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Possibly severe heat wave looming for 25th to 29th June, also some local severe storms


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Can anyone think of a potential hot spell that has been so downgraded ? The Met Office were really taking note of possibilities because they released a youtube video addressing their concerns for this

Not much chance of high temperatures this week now,only Saturday. Extremely wet now seriously wet after this morning, wettest month in living memory at 231mm smashed the previous record of july 2

So for the record, Heathrow and Northolt reported 34.0 C on Saturday 29th. The 576 dm thickness contour passed through parts of East Anglia on its way to its current location in central Europe. In Fra

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So if Heathrow hits 28C for 3 days while everyone else gets a few degrees above average, is that a heatwave? Most of the UK has been nothing like a heatwave yet - no emergency hydration, no relaxed working restrictions, no melting roads, no special health checks by social services. There's a reason for having a definition. The 25C+ weather today has only covered a small percentage of the country and I have not even seen a complaint about not being able to sleep yet. To call that a heatwave is ridiculous. If tomorrow's predicted weather were to occur for 5 days, then I'd accept parts of England had had a heat wave. Currently, Porthmadog has had a nice week! A heat wave is something where you struggle to go about your normal business. It's been below average and pleasantly fresh over much of the country all week.

 

https://www.britannica.com/science/heat-wave-meteorology

No formal, standardized definition of a heat wave exists. The World Meteorological Organization defines it as five or more consecutive days during which the daily maximum temperature surpasses the average maximum temperature by 5 °C (9 °F) or more. Some countries have adopted their own standards.

 

 

 

Edited by Aleman
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As many said before the spell began, it was an unusual setup. I guess the lesson learned at all levels of forecasting would be something like this ... if the regional wind is a strong factor (over and above your standard sea breeze mechanics) then the uppers may not fully function at the surface. I don't think anyone would claim that the North Sea had a direct influence on temperatures in Wales or the southwest, but even there this regional wind was strong enough to moderate the potential heat. If the gradient had been similar but half the strength, temperatures might have risen above 30 for the past two days (in those areas at least). So tomorrow will be interesting as the gradients are weaker and the flow is more south to southwest. This time it could be cloud spoiling the party for some locations. Bet we will see some 33-35 readings though. 

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I have little confidence in any type of record going tomorrow. I think London will reach some annoying temperature like 29.9°C and that will be the hottest for England this summer, then more northerlies til September.

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1 hour ago, Aleman said:

So if Heathrow hits 28C for 3 days while everyone else gets a few degrees above average, is that a heatwave? Most of the UK has been nothing like a heatwave yet - no emergency hydration, no relaxed working restrictions, no melting roads, no special health checks by social services. There's a reason for having a definition. The 25C+ weather today has only covered a small percentage of the country and I have not even seen a complaint about not being able to sleep yet. To call that a heatwave is ridiculous. If tomorrow's predicted weather were to occur for 5 days, then I'd accept parts of England had had a heat wave. Currently, Porthmadog has had a nice week! A heat wave is something where you struggle to go about your normal business. It's been below average and pleasantly fresh over much of the country all week.

 

https://www.britannica.com/science/heat-wave-meteorology

No formal, standardized definition of a heat wave exists. The World Meteorological Organization defines it as five or more consecutive days during which the daily maximum temperature surpasses the average maximum temperature by 5 °C (9 °F) or more. Some countries have adopted their own standards.

25c temperatures were today recorded over most of Wales, SW England (excluding Cornwall), NW England, W Scotland and parts of Norther Ireland, that is not a small percentage of the UK.

It covered more of an area, than is often the case when London gets a warm spell, and NW Britain is stuck under damp and drizzly conditions.  

All 4 countries in the UK had 25c which is not something that happens every day, so when tomorrow it hits over 30c in the South East, it will largely confined to England.

Locally I am not that bothered if we have technically received a heatwave, all i know is that the weather has been stunning for the past 3 days, with another decent day (at least) expected tomorrow.

Edited by J10
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Current conditions are by no means exceptional, indeed preety average given we are nearly into July - high pressure directly overhead would have given higher more widespread maxima, Yes its been warm here, mid 20s but nothing unusual. Tomorrow could deliver a localised 34 degrees to Heathrow which indeed is notable, and form a number of places 30 degrees could be breached, these are notable readings, but a one day wonder, not a heatwave or sustained warm spell, temps by Monday will be below average for many, average at very best. 

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5 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

2006.

Depends on whether you use CET or look at the UK as a whole:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-45399134

The original statement implied heatwaves are getting shorter when they aren't. Plumes have always been short but nowadays are often a bit hotter. Cold days during Summer are becoming rarer and summer minima in particular are rising sharply. 2018 was persistently warm / hot, something which is uncommon in the UK. 

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34C should be easily reached in the London area - I doubt it will even be that localised.

We will have a good idea by around 7-8am whether we will see the June record challenged by how quickly the temperature starts to rise.

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00z CMC analysis shows 576 dm thickness to just north of London and various models predict it will remain over southeast England to mid-afternoon. Core of upper high while somewhat eroded is over northeast France now. 

Heavy to severe storms have developed along quasi-stationary frontal boundary in southeast Ireland. This may eventually spread further east although motion at present is northerly. 

Satellite imagery shows a weak remnant of frontal boundary further east that is separate from the above and into the Bristol and eastern Wales region, this could become a separate focus for other storms to develop later. Motion will be very slow to east for most of the morning then somewhat faster by afternoon. 

Interesting day ahead. 

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12 hours ago, kold weather said:

Anyone have an idea for largest summer time durinal shift? I've gotta think we may see quite an impressive change tomorrow.

Likely to be small in some parts of the West, 17.4c minimum, with max temps likely to be low twenties.

Totally agree thought about your general point.

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First signs of the dying cold front edging in from the west here. That may prevent 30c if there's too much cloud.

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GFS was spot on today with its 28C forecast.

Cloud has arrived in the last hour and the radar shows an active but thin front just clearing Manchester so it should all be over with a sharp shower in an hour or two.

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22 hours ago, J10 said:

Looking at the Weatheronline data, https://www.weatheronline.co.uk/weather/maps/current?LANG=en&UP=0&R=310&TYP=tmax&ART=tabelle&LANG=en&DATE=1561748400&KEY=UK&LAND=UK&CONT=ukuk&SORT=3&SI=mph&CEL=C&UD=0  over 15 sites might hit the Heatwave criteria tomorrow. (with 3 days over the threshold criteria), with many of these being in the West, this is probably unlikely but something to keep an eye on.

In addition to that some of the sites hitting 25c today included Aviemore, Capel Curig, Altnharra and Lossiemouth, something which does not happen every day.

For those interested, (proably no one) 

It looks as if official 7 sites broke the temperature threshold for 3 consecutive days.

image.png.76f6a8bd256f46d89ca5177ec0f2d3e3.png

 

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So for the record, Heathrow and Northolt reported 34.0 C on Saturday 29th. The 576 dm thickness contour passed through parts of East Anglia on its way to its current location in central Europe. In France, a 40 deg reading came as close to Paris as Conneré northeast of Le Mans, with other readings of 41 C in central France, and it was 43.2 at Zaragoza, Spain.

There were humidex readings as high as 49 at Ruffiac southeast of Bordeaux and 47 in the Le Mans region. 

At 00z Sunday 30th, the core of the upper high (596 dm) had retreated back into northwest Africa but the 576 dm thickness wave was as far north as northern Holland, while a local 580 dm max was noted in northeast France.

Safe to say that this was more of a memorable event on the continent than in the UK, but at least it broke the upper air record value. If we get a reload of these synoptics with perhaps weaker surface flows (especially sourced from the east) it may be a different story. For a reload I would suggest late July into mid-August as the most likely time frame, chances are certainly not high but it may not be the only (near or actual) heat wave of summer 2019. 

Storm production was fairly weak, but some parts of eastern Ireland had a good display of lightning earlier Saturday.

 

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I don’t pay too much attention to ‘record’ readings when in an isolated spot.  Most SE regions were more like 32c which was fabulous and more representative.  Heathrow is nigh on always highlighted as the hotspot location....just like Redhill was a noted SE ‘cold spot’ due to the weather station being positioned in Redhill aerodrome.  that one was scrapped a few years back.

 

BFTP

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