Model output discussion - first hot, thundery plume of the summer

[nick sussex]

Just now, Mattwolves said:

Thanks Nick... That's extreme heat to say the least. Just reading your post has made me switch me fan on. Seriously though, red warning! No laughing matter... A serious danger to the vunerables health.. Hopefully things will ease a bit for you before much longer mate..

Thanks , down here it’s been very hot , hitting 36 today . But I’m just thankful not to be having 40+.

The red warning for 4 departments is very unusual , I can’t remember seeing that before for heat since I’ve been in France .

 

[Snowy L]

Decent ending to the ECM with northern blocking disappearing as quickly as it appears. Hopefully the northerly "downgrades" in the next few runs with a flatter jet. It does really appear out of nowhere so hopefully ECM is over doing it.

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

36 minutes ago, knocker said:

A not so subtle change from the current pattern

The most worrying thing about this chart is the ridiculous warmth forecast over the arctic! 

Current arctic ice levels are running level with 2012 at the moment. Should these charts keep appearing, it will soon be placed into alarming territory. 

A poor UK summer seems to strongly favour rapid melt out in the arctic. 2007 and 2012 back this up. 

Edited June 27, 2019 by East_England_Stormchaser91

[Singularity]

Historically, those big Scandi troughs end to adjust east. Many promising winter northerlies have been lost from the modelling that way.

Next week, we also have a trigger low of sorts to be resolved. If that doesn’t scoot east from Canada, or it tracks further north, then we might stay fully under high pressure from the Azores anyway.

 

Regardless, more menacing output from an Arctic sea ice perspective. A dipole pattern of Canadian HP and N. Asian LP is among the hardest-hitting of all that are possible.

[mb018538]

My own personal opinion is that the cards being dealt to is towards mid month aren’t great, and probably point to disappointing weather for the UK. I won’t hang my hat on those ideas, but we will see how things pan out. I think we’d need to be quite lucky to not end up with a cooler and more unsettled regime.

[danm]

3 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

My own personal opinion is that the cards being dealt to is towards mid month aren’t great, and probably point to disappointing weather for the UK. I won’t hang my hat on those ideas, but we will see how things pan out. I think we’d need to be quite lucky to not end up with a cooler and more unsettled regime.

This is the UK. We can be guaranteed of a cooler, unsettled spell at some point. The question is how long would that last for. No indication yet of us returning to an entrenched cool/wet spell like early to mid June. Outlook shows Azores high ridging in, but it’s position waxing and waning to give us a a mix of warm, sunny weather and cooler, showery weather. I.e. a typical British summer weather pattern. 

[Mark wheeler]

We’ve up the ante tonight. 

Ps , This is due Saturday. Could it go higher I wonder ? 

Edited June 27, 2019 by Mark wheeler

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

13 minutes ago, Mark wheeler said:

We’ve up the ante tonight. 

You can add a 3 to that 34 figure.

[Man With Beard]

1 hour ago, mb018538 said:

My own personal opinion is that the cards being dealt to is towards mid month aren’t great, and probably point to disappointing weather for the UK. I won’t hang my hat on those ideas, but we will see how things pan out. I think we’d need to be quite lucky to not end up with a cooler and more unsettled regime.

Looking at the latest ensembles, yes they've ditched the plume idea for next weekend and generally fairly cool, but not particularly wet. Suggests a period dominated by an Atlantic High. Nice if you just want some sun, not really cutting it for warm evenings and beach weather. 

However, a little caveat which @Singularity alluded to - these set ups normally get corrected east rather than west don't they - and any eastward correction will probably improve temperatures. Anywhere sat under a high at this time of year will heat up before long.

Having said all this, who knows, maybe they'll go back to another plume tomorrow

[Mapantz]

UKV model is showing 23 to 25°C at 9am on Saturday, covering quite a wide area. Plenty of 33's and 34's showing from London, up in to Cambridge & Kings Lynn in the afternoon, so a 35°C very possible.

[Sky Full]

Just for the sake of interest, really, a chart from the GFS showing no rain anywhere in the UK for the next six hours:

Thats not something you see every day - in fact I wonder if there has been another day this year when the above chart would have been showing?  Seems unlikely.....but possibly in February?

[shaky]

Just now, Mapantz said:

UKV model is showing 23 to 25°C at 9am on Saturday, covering quite a wide area. Plenty of 33's and 34's showing from London, up in to Cambridge & Kings Lynn in the afternoon, so a 35°C very possible.

How are the temps looking for the midlands mate?arpege gives us around 32 degrees!!

[Mike Poole]

ICON 18z T24 has the +24C isotherm into the south, I can't remember ever having seen this since I started watching the models...

I think given the starting point - today, we got to 25/26C in Oxfordshire, again higher by some margin than GFS was predicting, and fine weather due tomorrow.  I wonder even despite the easterly cool flow at the surface this far, if Saturday could be more impressive than we've thought? 

[Dean E]

43 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

ICON 18z T24 has the +24C isotherm into the south, I can't remember ever having seen this since I started watching the models...

I think given the starting point - today, we got to 25/26C in Oxfordshire, again higher by some margin than GFS was predicting, and fine weather due tomorrow.  I wonder even despite the easterly cool flow at the surface this far, if Saturday could be more impressive than we've thought? 

GFS 18z has a 850's +25°C isotherm over the SW at 5am tomorrow morning. Pretty incredible spell.

Settled the name of the game for the weekend and into next week. Few showers appearing in Northern areas early next week, but at this stage, East Anglia, South East and South West could stay dry most of next week!

A welcome rest-bite from such a wet June overall.

[Connor Bailey Degnan]

According to the 18z, +25 uppers could have already happened this evening. An historic day of weather even if such extreme values at 850hpa aren't being felt at the surface.

[mb018538]

8 minutes ago, Connor Bailey Degnan said:

According to the 18z, +25 uppers could have already happened this evening. An historic day of weather even if such extreme values at 850hpa aren't being felt at the surface.

Such a shame we had a couple of days of easterly winds to go with these 850s. If we’d had 2/3 days set up like Saturday with a straight southerly then the June record would have gone without doubt. So near yet so far! A very slim chance still on Saturday, but you’d think 32-34c seems more likely. Still pretty good going.

[StormChaseUK]

If it wasnt for that green rubbish we would be having an amazing 2018 style July.

Shame Iceland cant just explode with Volcanic ash and heat up the atmosphere enough to make the Green crap go away. Joking aside that is a pretty good outlook , few minor changes could see what we have all hoped for.

[knocker]

The unique pattern currently effecting the UK will continue to evolve over the next couple of days. This is illustrated quite well by the movement of the 850mb temp plume as it pushes north and then east under pressure from the Atlantic, before exiting stage right Saturday evening. Apart from the quite marked regional variation of the temps this movement results in potentially some very high max temps over parts of central and eastern England on Saturday

The NH 500mb profile and the Atlantic surface analysis for midnight and the Camborne sounding

The strong winds currently effecting the south west will slowly abate during the day although remaining quite breezy along the Channel coast. Elsewhere, once early morning Stratus has cleared central and eastern areas it will be sunny and a very warm day in some areas, the exception being eastern coastal regions, particular if any low cloud lingers.

Tonight the low cloud will return to eastern regions and high cloud will start to creep into the west courtesy of a cold front associated with the low pressure area to the west of Ireland. Maybe even a few bits and bobs of rain in the Western Isles

Through Saturday the front makes slow progress with possibly some thundery outbreaks in the NW and W but further to the east a very sunny day beckons with very hot temps from the get go as noted by the temps at 1000. Potentially in the mid 30s in some places by mid afternoon.

Over Saturday night and through Sunday the ridge is finally shunted east as the Atlantic and the trough to the west gain momentum. Thus the cold front clears into the North Sea and much cooler air is introduced over the whole of the UK. There could be some thundery outbreaks over N. Ireland and Scotland overnight, courtesy of a follow up occlusion and trough.

By Monday low pressure is dominating proceedings with a the UK in a brisk north westerly with some showers as an occlusion tracks south east

By Tuesday the Atlantic subtropical high is starting to ridge once again and there will be some showers in the north courtesy of a little stray occlusion whilst the south will be dry and sunny

 

 

Edited June 28, 2019 by knocker

[knocker]

What of the rest of the week with the gfs? The key feature would appear to be the TPV to the NE and associated trough stretching west over Iceland. This suppresses any notion the subtropical high has of sustaining any amplification

But of course this doesn't dictate the detail and Wed/Thurs should be reasonable days, particularly in the south, before a low arrives on Friday

 

Edited June 28, 2019 by knocker

[knocker]

Current satellite

[johnholmes]

Confirmed that the low St is here!

[mushymanrob]

18 hours ago, mb018538 said:

Ties in with NOAA 8-14 day outlook:



Sadly there are very strong polar heights and +ve Greenland heights, as well as most of the high latitudes. Could just be a matter of time before we get stuck in a rut again, let's hope not eh.

i dont see that chart as a bad chart, nor something to worry about. a steady mean upper westerly flow with slightly +ive heights , looks like a pretty decent enough chart, a lot of fine summers conditions, not very wet, chances of a plume albeit transitory (note the negative heights west of iberia) . compared to the dull wet conditions that we have had for a large part of june - thatll do me nicely!

[knocker]

Once we are into a more fluid westerly pattern next week the ecm also has the TPV northern Scandinavia as a key feature with another trough tracking east from the tip of Greenland to phase with it/

Edited June 28, 2019 by knocker

[Methuselah]

With the exceptions of T850 scatter and very little precipitation, the GEFS 00Z ensembles seem pretty average, to me:

  

  

Though, I suspect that something 'exciting' must be lurking in the woodshed somewhere, and that 'average' will not prevail for too long?

[h2005__uk__]

9 hours ago, Mapantz said:

UKV model is showing 23 to 25°C at 9am on Saturday, covering quite a wide area. Plenty of 33's and 34's showing from London, up in to Cambridge & Kings Lynn in the afternoon, so a 35°C very possible.

Where can I see the UKV model please? Had a look but can't find it.