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Paul

Model output discussion - first hot, thundery plume of the summer

Paul

This thread = Models, models and more models
Please remember that this thread is for discussing the model output only. If you want to chat about the summer weather more generally, please use the Summer chat and moans thread.

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This evening the rain over northern Scotland should clear away as will the showers over N. Ireland and the north of England, But heavy thundery showers will quickly cross the Channel to effect effect east Wales, central southern and the north east of England. These could well be quite intense with some heavy downpours and plenty of lightning. Along with all of this the dew points will quite high

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2 hours ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

This is a weather enthusiasts forum though and given how high T850s are compared to what we usually get, people are going to analyse it to a great extent. 

absolutely.... this is a rare chance to beat the previous june record which i believe is 35.6c set in southanpton on june 28th 1976.

but i fear we will miss out, the synoptic pattern and size/strength of the high just wont hold ground long enough for the heat to build and any inversion to disipate under a steadier southeasterly flow.

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Looking at the ICON 12z it's an impressive looking plume but 2m temps are only into the mid 20's celsius range.... by saturday the core of the plume has pushed further east but saturday is hotter than friday further s / e...by sunday we are into a cooler / fresher but still pleasantly warm westerly air flow but much cooler further NW.

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Edited by Jon Snow

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1 hour ago, knocker said:

And we could also pop down to southern France  and spot the Med influence on 26C 850s 😮

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And for Saturday  I'll just throw in possible cloud from adjacent fronts. I'll get me coat.

This was even more noticeable with your previous comparison of Nimes and Ajaccio with the latter influenced by onshore flow from a 23°C Mediterranean. Also noting the very dry Saharan air at altitude then increasingly to lower levels, with a breeze things should become less oppressive.

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Nice icon still not sure about those mid 20c temperature predictions though! If we end up with NE/Estly airflow then yes temps will be suppressed towards Eastern areas. My guess here is its going to be sheltered Western areas, into the SW.. Perhaps the Midlands that could well be experiencing 30+c....i think I said on Sunday, it could be midweek before we nail this.... Well it could be Thursday before we are certain... Still alot to play for. 

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By sunday the ukmo 12h shows plumegate is over and the atlantic has won this particular battle..but not the war!!!!!!!!!!!!!👍😉

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Edited by Jon Snow

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Boom there it is... Just a favourable roll of the dice with wind direction and clear sky's and 30c will surely be breached. It may becoming to an end on Sunday... But for me this is merely only round 1....stay tuned for more on the plumegate scandal rocking the nation 😉😁

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Only 'recordgate' to go now, and it'll be touch-and-go for somewhere in the SE, where the toasty uppers mightn't go completely to waste:

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1 hour ago, mushymanrob said:

absolutely.... this is a rare chance to beat the previous june record which i believe is 35.6c set in southanpton on june 28th 1976.

but i fear we will miss out, the synoptic pattern and size/strength of the high just wont hold ground long enough for the heat to build and any inversion to disipate under a steadier southeasterly flow.

It is a confusing picture, the Meto (sorry if off topic) released a video today going for 30C on Wednesday over Southern Central areas and early/mid 30s for Thursday over the same places. Something has gotta give eventually. Latest GFS is ~8C lower for the same areas on Wednesday...

Perhaps this is one of those where human input is needed over the models with regards to surface temps.

Edited by Quicksilver1989

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5 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

It is a confusing picture, the Meto (sorry if off topic) released a video today going for 30C on Wednesday over Southern Central areas and early/mid 30s for Thursday over the same places. Something has gotta give eventually. Latest GFS is ~8C lower for the same areas on Wednesday...

And I think QS that is a fair reflection.... If these 30+c temps come off, we are gonna be doubting those 2m temperature predictions from the models for many years to come. Has it stands I don't think they will manually alter to much of the data they are receiving, and this could hold true of 2m temps.... I may be wrong on this... I'm not 100%

Edited by Mattwolves

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8 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

If these 30+c temps come off, we are gonna be doubting those 2m temperature predictions from the models for many years to come. 

It's been educational, makes one realise that plume doesn't necessarily = mid / high 30's celsius..still, compared to the garbage so far this summer, the models show the coming days looking very interesting unless you're near or on the East coast in which case you may be cursing the cool flow off the north sea with its filthy low cloud! 

Edited by Jon Snow

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41 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

By sunday the ukmo 12h shows plumegate is over and the atlantic has won this particular battle..but not the war!!!!!!!!!!!!!👍😉

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Not keen on UKMO  144 this evening..

Perilously close to mid Atlantic high ridging north and troughing becoming attached to our locale..

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9 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Not keen on UKMO  144 this evening..

Neither am I but I don't think an atlantic influence would last long since there is a signal for the azores high to ridge in and that could set up a summery early July.👍 

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The GEM also on schedule for some seriously warm uppers later this week... Note that yet again we are only seeing mid 20s on the 2m temps... If you were to tell someone that temps at 1500m are 20c and at ground level we have 24c,they would think you were insane! 

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I'm also slightly bemused by the modelled temperatures, here's the GFS at T3,

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It is wrong today, about 27C here in Oxfordshire, so that is 5C short.  So that doesn't give me confidence in the rest of the run!  Of course, this is the new FV3, so we don't know how it performs in summer setups, it was rumoured to be anomalously cold in the winter, although I thought they has done some work to fix that.  

Edit, old version is a bit better at same time.

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Edited by Mike Poole

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Models for me have been bob on so far, 20c here in Cheshire.

Let's hope those amazing uppers transform into amazing 2m temps.

Edited by Paul Faulkner

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Beyond plumegate the GEFS 12z mean indicates a predominantly north / south split with some azores ridge / high influence mainly for southern uk but more of an unsettled cooler atlantic regime across northern uk. This of course doesn't preclude further plumes or a major anticyclone but this 12z mean is a very mixed bag in the mid / longer range.

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GFS and Icon easily looking like lower to mid thirties to me on Friday. 25c uppers into the UK. The only fly in the oitment for this spell to me is the cloud cover. The last two days in my location have been endless cloud. We need that to dissapate to achieve high temps.  

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Looking at these uppers and how the tip of the 25c upper is situated, it will be no surprise to see the the south coast area recording the highest temps. Perhaps somewhere like Southampton or Bournmouth.

These areas will have the highest uppers. Of course, it depends on wind direction, speed and cloud cover.

Edited by matty007

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1 hour ago, Mike Poole said:

I'm also slightly bemused by the modelled temperatures, here's the GFS at T3,

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It is wrong today, about 27C here in Oxfordshire, so that is 5C short.  So that doesn't give me confidence in the rest of the run!  Of course, this is the new FV3, so we don't know how it performs in summer setups, it was rumoured to be anomalously cold in the winter, although I thought they has done some work to fix that.  

Edit, old version is a bit better at same time.

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Proof that these are cack. Forecast 22-23c here, it got to 26c here and at most of the weather stations in East Anglia (Mildenhall/Lakenheath/Norwich/Weybourne). If they can’t get it right at a few hours notice then I wouldn’t worry about days away.

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Sofa..so good..👍😍

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Edited by Jon Snow

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2 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Proof that these are cack. Forecast 22-23c here, it got to 26c here and at most of the weather stations in East Anglia (Mildenhall/Lakenheath/Norwich/Weybourne). If they can’t get it right at a few hours notice then I wouldn’t worry about days away.

Correct. We are achieveing 25-26c with 13c uppers, and virtually no sun or prior warming.

No reason to think that 35-36c is not possible with 20-25c uppers, more sun and warming over the week.

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6 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Proof that these are cack. Forecast 22-23c here, it got to 26c here and at most of the weather stations in East Anglia (Mildenhall/Lakenheath/Norwich/Weybourne). If they can’t get it right at a few hours notice then I wouldn’t worry about days away.

IMO the new GFS is struggling big time with the maratime influence on temps it doesn't seem to underdoing them in the continent where they are obviously not so big a factor.

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Ecm out to day 5...the heat is on... Just where and how intense is open to debate.... 30-35c surely... 

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