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July 2019 CET & EWP forecast contests


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3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

To early to say, todays could be as low as 15.5 but then most of the rest could be as high as 18c or above, i am more likely to bust on the high side i must admit but not out of the question i could win or even bust on the low side.

Its just my opinion fwiw, this time next will tell if I have done my calculation correctly.(next 5 days and downward correction)

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Monthly Three players got it spot on this month. DiagonalRedLine, Leo97t and Quicksilver1989, with a further three players 0.1c out, B87, EdStone and seaside60. Seasonal Very close bet

The EWP came in provisionally at 72 mm.  Based on that, the top scores for July were score _ fcst __ forecaster 10.0 __ 72.0 __ Jeff C  9.8 ___73.0 __ Let It Snow!  9.6 ___71.

July confirmed as 17.5c https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/mly_cet_mean_sort.txt

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Sunny Sheffield down to 17.8C +1.4C above normal. Rainfall 72.2mm +126.7% of the monthly average. So suddenly well above average rainfall after some heavy overnight rain. Looks like Sheffield will finish between 17.6C and 17.8C.

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Meanwhile here not too far away we're on only 17.2mm for July and 85.6mm for the summer so far.

It just shows how it can vary over small distances.

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17.9c to the 27th

1.9c above the 61 to 90 average

1.3c above the 81 to 10 average

________________________________

Current high this month 18.0c to the 26th

Current low this month 15.3c to the 3rd

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17.9c to the 28th

1.9c above the 61 to 90 average

1.3c above the 81 to 10 average

________________________________

Current high this month 18.0c to the 26th

Current low this month 15.3c to the 3rd

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Heavy rains in parts of the north brought the EWP tracker to 53 mm (after 27 days) and likely around 60 mm after 28. Large parts of the south have had a lot less than this, but may get boosted by the incoming low. Looks like a finish near 70 mm is likely now. 

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On 28/07/2019 at 11:07, reef said:

Meanwhile here not too far away we're on only 17.2mm for July and 85.6mm for the summer so far.

It just shows how it can vary over small distances.

Holy stone the crows, was that bumped up yesterday though or not?

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17.9c to the 29th

1.9c above the 61 to 90 average

1.2c above the 81 to 10 average

________________________________

Current high this month 18.0c to the 26th

Current low this month 15.3c to the 3rd

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Sunny Sheffield at 17.8C, +1.3C above normal. Rainfall unchanged but a lot has fallen today. Outside change we may hit the 100mm mark again.

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On 29/07/2019 at 21:35, feb1991blizzard said:

Holy stone the crows, was that bumped up yesterday though or not?

Very little here on Sunday, Monday and Tuesday, though today has dumped over 18mm already.

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17.9c to the 30th

1.9c above the 61 to 90 average

1.2c above the 81 to 10 average

________________________________

Current high this month 18.0c to the 26th

Current low this month 15.3c to the 3rd

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3 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

17.9c to the 30th

1.9c above the 61 to 90 average

1.2c above the 81 to 10 average

________________________________

Current high this month 18.0c to the 26th

Current low this month 15.3c to the 3rd

Mid 17's looking likely now after adjustments?

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1 hour ago, Summer Sun said:

17.4 or 17.5 I would guess

Really would not be best pleased if it is 17.4c, that would be nearly half a degree correction, would be typical that when i only need a slight correction i get a big one and vice versa.

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17 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Really would not be best pleased if it is 17.4c, that would be nearly half a degree correction, would be typical that when i only need a slight correction i get a big one and vice versa.

I would, it will mean I was only 0.2C out with my guess! ?

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EWP had reached 59 mm after 29 days, 30th appears to have grid average of 12-15 mm and today likely another 5 or so, 75-80 mm is the revised estimate for where July ends up (more or less average after all the dry trending weather before the 20th). 

Thinking the month has 0.2 downward potential, unlikely to shift off 17.9 today (at 17.92 after 30 days) so 17.7 is my punt for final CET. 

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Sunny Sheffield still at 17.8C +1.2C above normal. Rainfall at 100mm 175.4% of the monthly average. So a wet summer coming up regardless of what August does.

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Just now, Man With Beard said:

A lot of people are getting good at this - I'm only 0.6C out but I'll be barely above halfway - well done to those who got it spot on!

Thats the problem, its so hard to climb the rankings, didn't you win it with only 2 bang on the nose guesses in 2016? -  I think the rain contest is easier, although the last few days knackered me for that so much better CET contest this month, not sure whether i would have rather fallen further behind in the CET contest and put myself slap bang in the front runners for rain with a good performance there or whether i would like to somehow have a great last bit of the year with the CET and somehow miraculously scrape top 10 in both.

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Some impressive records set for July!

New all time warmest CET maximum on record, with 34.1C on the 25th. This beats the previous joint record of 33.2C set in July 1976 and August 1990.
The 25th this July also equaled the warmest CET mean of 25.2C set back in 29th July 1948.

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47 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

A lot of people are getting good at this - I'm only 0.6C out but I'll be barely above halfway - well done to those who got it spot on!

I was only 0.3C out but have generally had a poor year.

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