Model output discussion - first hot, thundery plume of the summer

[ANYWEATHER]

After a rather Bizarre Spanish plume , The Atlantic is washing away the heat and humidity, from the UK and large parts of Europe...The jet stream shows an Undulating pattern as we we go into next week, meaning some dry spells but some wet spells too ...Growers Delight, was that a name of a tomato?

[Mike Poole]

32 minutes ago, J10 said:

You are correct

Hottest temp in Wales 30c in Llanfairfechan, with the foehn effect coming into play. The forecast temp there today was around 23c.

Yes, I agree, I saved this chart to my iPad earlier, but it is relevant to this, temperatures at about 2pm UK time:

The 29C on the north Devon coast took my interest precisely because of the Fohn effect, no doubt those local to the area may want to comment on that.  Surface wind direction and speed has been very relevant to the whole of this set up so far.  But that's quite different to what might cause high temperatures tomorrow in the SE, more with a higher starting point, and a true plume from the south.

Edited June 28, 2019 by Mike Poole

[knocker]

The SYNOP max temps today

http://www.met.reading.ac.uk/~brugge/18.html

[Mr Frost]

I will just leave this here...

 

Looks toasty tomorrow.

I do hope the June record is beaten tomorrow - especially after all the fantastic analysis and chat about it in here for the past 10 days. 

Hopefully in the medium/long term we see a return to hot and sunny weather up here - got very used to it the last three days! 

Have a good weekend everyone - excited for tomorrow and how hot it gets! 

Edited June 28, 2019 by Mr Frost

[danm]

58 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Yes, I agree, I saved this chart to my iPad earlier, but it is relevant to this, temperatures at about 2pm UK time:

The 29C on the north Devon coast took my interest precisely because of the Fohn effect, no doubt those local to the area may want to comment on that.  Surface wind direction and speed has been very relevant to the whole of this set up so far.  But that's quite different to what might cause high temperatures tomorrow in the SE, more with a higher starting point, and a true plume from the south.

Agree with this. The very highest temperatures today (29c/30c) were localised spots which benefitted from the foehn effect (Porthmadog, western Highlands). Elsewhere out west, temperatures in the warmest spots were generally between 24c and 28c. 

Switching over the heat to the east tomorrow, we are likely to see a more widespread area where temperatures will get into the low to mid 30s. Part of the reason is the E & SE benefit more from a continental influence, with S/SE’rly winds coming straight from an intensely hot continental landmass with a very short sea track. Hence why max temperatures tomorrow are forecast at 34c, whereas today a couple of spots “just” managed 30c.

Edited June 28, 2019 by danm

[Scorcher]

47 minutes ago, knocker said:

The SYNOP max temps today

http://www.met.reading.ac.uk/~brugge/18.html

29.2C at RAF Mona- very impressive for Anglesey. I can't imagine the all-time record for Anglesey is much higher than that.

[johnholmes]

8 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

29.2C at RAF Mona- very impressive for Anglesey. I can't imagine the all-time record for Anglesey is much higher than that.

33.6 C at RAF Valley July 2006

https://www.independent.co.uk/environment/hottest-july-day-as-temperatures-top-36c-to-break-1911-record-408607.html

[Mike Poole]

After the heatfest tomorrow, the smart money is on a UK high, here's ICON T120 on the 18z run:

All good here....if you like summer weather, we've had to wait for it!

Edited June 28, 2019 by Mike Poole

[J10]

16 minutes ago, danm said:

Agree with this. The very highest temperatures today (29c/30c) were localised spots which benefitted from the foehn effect (Porthmadog, western Highlands). Elsewhere out west, temperatures in the warmest spots were generally between 24c and 28c. 

Switching over the heat to the east tomorrow, we are likely to see a more widespread area where temperatures will get into the low to mid 30s. Part of the reason is the E & SE benefit more from a continental influence, with S/SE’rly winds coming straight from an intensely hot continental landmass with a very short sea track. Hence why max temperatures tomorrow are forecast at 34c, whereas today a couple of spots “just” managed 30c.

I'll transfer over my post from the heatwave thread.

----------------------------------------------------
25c temperatures were today recorded over most of Wales, SW England (excluding Cornwall), NW England, W Scotland and parts of Northern Ireland, that is not a small percentage of the UK.

It covered more of an area, than is often the case when London gets a warm spell, and NW Britain is stuck under damp and drizzly conditions.  

All 4 countries in the UK had 25c which is not something that happens every day, so when tomorrow it hits over 30c in the South East, it will largely confined to England.

Locally I am not that bothered if we have technically received a heatwave, all i know is that the weather has been stunning for the past 3 days, with another decent day (at least) expected tomorrow.
--------------------------------------------------

Once plumegate is over, it seems all parts will have received some very warm/hot weather, which is more notable than a typical "heatwave concentrated in London / SE England.

 

[danm]

3 minutes ago, J10 said:

I'll transfer over my post from the heatwave thread.

----------------------------------------------------
25c temperatures were today recorded over most of Wales, SW England (excluding Cornwall), NW England, W Scotland and parts of Northern Ireland, that is not a small percentage of the UK.

It covered more of an area, than is often the case when London gets a warm spell, and NW Britain is stuck under damp and drizzly conditions.  

All 4 countries in the UK had 25c which is not something that happens every day, so when tomorrow it hits over 30c in the South East, it will largely confined to England.

Locally I am not that bothered if we have technically received a heatwave, all i know is that the weather has been stunning for the past 3 days, with another decent day (at least) expected tomorrow.
--------------------------------------------------

Once plumegate is over, it seems all parts will have received some very warm/hot weather, which is more notable than a typical "heatwave concentrated in London / SE England.

 

Don’t disagree with anything you’ve just said. I was simply commenting on the intensity of the heat and why, from essentially the same airmass, places further east will see the hottest temperatures in this spell, potentially to the mid 30’s.

[Mike Poole]

Have to say at T132, I'm preferring the legacy GFS to the FV3:

We'll miss it when it's gone!  

Edited June 28, 2019 by Mike Poole

[Scorcher]

1 hour ago, johnholmes said:

33.6 C at RAF Valley July 2006

https://www.independent.co.uk/environment/hottest-july-day-as-temperatures-top-36c-to-break-1911-record-408607.html

Fair enough, a long way off but in terms of June temperatures I can't imagine there have been many higher there.

[bluearmy]

Uppers of 24.9 in s Cambs this evening ......

[bluearmy]

1 hour ago, matty007 said:

Never has that upper air temp been in the UK before. Think about that....

Then wonder why we're not nearing 40c.... has it got your puzzled? Yeah, me too. Today felt warmish...ish. 

The low level flow is still off the North Sea whilst the uppers at 1500m are indeed astonishing !!

this changes tomorrow as that flow is cut off but the high uppers are also pushed away as the CF approaches from the west - an unusual scenario indeed - if we had managed Sunday aswell with a s flow and +20c uppers then I suspect we would indeed have seen 35/38c in se England - hey ho

[knocker]

2 hours ago, matty007 said:

I remember walking out of Bangkok airport the first time I'd ever been abroad. 42c. To be honest, it felt hot indeed, but not that uncomfortable. Granted I have a high tolerance to heat yes, but you would get used to it quickly. And the great thing about Thailand etc? very little wind. So the temperatures that are there, you can actually feel.  

I

Not always the case of course. The WHO estimated that the extreme heat in 2003 caused 15,000 excess deaths in France, Portugal and Italy alone

And the book on the disaster of the Chicago heat wave of 1995 makes uncomfortable reading.

[knocker]

Today heralds the swan song of the plume over the UK as it moves east under pressure from the west.

But before it departs later tonight it will leave a legacy of a very hot day over central, southern and eastern England

The North Atlantic 500mb and surface analysis for midnight and the Nottingham sounding.

Any early morning mist/Stratus in eastern regions will quickly burn off and temps will start rise very quickly

It will be cloudier and cooler in western regions courtesy of the waving cold front and trough and there could well be some showers this afternoon becoming thundery later..

The storms will intensify this evening over N. Ireland and NW England but more particularly over Scotland giving way later to more more general intermittent rain in NW/W regions as an occlusion approaches from the west

By Sunday the cold front is well clear to the east and the UK is much cooler than of late. So essentially a day of sunshine and showers that will be more prevalent in the north and west, courtesy of another occlusion.

Over Sunday night and through Monday the subtropical high to west starts to amplify veering the wind over the UK where showers will again occur main;y in the north and west courtesy of another occlusion sliding south east.

Over Tuesday and Weds the aforementioned subtropical high ridges over the UK so a couple of dry days, little wind and plenty of sunshine with temps around average.

 

[knocker]

40 minutes ago, matty007 said:

Hey, I'm not mad at all. I'm just stating my opinion. 

I am not for one moment saying that I want a tropical climate with extreme heat. I am simply saying that sometimes it would be nice if the synoptics delivered how they are supposed to. It would be lovely to see a plume not being watered down. And it would be nice to see a warm period without the wind etc detracting from it.  

This exact view could just as easily be said from the people who prefer cold. Please tell me this...do you want a beast from the east that is forecast to be very cold only for it to degrade more and more closer to the time? Or do you want a beast from the east that actually delivers? 

Yes, I think I know the answer...

Very few of us wish for a arctic or tropical climate...it would just be nice to see extremes or sustained warmth/cold occasionally. 

Oh that's a no brainer.... the former every time as that would definitely be a win win.

[knocker]

Moving on briefly with the gfs

BY Thursday a new upper low gas tracked east and frontal rain is in to N. Ireland Scotland by midday as the surface low slips past the north of Scotland

And by midday Friday the low is over southern Norway with the UK in a showery north westerly

 

[knocker]

Currently a fair amount of mist/Stratus around and slight rain, fog and sky obscured here.

[Blessed Weather]

Lots of overnight posts moved to the Summer 2019 Moans, Ramps, Chat thread. Please keep this thread for Model Output Discussion. There is absolutely no problem chatting about the heat, temperatures, past events, etc, - it's great to see - but please post in the appropriate thread. Here's the options:

Regional impacts: https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

Moans, Ramps, Chat: https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/91676-summer-2019-moans-ramps-chat-etc/

How hot will it be (competition): https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/92007-how-hot-will-it-be-temperature-competition/

Many thanks.

[knocker]

The ecm take for Thurs/Frid. As an overview next week looking dry, relatively pleasant with temps around average

 

[knocker]

Satellite 0600 UTC

[Methuselah]

Not a bad set of GEFS 00Z ensembles, and probably not much point in making guesses about what might happen, after around July 5:

  

  

Either way, it'll no' take much of a perturbation for us to see another plume. Or not!

[mb018538]

I think pleasant would best describe this mornings ecm run. Temps around average or a little above at times, mainly settled. Can’t ask for much more than that!

[Snowy L]

8 hours ago, bluearmy said:

Uppers of 24.9 in s Cambs this evening ......

Surely that's the 850hpa record broken?