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Model Output Discussion - The Start Of Summer


Message added by Paul

This thread = Models, models and more models
Please remember that this thread is for discussing the model output only. If you want to chat about the summer weather more generally, please use the Summer chat and moans thread.

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I think the lesson is here for those who were going on about locked in troughing for weeks.

Models can change very quickly.

Odd that the 6z ensembles are out before the op?

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1 minute ago, Leo97t said:

Temperatures struggling to reach 25C on the 06z - honestly quite a dissapointing turn since yesterday morning if the gfs is to be believed 

Give it a chance ?

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2 minutes ago, Leo97t said:

Temperatures struggling to reach 25C on the 06z - honestly quite a dissapointing turn since yesterday morning if the gfs is to be believed 

Struggling to reach 25c where? 

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2 minutes ago, Leo97t said:

Temperatures struggling to reach 25C on the 06z - honestly quite a dissapointing turn since yesterday morning if the gfs is to be believed 

It's out to T81.. relax a little lmao

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5 minutes ago, shaky said:

Dunno whether to take the gfs seriously anymore!!!its gone from heavy rain across england tuesday to nothing on the 06z!!

Exactly. Why anybody analyses these runs to the nth degree is a mystery!

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On a more positive note the gfs continues its backtrack at 108 hours!!heat incoming for the south east and low even more cut off to the southwest!!!this COULD be better than the 00z!!

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14 minutes ago, Leo97t said:

Temperatures struggling to reach 25C on the 06z - honestly quite a dissapointing turn since yesterday morning if the gfs is to be believed 

25c and high humidity would not be disappointing, following the abysmal start to summer..all of June so far!!?

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25 minutes ago, shaky said:

Nick good to have you back!!im not normally posting during the summer but these charts have defo got me out of hibernation aswell!!exceptional charts!!

Thanks thats very nice of you . I rarely appear in the summer months unless something outlandish pops up . The ECM is exceptional, waiting to see whether the GFS backtracks .

In terms of heat for the UK , the thunderstorms before the main heat might suppress things a little . Dry soil is much better for those looking for some really intense heat.

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8 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

I had to double check that, Karl.  That from a mean chart at that range is quite something.

Yes mike, for a mean it's sensational. .I'm sure there's much more of that to come!?

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The gfs looks like its doing one of those runs again where it dont know what to do or where to go!!but early on u can see it starting to comme towards the euros!!should be virtually there by the evening!!another hot run by the way take nothing away from it!!

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Still big differences in how GFS and ECM handle the cut-off low:

ECM1-120.thumb.gif.1332585891103002d519985c866928e2.gifgfs-0-126.thumb.png.3ba96013f47a0d2ce0c68a310fab08b4.png

ECM0-120.thumb.gif.6f77b516485c6b7762a0339452f7b405.gifgfs-1-126.thumb.png.fc25220946b6b51d78cca9c6a3ce8f36.png

This does impact how far west the higher uppers ingress and to the length of the hot spell and of course whether we get an Atlantic ridge at D10? The 06z another step back east of the pattern compared to the 0z.

So which is correct?

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Quite a difference again between the FV3 and the old GFS at T144, FV3 first:

image.thumb.jpg.4a8f38f706699e33fdbd78329b47dcef.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.e672c7e1e9052b73416357099cbd1b6f.jpg

image.thumb.jpg.a7755dfe48810ba69c26863214901cd7.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.397fd18095aa431d8aeb0bca4d9f33fd.jpg

There seems to be a trend now for the FV3 to leak that low, the older version more inclined to keep it in situ, and this has implications for the plume.  I'm mistrustful of the FV3, it may verify better on the NH stats but in terms of detail I'm not convinced, and of course this is the first time we've seen it in a summer context.

PS: Great to see our winter specialists back and on good form!!

Edited by Mike Poole
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