Model output discussion - first hot, thundery plume of the summer

[h2005__uk__]

Is a cut-off low good or bad for UK weather?

[Captain Shortwave]

14 minutes ago, h2005__uk__ said:

Is a cut-off low good or bad for UK weather?

Depends where it ends up but looking at the models I would say the more likely place for one to form would be very close to the one that has been driving the European pattern this week - possible hot conditions again.

a long way off at the moment, but hints are there that this could occur.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

12 minutes ago, h2005__uk__ said:

Is a cut-off low good or bad for UK weather?

It can be very beneficial namely helping to import very warm air from the south. They are most frequent with instances of low circulation index. You can have a cut off low with a cut off high, this more likely in a blocking type of situation. They are slow moving low pressure systems which can bring unsettled conditions and storms in the summer months, so I would say the key is where the cut off low resides! 

[Frosty.]

I'm happy with the Gem 12z because it's generally anticyclonic or very ridgy, it flirts with danger but the ridge pretty much holds its ground, at least further south and it becomes warmer..good news for wimbledon!

[SMU]

Lovely lovely UKMO tonight

Light winds & becoming hot especially in the SW - temps probably approaching 30c by weds / thurs...

[mb018538]

6 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Lovely lovely UKMO tonight

Light winds & becoming hot especially in the SW - temps probably approaching 30c by weds / thurs...

Was just going to say the same.....ukmo has it turning pretty hot again by the end of the week. A real gem of a run  

[Methuselah]

The GFS 12Z, though hardly 'dire' or 'abysmal, never quite gets HP east enough to pull up a plume. But, hey, there's plenty of time yet for a 1997-like pattern to emerge...and two-weeks' not-so-hot fineness is nae to be sniffed at?

  

Maybe just a sniff there, right at the death?

[Frosty.]

The ukmo 12h is probably the pick of the bunch but there is very good support from the other models for high pressure or at least strong ridging to dominate next week, at least across southern uk..hopefully the Ecm will make it a full house!!

Edited June 29, 2019 by Jon Snow

[MATTWOLVES 3]

1 minute ago, Ed Stone said:

The GFS 12Z, though hardly 'dire' or 'abysmal, never quite gets HP east enough to pull up a plume. But, hey, there's plenty of time yet for a 1997-like pattern to emerge...and two-weeks' not-so-hot fineness is nae to be sniffed at?

  

Maybe just a sniff there, right at the death?

Potential high 20s perhaps a 30c by end of next week going on UKMO though, I would say that's pretty dam hot Pete...

[Summer Sun]

12z UKMO gets the south back into the upper 20s towards the end of next week as high pressure dominates our weather next week

Wednesday peaks in the low 20s

Thursday gets into the mid and probably upper 20s in the London area and quite widely into the low 20s

Friday only goes to 13:00 but the mid to upper 20s again looks quite possible

[Frosty.]

Looking at the GEFS 12z mean, the week ahead looks very decent for the majority under high pressure / strong azores ridging and generally warm, perhaps only the far north missing out...longer term, on balance things take a turn for the worse with cooler air and showery troughs more dominant towards mid July but this doesn't preclude warmer settled spells, indeed a few members show that. 

Edited June 29, 2019 by Jon Snow

[MATTWOLVES 3]

6 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

Looking at the GEFS 12z mean, the week ahead looks very decent for the majority under high pressure / strong azores ridging and generally warm, perhaps only the far north missing out...longer term, on balance things take a turn for the worse with cooler air and showery troughs more dominant towards mid July but this doesn't preclude warmer settled spells, indeed a few members show that. 

I'm not to concerned by that Karl.. Firstly to far out, and the uncertainty significantly increases by this point... Either way you look at it July is going to be nothing like the first few weeks of June.

[Methuselah]

19 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

Looking at the GEFS 12z mean, the week ahead looks very decent for the majority under high pressure / strong azores ridging and generally warm, perhaps only the far north missing out...longer term, on balance things take a turn for the worse with cooler air and showery troughs more dominant towards mid July but this doesn't preclude warmer settled spells, indeed a few members show that. 

Indeed Karl, the 12Z is somewhat messy; a good deal of scatter, once we get past the 5th of July:

  

  

More runs needed.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Not a bad ECM overall, the pressure pattern looks a bit slack in the latter stages but temperatures overall remain in the warm sometimes very warm category... 

[Frosty.]

Indeed, good Ecm 12z operational for the majority with plenty of high pressure / strong ridging  bringing predominantly fine and warm weather, very warm or even hot and humid across the south later in the run and probably an increasing risk of thundery showers!

Edited June 29, 2019 by Jon Snow

[MATTWOLVES 3]

ECM mean folks... Steady has she goes... That's my shift done for the day... Enjoy your evening folks... Barbecue and a beer sounds like a plan...

[Man With Beard]

Some fair output all round for next week, but something of an unusual battle between the UKMO and ECM at the moment - the UKMO looks to build in what looks a more robust pattern that could deliver a longer period of settled and very warm conditions, even hot if that trough to the SW tries to escape - while the ECM's ridge looks half-hearted even on the mean chart, the kind of chart that makes you think the trough has half a chance of breaking through, and, in this case, even allowing the Scandi trough more extensive influence later on. 

Hopefully the UKMO is leading the way here - a strange situation as usually t he ECM and UKMO are the best bed fellows at T120/T144, with the GFS the trouble maker. 

[Singularity]

Spotted something seriously off with the GEFS this eve. They have a clear Niño standing wave formation in the Pacific, yet they send AAM downward, way down in fact, into the Nina phases of the GWO.

Its like the usual negative bias is on steroids!

I think we see this in the trouble the model has keeping lows to the NE away from us consistently. ECM also prone to this but less markedly overall, historically at least.

 

To be honest what jumps out to me most is not necessarily UK-based... it’s the potential for the unusually sluggish jet (Arctic amplification in effect) and Nino forcing to bring about another exceptional heatwave across W Europe - as others have well noticed via the cut-off low signal west of Portugal. Whether the UK gets more involved or not than this time around, is anyone’s guess!

Edited June 29, 2019 by Singularity

[ANYWEATHER]

Evening.... ! A Quierter week ahead , some very chilly nights too,for this time of year and some of the Highland valleys could see a frost!!! Really what stands out is the undulating jet stream becoming prominent in the days ahead...

[Mr Frost]

In my lifetime so far...today has been the equal greatest weather day of all time! (BFTE 2018 the other )

It had everything - warmth, sun, mist, fog, spectacular lightning, ear splitting thunder and a perfect sunset to end the day! 

If Summer finished tomorrow I would give it a 10 out of 10 after the last incredible four days!

I would also be happy with something like this from the GFS 12z for the rest of Summer - if no proper hot weather was on the cards!

Hope everyone enjoyed the scorching temperatures down South today - shame we didn’t break the record but we have all learned so much about upper 850’s, surface temperatures and North Sea wind! 

A big thank you again to every single member who has posted in this thread and previous ones - it has been a joy to read!

We go again in July! 

Edited June 29, 2019 by Mr Frost

[Guest]

On a surprisingly cloudy start to Sunday a fair bit of model cheer this morning. GFS, ICON and a gem of a GEM all strongly ridge high pressure back across the UK during the middle part of the week raising temps and bringing plenty of sun. GEM brings uppers of 19c into the south by D6 and temps again widely into the 30s once again. UKMO holds high pressure slightly further west at 144 but still a good solid summery run. 

Edited June 30, 2019 by Alderc

[Guest]

ECM considerably less interested in bringing back high pressure than the rest keeping the Scandi trough much closer to home than pretty much all the other models. Hopefully an outlier not a trend.

[Methuselah]

Could the GFS 00Z be onto something, here? Are we about to see HP develop over Scandinavia, and finally wave goodbye to the persistent trough? Probably too early to say just now, but hope springs eternal?

  

And the ensembles?

  

  

So, not too bad; plenty of days with maxes of around 25C...Not to be sniffed at.

[StormChaseUK]

GFS 00z is good , if the next runs keep building the temperatures then this will be great July. (Blooming needs to be)

[northwestsnow]

EC mean looks decent -

No sign of any troughing becoming attached to our locale..

Perhaps some support for the DET with a glancing blow from the scandy trough but not really anything significant and  perhaps only affecting the far NE..

A brief look at the UK raw data reveals temps across Southern UK (at a stab manchester south) to be in the 20-25 deg range- higher figures for the south /south east.

Slightly lower as one heads north into Scotland - mid to upper teens..

So, as one would expect in these set ups, a decent outlook, certainly a million miles better than what the first 3 weeks of June offered.