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Southeast and East Anglia weather discussion

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Looking at the live radar and the tracking from the last hour or two looks like it's shifted east a little and central and south London (maybe kent) could be in for a few storms now. 

 

Although the met haven't pick up on this yet

Edited by Spraggyy

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Well, the sun was out at 7am. Now just meh.

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A little bit of sun this morning but nothing to write home about. heavy, murky and by jove as soon as i put some washing out we got a spot or two of rain. No breeze, but if i wave my arms around and do the hokey cokey the air feels cool. 

🙄

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Looks like another day of cloud humidity and possibly some rain, not sure about storms - what heavy stuff on the radar is on the continent again!

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it is damp and we have had a bit of rain here its very cloudy too - looks like the best part of the day was 6.30am to 8.30am - we just have changed cool damp cloudy days for warm damp cloudy days ...

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The breeze on beach pretty chilly light rain aswell

Edited by JK1

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Cloudy and raining here but so humid. If my headache is anything to go by there's going to be one hell of a storm later!

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Very muggy here on the outskirts of Maidstone, I'm keeping everything crossed for a slight shift East but not counting my chickens, some will have a very eventful evening and I hope you enjoy it....stay safe!

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Suns just came out at my work in Borough Green Kent I wasnt expecting this I wonder what the max temp will be today? Feels oppressive out there and especially driving a non air conditioned van! Where do we think the best of the storm action will be tonight? Last time NW Kent looked primed yet it ended up over east sussex& mid Kent eastwards. The warning zones I've seen cover this area but the graphics I saw on BBC earlier looked more like West London and extending Northwards?

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All of this feels very cool in comparison to Vegas where I have just returned from. Gutted to have missed the storms whilst I was away so hopefully will get something over the next few days.

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We're probably looking at the best chance of severe thunderstorms across the SE/EA than we've seen for a while.

CAPE isn't all that extreme but it's there, thankfully the storms will be developing across N France in a much higher CAPE/LI environment, the CAPE over the SE will only serve to allow storms to continue tracking northwards across the region 

1675944948_MLCAPE.thumb.png.fc7c33572daf962752d2d8c5d321205d.png

PWAT is moderately high so some areas have the potential to see A LOT of rainfall in a very short space of time, I think flooding could be a risk tonight more than anything else 

PWAT.thumb.png.fc8a0698787e7ec75f966a57f9299e81.png

Fairly steep lapse rates, not significantly strong over the UK but decent, almost supercell territory across the channel 

LAPSE.thumb.png.c6a7dc2f506196515f67742df727eb81.png

DLS is almost off the scale however! This should allow storms to remain organised, MCS very likely, supercell a low risk but a possibility given strong shear levels

DLS.thumb.png.8ee8f0b892c00863ba70e306454deb56.png

Moderate risk of severe (MCS) storms moving N from about 11pm-4am bringing frequent lightning (most likely elevated) gusty winds, torrential rain & hail. Small possibility given the shear profile of storms becoming supercellular in nature possibly producing funnel clouds/an isolated weak tornado, though rotational shear looks relatively weak and probably wouldn't be able to maintain a tornado for any real length of time.

1778270502_Twitter15_29_28.thumb.png.b18b8233fef3d1b660737bcfc50bd775.png

I've placed the main risk in a general line from Brighton to Norwich, SVR storms most likely in the black outlined line, a broad SLGT is to cover any slight differences in track compared with models given continued uncertainty, discounting any model that goes significantly West i.e Netwx-SR/GFS.

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Back home in Gravesend and its sunny here now also surely a good sign for later tonight!

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3 hours ago, Badgers01 said:

it is damp and we have had a bit of rain here its very cloudy too - looks like the best part of the day was 6.30am to 8.30am - we just have changed cool damp cloudy days for warm damp cloudy days ...

Indeed, super-squelchy humidity from Uxbridge to Epsom to Surbiton. Sitting in my office at home with neither fan nor air conditioning, it's sweltering. Outside it's pretty cloudy with the odd bit of sun poking through. The models as reported on here seem to be a little west and then a little east; fingers crossed we are all in the firing line for some stormy action overnight and into tomorrow. EDIT: I've just read Dan's excellent analysis, now that does sound good for everyone 👍

Edited by Reefseeker

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20 minutes ago, Reefseeker said:

 for everyone 👍

yes excellent summary Dan local  surface heating a head of it here in SE irrelevant so lets all stop saying the cloud won't help later as it doesn't matter -a great position to be in ...!!

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3 minutes ago, Daenerys said:

What are the chances I sleep through this?! 

I was thinking that - it’s a bit later than I would like to stay up for but still get enough sleep! Also, my spinning class will wipe me out. Looks like Dorking and Epsom could be in the sweet spot this time. Fingers crossed 🤞🏻 

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1 minute ago, FlightlessWings said:

I was thinking that - it’s a bit later than I would like to stay up for but still get enough sleep! Also, my spinning class will wipe me out. Looks like Dorking and Epsom could be in the sweet spot this time. Fingers crossed 🤞🏻 

I hope so!! 

 

Last time I did spinning, I couldnt walk properly the day after. You're a braver person than me!

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Stunning skies here.. Wow

IMG_20190624_181047.thumb.jpg.47d889e0edeab43d384b747f8adcdf8b.jpg

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14 minutes ago, Surrey said:

Stunning skies here.. Wow

IMG_20190624_181047.thumb.jpg.47d889e0edeab43d384b747f8adcdf8b.jpg

Mmmnn  not too stunning. Trouble with photos and the real world. 

Edited by Snipper

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Currently 23C in Shirley, Croydon

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2 minutes ago, Snipper said:

Mmmnn  not too stunning. Trouble with photos and the real world. 

Kill joy 

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Let's see how things go... Radar is our friend now 😀

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Just now, Surrey said:

Kill joy 

Realistic I am afraid. Fully aware  what looks good in the real world is less than impressive on a photo. I know taken plenty and got the reaction “isn’t it about time you did something else?”

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The sunshine has really struggled today, just the odd few minutes here and there with a lot of high level cloud. Very muggy with temperatures still reaching the mid-twenties.

Fingers crossed for tonight.

Edited by Captain Shortwave

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