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Paul

Model output discussion - first hot, thundery plume of the summer

Paul

This thread = Models, models and more models
Please remember that this thread is for discussing the model output only. If you want to chat about the summer weather more generally, please use the Summer chat and moans thread.

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4 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

GFS is forecasting a reamplifaction of tropical westerlies in the Pacific which may be why the GEFS are suggesting FI joy.

 

Thanks for the heads up SB 🙂

Hopefully backed up by Euro as the EC mean is also warming up nicely longer term.

Can we buck the trend of poor Augusts in recent years?

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Posted (edited)

The GEFS 6z contains some real scorchers, stunning potential for late July...just to be clear, there's plenty of cooler dross too but there's certainly a chance as things stand for a hot late July!👍🔥

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Edited by Jon Snow

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Its St. Swithins day tomorrow 🙂 , And funnily enough the models show the rain coming this week aswell!!! Lets hope this week doesn't turn into 40 days and nights of rain, troughing and low pressure ;)
Just a classic example of a typical summer pattern that set up in mid July and becoming the pattern that determined August.  

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Well, the options available from 06Z ensembles really do cater for a wide range of expectations::oldgrin:

t850London.png   t2mLondon.png

prmslLondon.png   prcpLondon.png

Hot, cold, wet or dry?:search:

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Just thought I would check the Gem 0z and I was pleasantly surprised..looking much warmer and settled later, especially further s / e.👍

gem-0-204.png

gem-0-228.png

gem-1-228.png

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Posted (edited)

The ICON 12z shows quite an improvement in around or just shy of a week's time, becoming more settled, at least for a time under the influence of higher pressure becoming centred just to the east enabling us to gradually tap into a continental air mass but probably a growing risk of thundery showers as it also becomes more humid...anyway..better than atlantic dross!!👍🌞

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Edited by Jon Snow

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Posted (edited)

The effect of cloud cover and onshore breeze on temps at 1500

15.thumb.gif.4d6aed217f0953b3042b39e1ed92ac37.gifs.thumb.JPG.161f44a7ac6b2fbc61b1c9187ec04306.JPG

Edited by knocker

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Midweek not looking too bad all of a sudden. Something has made it tough for the low to track into the UK, its been slowed down and taken a bit more of a northerly track.

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After some showery stuff on Tuesday the gfs has the main front and rain crossing the country on Thursday,with  the heaviest of the rain over Scotland and western regions

gfs-eur-t850_mslp_prcp6hr-3440400.thumb.png.225aa90e95acbd647fbd32d4c0fe7132.png

The front  quickly moves into the North Sea but as has been discussed in earlier posts the new upper trough has tracked across the Atlantic and merges with the  in situ trough on Friday, and the new composite trough becomes negatively tilted over the UK by Saturday  This results in a surface low tracking north east just west of the Hebrides with the associated fronts bringing some wet weather to mainly northern and western regions through Friday evening and through Saturday

gfs-natl_wide-vort500_z500-3537600.thumb.png.5cf1984bbee4a7eb038be3a523a0e2be.pnggfs-natl_wide-vort500_z500-3624000.thumb.png.088d89d5bc320e420d930ff4c74c5698.png

gfs-eur-t850_mslp_prcp6hr-3559200.thumb.png.ca27a0baeaffef5581c99c297207074b.pnggfs-eur-t850_mslp_prcp6hr-3645600.thumb.png.28e4b339cc6015f344d4ec1c326541e6.png

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Posted (edited)

Aha, the 12Z wants to put us back 'on the cusp', so to speak!:oldgrin:

h850t850eu.png   h500slp.png

Edited by Ed Stone

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Never fear, the ensembles are here!:yahoo:

t850London.png   t2mLondon.png

prmslLondon.png   prcpLondon.png

And they're really nae bad.

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Posted (edited)

The ecm is similar to the gfs this week except it takes the surface low across central Scotland Fri/Sat but then quickly clears it into the North Sea by midday leaving Saturday in a showery westerly

ecmwf-natl_wide-vort500_z500-3580800.thumb.png.89ff952dbbad2eebae45de3008f9f226.pngt132.thumb.png.a35f6b4b2c3a346a44eeffd52b1767f0.pngt144.thumb.png.6402e1cd69e421b1571bd9e60c37f6fa.png

A much drier day on Sunday and Monday but by then another more intense upper low has tracked east but also by now the European subtropical high has started to amplify which is quite important as it diverts the energy more to the north east and slows down the east ward movement of the deep surface low but not enough to stop it eventually moving across the country by Tuesday. Of course this detail is not finalized

ecmwf-nhemi-z500_anom-3775200.thumb.png.e1195dadad76e5ba7a8f2c312f2aedaf.pngecmwf-natl_wide-z300_speed-3796800.thumb.png.69432e2d20ed6dbe83c6445741184ea1.pngindex.thumb.png.316c058ee7c2a7817731ffda02cda9dc.png

 

 

Edited by knocker

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Good Evening! The overall theme from the models well Ecm in picticular is a stronger jet stream from midweek onwards,  

ecmt850.216.png

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1 minute ago, ANYWEATHER said:

Good Evening! The overall theme from the models well Ecm in picticular is a stronger jet stream from midweek onwards,  

ecmt850.216.png

That's next Tuesday?!

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The mean is not supportive of the DET..

Hopefully a less progressive op in the morning.

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That's not a bad mean from ECM... its less supportive of low pressure than the op which parked low pressure over us at day 8/9...looks to me like heights building pretty strongly towards the end. The operational was losing the plot at times regarding temps and pressure falling... So anybody calling a very unsettled spell based on the op should tread with caution. 

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This seems to be an ongoing problem with the ECM op in terms of the way it overblows low pressure over us.

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1 minute ago, Djdazzle said:

This seems to be an ongoing problem with the ECM op in terms of the way it overblows low pressure over us.

The day 9 low is overblown but the GFS12z is not radically different. A definite more mobile outlook beyond day 4.

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29 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

The day 9 low is overblown but the GFS12z is not radically different. A definite more mobile outlook beyond day 4.

Well its not definite is it! And it also looks very promising after a few iffy days. 

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Posted (edited)

Just downloaded/printed an enormous wodge of papers on teleconnections...but the pages came out in a random mess---just like a GFS ensemble!:olddoh:

Edited by Ed Stone

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The NH 500mb profile and the North Atlantic surface analysis for midnight and the 0300 UTC UK chart

gfs-nhemi-z500_anom-3148800.thumb.png.9d0027fe93cd05fc3e51752d9fe64af3.pngPPVA89.thumb.gif.c739d65eea6277bae14f0ec40b934fb2.gif03.thumb.gif.2743d93c194876d0bc482fa1fdfb7794.gif

At the moment cloud is still persisting in the south east but this should clear this morning with sunny intervals for the rest of the day. And this is the story elsewhere although some showers may pop up in western and northern regions

PPVE89.thumb.gif.edbeded19b30f7896f06088a5fcca7e8.gif431968100_maxmon.thumb.png.e7759eeed1d219e7cdc291f818204c9b.png950wind_d02_15.thumb.png.4360e42b054adbecb89092f479ca70b3.png

meanreflec_d02_17.thumb.png.a84d2120c45a011305a7fa3c3d8680f2.pngmeanreflec_d02_20.thumb.png.1680ee5659fe4e2ef1bf5b255dd6a2a1.pngmeanreflec_d02_24.thumb.png.e9cbe345b7e84aeb1a13f1ec3c023f06.png

Any showers should fizzle out this evening leaving a clear night with broken cloud but in the early hours thickening cloud and the odd shower will encroach from the west, courtesy of a weakening cold front preceded by a trough/

PPVG89.thumb.gif.0e152e8198b98b53f64a4bb9d2961c4c.gif

Through Tuesday the invigorated front and trough continue to edge east resulting in more frequent showers in N. Ireland, Scotland, Wales and the Midlands. Elsewhere a warm and sunny day, which unlike today, may well include eastern coastal regions.

PPVI89.thumb.gif.ad6d59974b629fa07528d5e668ffdb80.gif1582250938_maxtues.thumb.png.0c69a82776bd7546a591ca7c13651cf8.pngprecip_d02_41.thumb.png.7963c7c3380d06061dd8ca40b20fd948.pngprecip_d02_45.thumb.png.b20d629ee8ae362b1d8dcd6359ccec9b.pngprecip_d02_48.thumb.png.7a2c3b8a862a6b441574535390dd3391.png

The cold front fizzles out over Tuesday night but the Atlantic is getting it's act together and fronts associated with the trough to the north west bring rain and strengthening winds on weds with the heaviest rain in western and northern areas.

gfs-natl_wide-vort500_z500-3375600.thumb.png.9590e8801d6d3a7e1ea665a2c02c43a3.pngPPVJ89.thumb.gif.b80fa8c67183b3b89844581831173d13.gifPPVK89.thumb.gif.993a6d506af7a9b582742ea4542816f6.gif

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Showery rain associated with the occlusion will clear to the east during Thursday but more persistent rain will effect N. Ireland and Scotland through the afternoon courtesy of a trough embedded in the circulation of the low to the north west.

gfs-natl_wide-vort500_z500-3462000.thumb.png.5f262659a0158dcd02552ecca82bf0ca.pngPPVM89.thumb.gif.94c590f316b7deb3a39ccd0725f486b2.gif

1791390657_rainth18.thumb.png.c0dc429b0af031c1a3c7d026f14a3282.png1456560345_maxth.thumb.png.2a6685ae9923446cbc3b50d12b747adc.png

All of this clears away over Thursday night but the upper low that has been discussed in previous posts is now arriving and by midday Friday a shallow surface low is centred over N. Ireland with the associated frontal system crossing the country. Thus a wet and windy day with possibly the heaviest rain in western and southern regions.

gfs-natl_wide-vort500_z500-3548400.thumb.png.7f9f5b74219efb85e836c2e11d009fc9.pngPPVO89.thumb.gif.2d0a2f990fa1ebfef1394d45784ea3cf.gif103051494_maxfr.thumb.png.3dbbd170a47c1f2fa066701d04e86847.png

 

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Just to note here before continuing briefly with the gfs that the latter is somewhat at odds with Exeter on the movement and timing of the Friday low.So I'll make a reasonable assumption the the low and cold front will clear to the east Friday/Saturday morning resulting in a showery day on Saturday

By Sunday we have arrived at the tricky area with a new upper lows arriving from the west over the next two or three days whilst simultaneously the European subtropical high strays to amplify. So how far east will the surface lows manage to track? Not far according to the gfs albeit some showery rain does encroach over Sunday and Monday

gfs-nhemi-z500_anom-3753600.thumb.png.e4cb7fa819d06f0a511e6bd798297523.pngmon.thumb.png.83bb531d56d2a85dd206d1a0de3cdc52.pngsun.thumb.png.fafaaa18d5747b61f15486a9b91fa458.png

gfs-nhemi-z500_anom-3840000.thumb.png.8d354b430fd5fc0765d003172960e6ba.png

All of this is a long way from being set in stone

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Posted (edited)

So how is the ecm handling the evolution at the beginning of next week?

On Sunday the Atlantic troughs are winging across the atlantic on the strong upper flow south of the Greenland block

ecmwf-nhemi-z300_speed-3710400.thumb.png.cc54ffae832bcfb31d18c04cc4d9f3a6.png

And over the next couple of days it is essentially a matter of the energy distribution as the Atlantic trough(s) doing battle against the blocking ridge I feel it might be a day or two before this is sorted

ecmwf-nhemi-z500_anom-3883200.thumb.png.e8c49763d4ad0bec5578b5748e8a0e8f.pngindex.thumb.png.f44a9de1d9c374b997bd77bc678533dd.png

 

 

Edited by knocker

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ECM turns hot later in the run!

image.thumb.png.19fbdf697b018912770e07e3f6ff37d5.pngimage.thumb.png.43e749a46c37dffcd80aba71fc58eca9.png

Very strange chart there - 18c 850s from a SW'erly??! Normally it's always a a S/SE'erly for air that warm. As a result humidity would be very high in that sort of set up.

A lot hinges on how that low whistling across the Atlantic through early to mid next week engages with the jet stream & where it ends up. Position crucial.

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