Model output discussion - first hot, thundery plume of the summer

[Djdazzle]

12 minutes ago, StormChaseUK said:

Cardiff got to 27C so I think the Max for London tomorrow will be 32C,  33C tops.

The max in Cardiff today has no connection with the max in London tomorrow!

[Tim Bland]

21 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

It's nae the day-to-day details, at the end of the 12Z, that interest me, it's two generalities: the heat is still firmly entrenched over Europe, and there's no sign of any substantial HLBs.

  

And there’s Nae sign of the UK joining the Euro heat wave anytime soon

[StormChaseUK]

8 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

The max in Cardiff today has no connection with the max in London tomorrow!

Yes it does, read earlier posts.  

[Methuselah]

5 minutes ago, StormChaseUK said:

Yes it does, read earlier posts.  

Aye. But the connection is not causal.

[StormChaseUK]

Just now, Ed Stone said:

Aye. But the connection is not causal.

No, but we can combine upper temperatures, GFS predictions from today with actual results and apply something similar to tomorrow.

Yes the wind will be more southerly but at least we can predict more accurately based on today.

[Mike Poole]

5 hours ago, Mike Poole said:

AROME ensembles 21z take on peak temperatures tomorrow.

Probability >30C:

Probability >35C:

Will be interesting to see how this changes on this mornings run, due out around 4pm.  My thoughts are that the probabilities will have increased.

Updated charts from the 9z, probability >30C:

Probability >35C:

So a slight increase in likelihood of beating 35C somewhere, but some places have seen a decrease in likelihood, more likely to be the SE now.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

4 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Updated charts from the 9z, probability >30C:

Probability >35C:

So a slight increase in likelihood of beating 35C somewhere, but some places have seen a decrease in likelihood, more likely to be the SE now.

Tbh Mike its irrelevant the sun will fry you whether it's 28 or 35c... I'm testiment to that fact today....

[Methuselah]

12Z ensembles are okay: 

                                          

As an aside, I've just seen the latest MetO video for tomorrow; they agree with Mike in that the all-time June record will be under threat.

[Frosty.]

Looking at the GEFS 12z mean there's good support for the azores ridge next week, at least across southern uk so predominantly fine and at least pleasantly warm further south. Looking longer term, no suggestion that the atlantic will fire up, overall it's quite a benign set up with various ridges and troughs floating around in a very slack pressure field, it's just a matter of where they set up..there's potential for further continental incursions but also cooler air from the north..so some large swings in temperatures are possible as we go through July.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Aye. looks cloudless skies for day 3 of Wimbledon, certainly hot on court over 40C in the sun, real temp around 27 as a guess

[Captain Shortwave]

An even split tonight’s operationals regarding later next week. GFS and UKMO tending to keep pressure high with the next low much slower in its progress across the Atlantic. ECM and GEM going for a glancing north/northwesterly as the low tracks more quickly and engages that Scandinavian low.

As for tomorrow, 30c looks possible across a large part of England (exception being the south west). Also some large diurnal ranges possible across East Anglia and Lincolnshire where temperatures tonight could fall into single figures.

Edited June 28, 2019 by Captain Shortwave

[Froze were the Days]

12 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Aye. looks cloudless skies for day 3 of Wimbledon, certainly hot on court over 40C in the sun, real temp around 27 as a guess

I think you're going a bit high there...temps will fall by Monday but recover slightly so doubt it will be above 25c anywhere...

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

39 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

12Z ensembles are okay: 

                                          

As an aside, I've just seen the latest MetO video for tomorrow; they agree with Mike in that the all-time June record will be under threat.

Slight increase in ppn. over the previous run.

[Frosty.]

Not a bad Ecm 12z operational with plenty of fine and warm weather next week, especially further south due to azores ridging, less of a cool northerly risk later next week, only a glancing blow more restricted to the far n / ne before it's shunted away by another pressure rise from the southwest, becoming very warm towards the end of next week further south with another influx of continental air..not bad, much better than last evening's 12z which we should be comparing with!!!

Edited June 28, 2019 by Jon Snow

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Not a bad ECM especially further South... And at times it could be very warm with perhaps a bit of continental influence... Perhaps finally summer has now arrived more widely!! Lovely jubiley

[matty007]

1 hour ago, Mattwolves said:

Tbh Mike its irrelevant the sun will fry you whether it's 28 or 35c... I'm testiment to that fact today....

Just a shame about that damn northerly breeze. It’s way too strong. 

 

27c here today but feels like 19-20c with that nagging 20mph wind .

[Man With Beard]

ECM is struggling with D6-D10 I think. Every run is different in this time frame. The ensembles have been a similar story, though if anything more geared to a UKMO solution. Lots to play for, though I always get a bit nervous when high pressure builds in weakly during the summer, it's always vulnerable to be crushed by the Atlantic. But if the high pressure based ensembles win out, we could end up with a UK high for the second week of July, and that means a possible heatwave (real one this time!) 

Wow, this forum is really buzzing this summer! 

[Djdazzle]

1 hour ago, StormChaseUK said:

Yes it does, read earlier posts.  

I did read your post earlier. The point still stands. Your logic seems a bit flawed.

in any case many of the hi res models are going for 35C tomorrow, so I think you maybe a little low with your prediction,

[MattStoke]

40 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

I think you're going a bit high there...temps will fall by Monday but recover slightly so doubt it will be above 25c anywhere...

Well 24’C is the summer average in London, so 27’C isn’t a huge stretch with high pressure in charge.

[J10]

1 hour ago, Djdazzle said:

The max in Cardiff today has no connection with the max in London tomorrow!

You are correct

Hottest temp in Wales 30c in Llanfairfechan, with the foehn effect coming into play. The forecast temp there today was around 23c.

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, J10 said:

You are correct

Hottest temp in Wales 30c in Llanfairfechan, with the foehn effect coming into play. The forecast temp there today was around 23c.

Do the models struggle and underplay the Foehn effect then?

[Froze were the Days]

23 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Well 24’C is the summer average in London, so 27’C isn’t a huge stretch with high pressure in charge.

Not with those uppers and looks like a slight breeze possibly from the east or north east...I'd be surprised!

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Here is the Ecm mean... Not bad at all.. 

The ensembles clearly show the op being somewhat of an outlier regarding the pressure pattern. 

Edited June 28, 2019 by Mattwolves

[J10]

9 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Do the models struggle and underplay the Foehn effect then?

I think the GFS has struggled massively with this setup, and massively underdone temps. UKV was going for 25c today at 6pm for Conwy area and is going for 35c for London area for tomorrow.

Higher resolution models are better generally with on the ground detail, and so this is proving.

As for Foehn sometimes the models pick this up, but the higher resolution models are better. But IMO the maritime influence is the one that "the new improved" GFS is really struggling with .

Edited June 28, 2019 by J10

[Frosty.]

I agree tonight's Ecm 12z ensemble mean isn't bad at all, indeed it's rather good for southern uk for much of the time!