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Possibly severe heat wave looming for 25th to 29th June, also some local severe storms


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Someone on another thread suggested predicting the week's maximum temperatures - well here's my first stab:

Monday 29C - London area

Tuesday 29C - London area

Wednesday 32C - South coast

Thursday 35C - South coast 

Friday 37C - NW Wales

Saturday 39C - London area

?

 

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Can anyone think of a potential hot spell that has been so downgraded ? The Met Office were really taking note of possibilities because they released a youtube video addressing their concerns for this

Not much chance of high temperatures this week now,only Saturday. Extremely wet now seriously wet after this morning, wettest month in living memory at 231mm smashed the previous record of july 2

So for the record, Heathrow and Northolt reported 34.0 C on Saturday 29th. The 576 dm thickness contour passed through parts of East Anglia on its way to its current location in central Europe. In Fra

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Exact timing dependent however i think weds-thurs or weds-fri depending on model outcome looks to be the peak of the heat.

I will go for the maximum temperature to be 35C on thurs or fri and probably Cheltenham.

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I have returned the word "severe" to the thread title after upgrades to guidance earlier today.

Tracking the heat, beginning to show up now in southern Spain, highest reading I can see earlier today was 35 C at Andujar, the 576 dm thickness (which will reach central England) is hovering near the south coast of Spain.

To give some perspective, in North America the 576 dm thickness today was situated in northern Missouri, despite a lot of cloud and wet ground from recent heavy rains, temperatures reached 30 C. 

I notice that the ECM is pushing the core of the heat significantly further west than the GFS or GEM by Friday. The frontal storms on Saturday are now looking like a potentially severe outbreak for west-central England and south Wales into Midlands. 

Unlike 2015 I don't think this will be the only hot spell of the summer, but with these parameters it may be the most severe. 

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Also, to avoid confusion, this is not the official contest thread for top temperatures, in case anyone enters a forecast here thinking they are in that thread, nope, it is in another thread, look for an orange-brown header above the text on your screen and click on that to get to the right place. But that said, I think the top reading will be 38.7 somewhere in greater London. 

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if you want an idea of the cooler effect of a NE or E wind for the East coast, check out the expected conditions on the East Coast

for those people wanting to escape the heatwave.. i'm seeing values of only 17 to 19c, a breeze off the North Sea, so the feel like temperature is really quite pleasant. Check out Great Yarmouth, Norfolk for example

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I am so excited about the heat. Even near Manchester where we’ll probably maybe not even see 30 degrees but I’m hoping records tumble. Hoping we can get a good 39 degrees. 

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Downgrade continuing with any uncomfortable heat moved back to next Saturday. Looking quite pleasant now for next week once the rain is out of the way.

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2 hours ago, The PIT said:

Downgrade continuing with any uncomfortable heat moved back to next Saturday. Looking quite pleasant now for next week once the rain is out of the way.

Yes, east of the Pennines is going to have a keen wind off the north sea for most of the week,as it stands.

West of the hills will be warmer imho.

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9 hours ago, Roger J Smith said:

Also, to avoid confusion, this is not the official contest thread for top temperatures, in case anyone enters a forecast here thinking they are in that thread, nope, it is in another thread, look for an orange-brown header above the text on your screen and click on that to get to the right place. But that said, I think the top reading will be 38.7 somewhere in greater London. 

Have to say i disagree Roger, 34-35c looking the reality IMO.

Still very hot though and way too hot for me.

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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2 hours ago, The PIT said:

Downgrade continuing with any uncomfortable heat moved back to next Saturday. Looking quite pleasant now for next week once the rain is out of the way.

Sorry but i disagree, models are firming on Wednesday being the start of the hot and humid air for southern areas with this getting transfered northwards and westwards by Thursday. Places in Central and western parts could definately see the low 30s and localised affects like places in SW Scotland and NW Scotland could hit 30C also by Friday. 

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Unimpressed really, what looked like a record breaking spell of extreme heat and humidity now seems to be moving further away with each day and I'm now beginning to become convinced that we may not even see any exceptionally high temperatures? The GFS AND ECM runs this morning haven't given me much to be excited about. 

Do we think they will ramp up again? 

Would love it to atleast break the June record one of the days, most likely next Saturday judging by recent forecasts.

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9 hours ago, Roger J Smith said:

I have returned the word "severe" to the thread title after upgrades to guidance earlier today.

Tracking the heat, beginning to show up now in southern Spain, highest reading I can see earlier today was 35 C at Andujar, the 576 dm thickness (which will reach central England) is hovering near the south coast of Spain.

To give some perspective, in North America the 576 dm thickness today was situated in northern Missouri, despite a lot of cloud and wet ground from recent heavy rains, temperatures reached 30 C. 

I notice that the ECM is pushing the core of the heat significantly further west than the GFS or GEM by Friday. The frontal storms on Saturday are now looking like a potentially severe outbreak for west-central England and south Wales into Midlands. 

Unlike 2015 I don't think this will be the only hot spell of the summer, but with these parameters it may be the most severe. 

Models have formed up on an upgrade and downgrade over the last day or so.

The upgrade is that both the GFS and Euro now agree that the breakdown will not occur until Sunday.

The downgrading is that the core of the heat now looks to be Thurs-Sat albeit conditions look exceptional (pressure above 1020mb should relax humidity, uppers are 20C+).

.. 

This spell reminds me a bit of late July 2016, an otherwise poor summer which saw a 2 week hot spell.

...

The only thing to be wary of is that the core of the heat keeps pushing back, there is a danger that keeps happening.

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47 minutes ago, Geordiesnow said:

Sorry but i disagree, models are firming on Wednesday being the start of the hot and humid air for southern areas with this getting transfered northwards and westwards by Thursday. Places in Central and western parts could definately see the low 30s and localised affects like places in SW Scotland and NW Scotland could hit 30C also by Friday. 

Sorry disagree with that. Local forecast doesn't show hot weather here for the next five days and neither does the netweather forecast which was being quiet bullish. Towards next weekend there is a suggestion that it may get more widespread. Western areas and the far south are looking to be very warm and by Thursday a few places may wander over to the hot status.

Considering how much chopping and changing and the general drift away from very hot conditions and would say severe heat even from Thursday is unlikely.

 

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1 hour ago, summer blizzard said:

This spell reminds me a bit of late July 2016, an otherwise poor summer which saw a 2 week hot spell.

'poor summer' !?!...well might have been further north but here in the south, south/east there hasn't been a 'poor' summer since the Olympic summer of 2012, just the more unsettled month...

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BBC and meto have not got a clue regarding temperatures end of the week it won’t be firmed up until midweek just hope it does not get diluted and turn in to a non event for us

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8 minutes ago, clark3r said:

BBC and meto have not got a clue regarding temperatures end of the week it won’t be firmed up until midweek just hope it does not get diluted and turn in to a non event for us

I think the METO have more of a clue than the GFS though. If it does turn out to be mid 30s then it will be embarrassing. And vice versa for the METO!

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11 minutes ago, Snowyowl9 said:

There is certainly a downgrade in the heat and thunderstorms last day or 2,strange looking setup otherwise.

If the latest GFS is to be believed then no real heat wave next week, the odd hot spot but nothing widespread. it only shows Saturday as a hot day for many areas, then all gone by Sunday.

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I am really confused at the moment, but I feel maybe cloud and wind direction will not give us a heatwave hope I’m am wrong as the next few runs change

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Big back track on the latest beeb forecast now next weekend where some places maybe in the low 30's. A big change from the early one this morning.

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It looks like a comfortably warm week now up to Wednesday at least. The real heat has been pushed back. Good to see that this doesn't only happen to cold spells. lol

More high pressure nearby and fewer thundery showers.

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