......+24 850's!!!:shok:

Castle Black may see a thaw next week!!!!!

Edited by Jon Snow
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Cheshire Freeze Maestro

Cheshire Freeze

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
Posted (edited)
14 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Uh oh, we're chasing record breaking territory again, here's GFS legacy at T276, looks like we're going to be glued to the models again over the next few days:

image.thumb.jpg.da9154921b84fe89d5345cfeff92f6cb.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.454c2f77272236e465a3e460299e68b3.jpg

 

Chasing record breaking 12 days out? No different to chasing those -15s at day 12 in winter! 

Potential for it to turn very warm next week but anything more than that is hyperbole and conjecture at this point.

Edited by CreweCold
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knocker Maestro

knocker

Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne
Posted (edited)

Given that the movement and orientation of the Upper trough in the Atlantic and the associated amplification of the subtropical high pressure is critical to the evolution next week then a quick comparison with the midnight run is quite illuminating I say no more

gfs-nhemi-z500_anom-3883200.thumb.png.53f095043f2698171f52c00d4166755b.png168.thumb.png.5795e25c1ebc13ff5996eedf83340495.png

gfs-nhemi-z500_anom-3969600.thumb.png.c6af84d40552ec872411962abd386418.png192.thumb.png.03f2be24a0d0bdff2cdf55434235d474.png

Edited by knocker
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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted (edited)

Whisper it, the GEFS 12z mean looks very tasty by next midweek, very warm widely and hot for the s / se!

21_174_850tmp.png

21_198_850tmp.png

21_216_850tmp.png

Edited by Jon Snow
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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted

Preety good support from the GEFS 12z for a hot spell developing next week..!!!

0_222_2mtmpmax.png

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19_222_2mtmpmax.png

20_222_2mtmpmax.png

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mb018538 Maestro

mb018538

Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
Posted

Pointless pinning hopes on individual runs at the moment - that Atlantic trough is causing all sorts of issues, as shown by the flip-flopping between hot/unsettled towards the end of next week. Probably still 2-3 days before we will know for sure.

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Mike Poole Maestro

Mike Poole

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Popular Post
Posted (edited)
30 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Chasing record breaking 12 days out? No different to chasing those -15s at day 12 in winter! 

Potential for it to turn very warm next week but anything more than that is hyperbole and conjecture at this point.

Thanks Crewe.  Feel a bit gutted actually.  Have made over 2000 posts in this thread on the misunderstanding that hyperbole and conjecture (backed up by model charts of course) were the staple diet of the thread!  

I don't think anyone has gone further than to suggest the possibility of an exceptional spell of weather.

Edited by Mike Poole
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Cheshire Freeze Maestro

Cheshire Freeze

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
Posted
5 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Thanks Crewe.  Feel a bit gutted actually.  Have made over 2000 posts in this thread on the misunderstanding that hyperbole and conjecture (backed up by model charts of course) were the staple diet of the thread!  

I read your reply and had to check that it wasn't the ramps and banter thread 

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted

I think the Gem 12z is the pick of the 12z's so far..oh and some of those GEFS 12z perturbations....nothing's in the bag of course but I wouldn't take any notice of anyone who says there's no grounds for peddling optimism as far as next week is concerned..and the Ecm 12z about to roll!!

hidingbehindcouch.png

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Guest

Guest

Posted
Posted

Again the GFS Ops run quickly shifts the heat, given the build up of heat on the near continent I think it’s unrealistic for 500mb heights to crash so rapidly during high summer. With that in mind I really don’t think heat would be in just for a day or two. If the mid level heights did capitulate that quickly it would be end of the world stuff stormwise assuming atmospheric dynamics engaged synchronously. 

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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted (edited)

Well chaps, all's okay on the GEFS 12Z until July 23rd (maybe 25th?) after that, however, model-mayhem sets in!:shok:

t850London.png    t2mLondon.png

prmslLondon.png    prcpLondon.png

Definitely not a day for detailed predictions, methinks---the model is simply screaming?!:oldgrin:

Edited by Ed Stone
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Fourty Point Three Degrees Seasoned

Fourty Point Three Degrees

Posted
  • Location: manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Summer
  • Location: manchester
Posted

There is too much flip flopping in the runs with an Atlantic trough at moment for any potential heat.  One model run its mid 30s blowtorch and the next its low to mid 20s.  It wont be until at least this weekend until more is nailed down thats for sure. But if I had to take a bet my money would be on all the heat being shifted up towards Netherlands and just skimming the SE just like its done on many occasions in the Summer.

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Mike Poole Maestro

Mike Poole

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
Posted (edited)

So we're out to T144 on ECM, here:

image.thumb.jpg.1407f942ff2bd5bf77dc3efd4bfb6478.jpg

I reckon this is slap bang in the middle of UKMO and GEM at same time:

image.thumb.jpg.92346f10493d47bb02df73c735a71bfd.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.1887993af4fee28038bfa81a1398ec50.jpg

850s:

image.thumb.jpg.bf5bc32c1f045e91c8d34e4fc80946d6.jpg

Interest building for a hot spell......ach there's that institutional hyperbole again...don't do it Mike!

Edited by Mike Poole
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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted (edited)

Looking at the Ecm 12z operational for early next week..at least it won't be cool!!!:shok: 

144_thickuk.png

144_mslp850.png

144_thick.png

168_thickuk.png

Edited by Jon Snow
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