Model output discussion - first hot, thundery plume of the summer

[Frosty.]

Temperatures look preety perfect for most of the week ahead, say from midweek once the cloud and patchy rain buggers off!

Increasing amounts of sunshine but also beefy showers later in the week, actually tomorrow there should be quite a lot of sunshine around, it's tuesday which looks rather cloudier for most.

Edited July 7, 2019 by Jon Snow

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Ecm as you were, some showers around, especially mid week into Thursday. Friday into the weekend high pressure building, looks like a good spell at this point... Beyond that low pressure showing signs of pushing down from the NW,, long way off, and hopefully it won't stick around like the last one did for yonks  

Also worth noting is high pressure still close by to the SW.. so let's see if the mean can play on this a little. 

Edited July 7, 2019 by Mattwolves

[Frosty.]

OMG no comments on the Ecm 12z operational..it must be terrible right?, let me go check...........wrong!!!...  it looks ok to me, as per other output there's ridging, there's warmth, there's sunshine..there's a risk of thundery showers at times and next weekend could be fine with high pressure..very acceptable..and Matt beat me to it..not that its a race or anything!!

 

Edited July 7, 2019 by Jon Snow

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Working overtime this evening with these charts it's not a bad mean tbh! Low pressure  not quite as dominant has the operational showed at day 8 or 9...I'll settle for that. 

[Guest]

1 hour ago, Jon Snow said:

OMG no comments on the Ecm 12z operational..it must be terrible right?, let me go check...........wrong!!!...  it looks ok to me, as per other output there's ridging, there's warmth, there's sunshine..there's a risk of thundery showers at times and next weekend could be fine with high pressure..very acceptable..and Matt beat me to it..not that its a race or anything!!

 

Its not the worst run you’ll see but it’s hardly great, let’s be honest it dullsville central and hence lack of posts, reduced 850’s on previous runs with the 10c isotherm not making it in at all, plenty of cloud away from the south and temps mid teens to low twenties north to south, hardly riveting stuff for what is effectively now high summer.

[Frosty.]

1 hour ago, Alderc said:

Its not the worst run you’ll see but it’s hardly great

I didn't say it was great, I said it was ok..there's a difference!!

[Sky Full]

A good agreement between the UKMO 500s and the GFS Jet stream charts for the end of the week, showing high pressure developing for the weekend bringing settled weather for all:

                                       UKMO.                                                        GFS

Friday:         

Saturday:  . 

Sunday:.     

Thats not just any old High Pressure - that's a UK High Pressure!

 

 

Edited July 8, 2019 by Sky Full

[Methuselah]

Welcome to another set of okay GEFS ensembles:

  

  

There ought to be enough in there to keep most people happy, most of the time?

 

[northwestsnow]

Mid month coming into view now, EC showing a glancing Atlantic blow but in the meantime its looking like another lovely weekend next

[mushymanrob]

23 hours ago, johnholmes said:

I've not posted my comments in here on what the surface weather might be from my use of the 500 mb anomaly charts largely because the GFS output seems to 'awol' most days. Has anyone any idea why this is or where I might get its output from please?

Anyway still no GFS this morning so using just ECMWF and NOAA suggests this to me

So to SUN 7th

Ec in okay but no gfs again, no idea why it now appears in full so rarely, must ask on Net Wx!

Anyway ec shows a general w’ly flow with some ridging in uk area out towards area between Iceland and Greenland, so no total trough or ridge set up and little signal for any marked ridging from a s’ly area

Noaa looks not unlike ec so a pattern something like the two seems the most likely in the next 6-10 days

Its 8-14 shows a generally fairly slack w’ly flow so our weather perhaps a day or two of settled with ridging in charge, maybe a day or two longer then less settled for a few days. Nothing I can see, IF these two are correct, to suggest any prolonged heatwave showing up in the next 2 weeks at least?

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

 

yep.... no heatwave, but no monsoon either, just a lot of very typical, average, summers weather. pleasant in the sunnier periods, frustrating under the cloudier/wetter spells.

is there any tangible signs of something different emerging from the teleconnections?...

[mb018538]

Looking like the 'nothingness' weather is set to continue for a while longer then. No dominant high or low pressure, very slack, and a very weak jet stream.

Just take a look at 192 hours:



No wonder things aren't really moving.

A bit of a North/South split too - wetter further north, drier and warmer further south:



Temperatures potentially up to 25-27c by the end of the week/weekend in a few spots. Not bad at all.

[danm]

Don’t think any of us can complain with the weekend charts from the UKMO:

 

[Frosty.]

I've said this a lot recently but I'll say it again, the Ecm 0z ensemble mean doesn't look bad, it looks ok, especially at the end of this week / early next week!

[northwestsnow]

Yes Karl, a few showers around this week and then , hopefully a nice weekend.

Attention then turns to beyond mid month, im expecting some kind of Atlantic influence , hoping this does not become early June again with troughing becoming boxed in.

 

Edited July 8, 2019 by northwestsnow

[Derecho]

Seems like we are going to have a very mixed week, with Tuesday - Thursday looking showery. Thursday could be quite lively as a trough moves down the North Sea and bumps into some rather warm air. Lots of heavy showers in the east and perhaps thundery at times.

    

GFS may be overestimating CAPE as per usual but if the sun pops out, temperatures could head towards the mid 20s which would fuel the showers.

After that things settle down. A warm weekend looking likely and settled as well! Shame we won't be seeing a cheeky shower at Silverstone to liven up the British Grand Prix however.

Overall a slightly warmer then average picture as the below chart shows. Cool to our east but in contrast to recent years the Arctic and Greenland are looking very warm indeed... with global temperatures a fairly impressive 0.45C above the 1981-2010 average, especially when you consider there is no El Nino.

 

[Methuselah]

Things still looking a bit messy, at T+177...all is not revealed!

  

I'm starting to get the feeling that it may take some hurricane/TS remnants to really stir things up?

[Paul_1978]

16 hours ago, Bushbaby77 said:

It looks like this summer will fall into the poor to average category. The charts certainly look that way. 

Not sure about that. For me, the week just gone was just right. Mainly dry, not too hot, not too cold.

I was at a car show this weekend, and the weather was just right. I went to the same show last year and it was far too hot and uncomfortable and no-one enjoyed it. Yesterday it was sunny and 21C, absolutely perfect. 

I can't understand why anyone would want it to be hot when we have got the weather on offer that we have presently which is spot on.

As for the models, I don't see a lot to be disappointed about in the reliable timeframe (T+144) - the fine and pleasant weather continues! Perfect!

[Guest]

Hmmm it’s getting towards crunch time for me, I’m meant to be off next week. Currently the plan is a staycation, model output isn’t helping me to decide whether or not to shell out for an emergency trip abroad. Looks like a weak Atlantic May win though early next week. Until then GFS 06z like so many runs before has the south coast mainly dry and increasingly warm. 

[Methuselah]

Things really look to have reached an impasse don't they? I think I'll leave it for the background-signals to sort out?

  

Can weather be anally retentive?

[Frosty.]

Not the most summery end to the Gfs 6z operational but at least the 850's don't look too bad!

[NApplewhite]

5 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

Not the most summery end to the Gfs 6z operational but at least the 850's don't look too bad!

No sign of a heatwave then for the next 16 days! Very disappointing 

[Guest]

17 minutes ago, NApplewhite said:

No sign of a heatwave then for the next 16 days! Very disappointing 

Yep, it’s high summer, time to take advantage of max solar input, long days and SSTs and nearby landmasses that have no got some warmth in them. Even in FI the models can’t muster something imagery up. 

[Frosty.]

10 minutes ago, Alderc said:

 Even in FI the models can’t muster something imagery up. 

Not true, there's some stonking members in the GEFS 6z!!

[Methuselah]

Well, here we are: the much-awaited GEFS 06Z ensembles have arrived. And aren't they exciting! In fact, they are so exciting that I'm going to watch that sudden burst of scatter, after 22/7, just to prove that NWP models cannae pick up pattern-changes, at such long rage...?

  

  

Edited July 8, 2019 by Ed Stone

[Frosty.]

I love the 6z mean longer term..it looks summery!