Model output discussion - first hot, thundery plume of the summer

[chapmanslade]

5 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

I can't help thinking if we had an exact repeat of this week in late July or August, it would be much hotter.

I can't help thinking if we had an exact repeat of this week in late July or August it would be much the same as it will be this week.

The surface temperature 'I can't believe it's not hotter, the GFS is broken' type stuff really has been done to death now. Can we move on ?

[Methuselah]

Well, I think that, post Saturday, the 12Z offers some real hope of a longish spell clement weather...neither too hot nor too cold? Even right at the end, things look okay...

  

[Frosty.]

7 minutes ago, chapmanslade said:

I can't help thinking if we had an exact repeat of this week in late July or August it would be much the same as it will be this week.

The surface temperature 'I can't believe it's not hotter, the GFS is broken' type stuff really has been done to death now. Can we move on ?

It was only my opinion, yes let's move on, never said the GFS was broken either..for the record!!

Edited June 25, 2019 by Jon Snow

[MATTWOLVES 3]

1 minute ago, chapmanslade said:

I can't help thinking if we had an exact repeat of this week in late July or August it would be much the same as it will be this week.

The surface temperature 'I can't believe it's not hotter, the GFS is broken' type stuff really has been done to death now. Can we move on ?

Its merely discussing the models though! To have such high uppers with such low surface temps was always going to be a major talking point!! This is something that rarely happens so I would imagine it would serve to act as a good learning curve for future events... 

[Alexis]

22 minutes ago, StormChaseUK said:

Ahhhh  

The warmer air in 1995 covers a much broader area .  In 2019 it's a narrow wedge of warm air surrounded by cool air.

Bit like having 1 room with heating on in your house and wondering why the entire house is still only showing 10C on thermometer.

When cool interjects from both sides, it doesn't matter if the uppers are 15C or 25C the overall surface temps will be average. 

That's like saying London won't be hot because it's cold in Lerwick.

[StormChaseUK]

2 minutes ago, Alexis said:

That's like saying London won't be hot because it's cold in Lerwick.

Cool NE winds are within 100 miles of London

Lerwick is 769 miles from London

 

[Mapantz]

Some of you really need to move on from this upper/surface temp debacle. It's getting warmer for many, and likely to be hot for some on Friday and Saturday. Go out and enjoy it! 

[Methuselah]

The 12Z GEFS ensembles also look okay, with only 2 days forecast to not exceed 20C.

  

  

Even the gradual fall in SLP is reserved for FI...

[Frosty.]

Good news from the GEFS 12z mean, as with the 6z there is increasing support for strong azores ridging and therefore a higher chance of becoming anticyclonic for the early part of July, perhaps even longer and becoming warmer, especially further south as you would expect.

Edited June 25, 2019 by Jon Snow

[MATTWOLVES 3]

I have news for you this evening.... The good news is the Spanish plume is well on the way. 

The bad news is.... The temperatures are being left behind in Spain.....

Edited June 25, 2019 by Mattwolves

[Frosty.]

2 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

I have news for you this evening.... The good news is the Spanish plume is well on the way. 

The bad news is.... The temperatures are being left behind in Spain.....

And France

[mb018538]

I think it’s time we all forgot about the phantom plume of 2019. Looked amazing a week ago, in reality it’s going to be one or two hot days with nothing out of the ordinary. Maybe a 32/33c maxmimum In then SE Saturday.

Whats important now is how July is shaping up - and as things stand it looks really promising. Azores high building in, lower humidity, more sun. Much more like 2018. In 7-10 days time we could be looking at a really decent spell of weather. I think we’d all take that after the rain and gloom of June?

[MATTWOLVES 3]

 Can't complain with this folks.. 

Things looking very peachy by day 6...

[StormChaseUK]

13 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

I think it’s time we all forgot about the phantom plume of 2019. Looked amazing a week ago, in reality it’s going to be one or two hot days with nothing out of the ordinary. Maybe a 32/33c maxmimum In then SE Saturday.

Whats important now is how July is shaping up - and as things stand it looks really promising. Azores high building in, lower humidity, more sun. Much more like 2018. In 7-10 days time we could be looking at a really decent spell of weather. I think we’d all take that after the rain and gloom of June?

What do you mean forget the plume? it starts tomorrow at 3pm, then ends at 3.01pm 

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

21 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

I have news for you this evening.... The good news is the Spanish plume is well on the way. 

The bad news is.... The temperatures are being left behind in Spain.....

zzzzzzzzz we know that. Too much time spent looking to the south we didn't see what was creeping behind from the NE because we had our backs turned. Hoping the heat hangs on for longer in Europe just like it did in 2003 when finally tapped in to it in August.

Edited June 25, 2019 by 38.5*C

[MATTWOLVES 3]

1 minute ago, StormChaseUK said:

What do you mean forget the plume? it starts tomorrow at 3pm, then ends at 3.01pm 

Let's just agree that it's gonna warm up and in places it will feel like summer even... And now we look to the future.... The future is bright... The future is ECM... its also orange... High pressure I tell ya.....

[StormChaseUK]

Think I'd take this over what we have now on ECM

[northwestsnow]

An extended mainly dry spell for the UK looks likely this evening.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Just now, StormChaseUK said:

Think I'd take this over what we have now on ECM

Aye, some of the days this Wimbledon, could feel summerier than the plume

[Frosty.]

Looking at the Ecm 12z for fri / sat..at least it will be warm!

Edited June 25, 2019 by Jon Snow

[northwestsnow]

Increasingly warmer as we head through next week on EC det-

Very warm air close to the south coast by day 9-

I wonder if there is a cut off low beginning to form to our SW to pump up that southerly air?

Edited June 25, 2019 by northwestsnow

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Good start..... Even better ending, has NWS just pointed out... Yeh Boyyyyyyyyyyy

[Frosty.]

Nice high next week

Edited June 25, 2019 by Jon Snow

[northwestsnow]

Considering the position we found ourselves in from late May until late June the turnaround looking at the NWP is wonderful for those wanting some summer weather, the DET ends on a fine note -

We can assume (if the EC is accurate) the 1st week of July will be settled- and turning warmer again as a plume again pushes north out of Spain.

I'm chuffed for the world cup cricketers and fans, hopefully they can enjoy the game with no rain spoiling things.

[Singularity]

  

Very promising signals for the opening week(s) of July if you enjoy an abundance of very warm to hot weather.

Although Arctic blocking proves astonishingly persistent, the Nino standing wave (evident by the yellow shading around the dateline on the leftmost image), having fully subdued the trade wind burst (something the models didn't see coming; even the mighty EPS had the deep blue shading spanning approx 120 E to 150 W for the end of June), is able to set up amplified subtropical ridging across the UK and at times into N. Europe too.

This standing wave looks weak enough to allow for some lengthier settled spells under extended subtropical ridging than if we had a stronger one; that would likely force troughs to drop down to the southwest of the UK, build heat across us, and then break that heat down - the same sequence as we're currently seeing in response to the MJO boosting the Nino standing wave in recent days.

That's not to say there'd be such extreme heat trying to move in, or an unusual ridge deflecting the worst of it away for several days for that matter, but an extended subtropical ridging spell such as ECM shows will serve to temporarily push the current very hot airmass down toward southern parts of Europe for a few days, then - unless the ridge behaves unusually for a Nino forcing setup and stays west of the UK - start to draw it back north again, across W. Europe with another shot at moving across the UK.

With all this in mind, really worth paying attention to how the charts are shaping up for mid-late next week, if you're a fan of, or struggle with, hot summer weather.