Model output discussion - first hot, thundery plume of the summer

[mb018538]

God i hope that ECM is barking up the wrong tree again...



Massive Greenland and Iceland block....again. Seriously, just do one!

NAO is favoured to tank yet again too. Just when we thought we might be seeing something of an end to all of this, it could rear its ugly head again.



Just for balance, GFS has nothing like the same at day 10:

[northwestsnow]

Less said about EC the better!

Still nice in the reliable timeframe but the model is hell bent on southerly tracking jet and northern blocking longer term.

Mean/ens will reveal more i guess.

Edited July 10, 2019 by northwestsnow

[knocker]

According to the ecm the transient ridge that looks like giving most a pretty good weekend quite quickly gives way under pressure from the Atlantic trough next week resulting in some more changeable weather, albeit nowt drastic

Edited July 10, 2019 by knocker

[knocker]

And the 5-10 anomaly is pretty much along the lines indicated by last evening's EPS

 

[Methuselah]

Ah, the GFS 00Z...still some heat, later on, but where's the strong UK-Euro-Scandi HP got to?

  

But, anywho, there nowt wrong with the GEFS ensembles:

   

   

To join a few of netweather's favourite cliches together: there are interesting times ahead and it's all to play for, but more runs are needed!

[Summer Sun]

47 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Less said about EC the better!

Still nice in the reliable timeframe but the model is hell bent on southerly tracking jet and northern blocking longer term.

Mean/ens will reveal more i guess.

Perhaps the changes shouldn't come as a huge surprise for now the ECM weekly has a strong signal for a wet spell wc 22nd

wc 29th is a bit drier in the south but still above average rain in Scotland, parts of NW England & Wales as well as NI and ROI

[Guest]

I don’t usually like to go against ECM but it does seem to have a bit of love affair with building Greeny heights at the moment and thus I think it’s being over boisterous with its handling of low pressure in the D7-8 range. While I’m not saying the big heat from later on in the GFS Ops run will happen I do think at least a continuation of fairly benign and summery conditions do appear likely well into next week for at least the south. Will be interesting where UKMO goes in its next couple of runs...

One thing to add, if GFS is anywhere near the mark later on its run this is now perfect timing for a heatwave in the third tercile of July. SSTs will be 2-3c higher than a few weeks back, ground nice and dry and primed for minimal waste of heating through evaporation and still plenty on incoming solar energy....just saying.....

Edited July 10, 2019 by Alderc

[knocker]

Moving into the ext period this morning with the mean EPS anomaly we are in pretty much expected territory

TPV over the western Arctic with subsidiary lobe N. Canada which again is in conjunction with ridge and positive anomalies over Greenland.All of which results in a westerly upper flow across the Atlantic to the UK portending changeable weather as the Pm and Tm airmasses phase and which the det runs will sort. This type pf pattern tends to favour A N/S split but generally temps perhaps nudging a tad above average

Edited July 10, 2019 by knocker

[Singularity]

Pretty strange to be seeing such a strong (and spatially large) -NAO blocking signal from ECM & EPS in the face of the negative trend to stratospheric temps and heights.

Only way I can think of to justify such a path is if the Nino standing wave collapses. Not out of the question, but ECM/EPS is known to have a weak bias with that phenomenon, and FV3 and UKMO are both very similar in their stance against it at +144, so for the time being, I'll put the big -NAO signal in in the 'suspicious' box.

With any luck for those who prefer temps in the mid-20s+ with lots of dry weather, it'll be FV3 leading the way with the initial signal for a Nino-style Atlantic trough west of Europe or UK + ridge to east of it, much as it did with respect to late June (never mind how much the detail across the UK adjusted!).

[danm]

144hrs is the key timeframe this morning. UKMO only goes out to 144, but shows the Azores high pushing NE towards the UK:

GFS shows the same, with high pressure extending north eastwards towards the UK at the same timeframe:

The ECM on the other hand shows low pressure digging SE towards the UK with the Azores high retreating:

 

The difference seems to be how the models handle that area of low pressure near Iceland. GFS/UKMO show it remaining to the west of Iceland, ECM has it digging SE towards the UK.

This will dictate how the second half of next week pans out. The weekend and Monday/Tuesday look good for most. 

[Summer Sun]

4 minutes ago, danm said:

144hrs is the key timeframe this morning. UKMO only goes out to 144, but shows the Azores high pushing NE towards the UK:

 

UKMO at t168 is better than ECM still a bit of patchy rain in the west but not as widespread as ECM has it

[MATTWOLVES 3]

ECM looking like the rogue of the pack this morning, not viewed the mean as yet. Gem on the other hand is a fairly good run from start to finish. 

[Frosty.]

Again there's some fantastic summery potential on the GEFS 0z longer term with a chance of plumes and anticyclonic spells!

[Methuselah]

And the suggestion of an upcoming possible plume is still there...plumetastically plumescent!

  

[Guest]

GFS wanting absolutely nothing to do with low pressure becoming the dominant force next week and again the 06Z brings in something more plumey around D9. While not as extreme its almost an exact copy of the late June plume with GFS persisting with the idea initially and being out on its own while ECM goes down another route. 

[h2005__uk__]

16 minutes ago, Alderc said:

GFS wanting absolutely nothing to do with low pressure becoming the dominant force next week and again the 06Z brings in something more plumey around D9. While not as extreme its almost an exact copy of the late June plume with GFS persisting with the idea initially and being out on its own while ECM goes down another route. 

The GFS temp charts at that period don't seem anything overly special. Do they need a while to catch up with what the wider synoptics show?

[Frosty.]

What a BEAUTY!!!!! ..and it's not the only one either!!!

 

Yeah Yeah it's late July..big deal...pfffttt

[Methuselah]

GEFS 12Z ensembles (despite the absence of anything too hot?) still look quite good.

  

  

The moaners must be searching high-and-low to find anything all that whinge-worthy?

[MATTWOLVES 3]

14 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

What a BEAUTY!!!!! ..and it's not the only one either!!!

 

Yeah Yeah it's late July..big deal...pfffttt

 Very nice Karl, but I think them temps will only suit Chris if they are the overnight lows...

[Frosty.]

I'm on plume watch, and with a GEFS 6z mean like this, there has got to be a chance of a plume during the final third of July!!

[MATTWOLVES 3]

There are quite a few warm ensembles from the 6z...i only found 2 that threaten hot conditions making inroads later this month.... Just for fun, but you never no!! 

Edited July 10, 2019 by Mattwolves

[Methuselah]

40 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

I'm on plume watch, and with a GEFS 6z mean like this, there has got to be a chance of a plume during the final third of July!!

Me too, Karl. I think we might even see a classic 'Plumesday' scenario develop...And I might even get the right run, next time I post ensembles!

[knocker]

It's been a warm and sunny day in these parts despite an almost total cover of Ci all day

[Frosty.]

A few nice charts from the ICON 12z which show a largely fine spell associated with high pressure during the weekend into early next week.

[SMU]

6 hours ago, Singularity said:

Pretty strange to be seeing such a strong (and spatially large) -NAO blocking signal from ECM & EPS in the face of the negative trend to stratospheric temps and heights.

Only way I can think of to justify such a path is if the Nino standing wave collapses. Not out of the question, but ECM/EPS is known to have a weak bias with that phenomenon, and FV3 and UKMO are both very similar in their stance against it at +144, so for the time being, I'll put the big -NAO signal in in the 'suspicious' box.

With any luck for those who prefer temps in the mid-20s+ with lots of dry weather, it'll be FV3 leading the way with the initial signal for a Nino-style Atlantic trough west of Europe or UK + ridge to east of it, much as it did with respect to late June (never mind how much the detail across the UK adjusted!).

Why are you putting it in the suspicious box when its been negative since April 26th-

It should be in the 'probable box'...

Also a paper was posted on here that research has shown the link & correlation between UK weather V Nino phase is less than originally touted in favour of Stratosphere & QBO phase