Model output discussion - first hot, thundery plume of the summer

[BlueHedgehog074]

Models please guys. Cheers! 

We don’t want to have to unlock our puny dungeon and throw you inside. The conditions in there are much, much, much worse than the current weather outside! ?

Edit: Thanks to a message from someone, just to also add, anyone who tries to stir up trouble in here and deliberately brings the mood of the thread down, could get locked up in that little, smelly, dark room for a while.

Edited June 25, 2019 by DiagonalRedLine

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Icon plume alert latest... +24c uppers with maximum highs of 24c.....are you having a laugh....

[Mr Frost]

It is only a matter of time for us in the UK and Ireland...most of Europe is currently in the oven! (Many of us will be on Thursday, Friday and Saturday)

Hopefully July brings something like this...

Lots to look forward to if you are a fan of warm/hot and sunny weather in the short term and perhaps long term. 

[Frosty.]

15 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Icon plume alert latest... +24c uppers with maximum highs of 24c.....are you having a laugh....

It's pretty much identical to the ICON 6z..it's a plume jim but not as we know it..maybe it's not a plume at all, it's certainly raised a few eyebrows..I will certainly Klingon to the belief that the 2m max temps will adjust higher as we approach T+0 hours!

Edited June 25, 2019 by Jon Snow

[MATTWOLVES 3]

10 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

It's pretty much identical to the ICON 6z..it's a plume jim but not as we know it..maybe it's not a plume at all, it's certainly raised a few eyebrows..I will certainly Klingon to the belief that the 2m max temps will adjust higher as we approach T+0 hours!

Yep, I'm feeling confident we can still add a few degrees to those temperatures.... Icon finishing not to bad.... Can I see the Azores ridge coming into play....

[MATTWOLVES 3]

To plume or not to plume..... One thing that is gathering momentum, is the increase in heights next week.... So perhaps that should take the sting out of us feeling miserable over the non responsive temperatures... Things looking decidedly summary moving forward. 

Edited June 25, 2019 by Mattwolves

[StormChaseUK]

1 hour ago, Mattwolves said:

Icon plume alert latest... +24c uppers with maximum highs of 24c.....are you having a laugh....

Wonder what the record for the lowest surface temp and combined upper temp are.   UK might be about to break that record

[I remember Atlantic 252]

2 hours ago, StormChaseUK said:

Yes looks like the strong winds in the SW will keep it cool and the NE sea the other side the country does the same.

UK wasn't really designed for plumes or hot weather.

 

Aye, Sat and Sun look best days here, more of a SW breeze, instead of chilly dull easterly off the cold sea, brrrrrrrrr

[MIKE LEVITT]

coolish summer continuing then.

[knocker]

Possibility of storms on the cold front on Saturday?

Edited June 25, 2019 by knocker

[MATTWOLVES 3]

15 minutes ago, StormChaseUK said:

Wonder what the record for the lowest surface temp and combined upper temp are.   UK might be about to break that record

Bizzare set up.... Look at this chart from 95..june 30th...temos of 33.8c were recored with uppers of around 15c..its the other way round this time...

[Midlander]

7 minutes ago, knocker said:

Possibility of storms on the cold front on Saturday?

After last nights disgrace, I wouldn't hold my breath!

[Frosty.]

The Gem 12z ends on a High notE!

Edited June 25, 2019 by Jon Snow

[Methuselah]

GFS at T+240 is a bit of a stonker! And, it ties in well the the ECMWF...

 

[Snowyowl9]

21 minutes ago, AppleUK 123 said:

After last nights disgrace, I wouldn't hold my breath!

It use to happen with a cold front coming in from the west,looks too weak here so not expecting much of breakdown at all.

Thunderstorms seems to be getting harder and harder to forecast these days.

[knocker]

24 minutes ago, AppleUK 123 said:

After last nights disgrace, I wouldn't hold my breath!

What precisely do you mean by that?

[Earthshine]

2 hours ago, Mr Frost said:

It is only a matter of time for us in the UK and Ireland...most of Europe is currently in the oven! (Many of us will be on Thursday, Friday and Saturday)

Hopefully July brings something like this...

Lots to look forward to if you are a fan of warm/hot and sunny weather in the short term and perhaps long term. 

Yep currently in France and forecast is for 40°C on Thursday don't think I've experienced heat like it (along with a "feels like" temperature of 45°C).

[StormChaseUK]

31 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Bizzare set up.... Look at this chart from 95..june 30th...temos of 33.8c were recored with uppers of around 15c..its the other way round this time...

 

Ahhhh  

The warmer air in 1995 covers a much broader area .  In 2019 it's a narrow wedge of warm air surrounded by cool air.

Bit like having 1 room with heating on in your house and wondering why the entire house is still only showing 10C on thermometer.

When cool interjects from both sides, it doesn't matter if the uppers are 15C or 25C the overall surface temps will be average. 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

10 minutes ago, knocker said:

What precisely do you mean by that?

I think perhaps he is making reference to a lack of storm activity. Can't complain here.. Plenty of flash and bangs, and a real deluge. Storms are very hit and miss. So i can't really see what there is to complain about. 

Edited June 25, 2019 by Mattwolves

[Mapantz]

3 minutes ago, StormChaseUK said:

When cool interjects from both sides, it doesn't matter if the uppers are 15C or 25C the overall surface temps will be average. 

Where are you getting these statements from?? This is just not true! It might be wise to check out some of the weather guides in the learning part of the forum. There's a ton of good posts by members on here that go in to more detail.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

3 minutes ago, StormChaseUK said:

Ahhhh  

The warmer air in 1995 covers a much broader area .  In 2019 it's a narrow wedge of warm air surrounded by cool air.

Bit like having 1 room with heating on in your house and wondering why the entire house is still only showing 10C on thermometer.

When cool interjects from both sides, it doesn't matter if the uppers are 15C or 25C the overall surface temps will be average. 

Yes well that's one way of looking at it... You could also say that we had clear blue sky's allowing the temperatures to sky rocket. Even back then cloud on the East Coast was suppressing temps to mid teens on the coast... This is a similar set up... If we can get cloud clearance from the word go temps will fly up! 

[Midlander]

12 minutes ago, knocker said:

What precisely do you mean by that?

I've sent you a sticky note, explaining what I mean.

[Frosty.]

3 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Yes well that's one way of looking at it... You could also say that we had clear blue sky's allowing the temperatures to sky rocket. Even back then cloud on the East Coast was suppressing temps to mid teens on the coast... This is a similar set up... If we can get cloud clearance from the word go temps will fly up! 

I can't help thinking if we had an exact repeat of this week in late July or August, it would be much hotter.

[Snowyowl9]

With the exceptional looking charts a few ago with heat and thunderstorm potential it has actually turned into a well below average in terms of thunder and much else besides very heavy rain, we`ll await Thursday to Saturday but as explained above by stormchase its turning out to be really surpressed temps,and theres much more of a NEly coming in all the way down the north sea.

Looking out we may even have a settled spell incoming, after a few cooler westerlies odd showers although it could be a cooler high like in august 2007 settled spell.

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/avnpanel1.html

[StormChaseUK]

9 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

Where are you getting these statements from?? This is just not true! It might be wise to check out some of the weather guides in the learning part of the forum. There's a ton of good posts by members on here that go in to more detail.

Oh so the temperatures will be 35C+ then over the next few days and the uppers are correct and the NE/SW cooling influence from either side plays no part at all.