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Paul

Model Output Discussion - The Start Of Summer

Paul

This thread = Models, models and more models
Please remember that this thread is for discussing the model output only. If you want to chat about the summer weather more generally, please use the Summer chat and moans thread.

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Wonderful outputs again on the 6z   lovely summer weather  mid twenties widely  and other areas may well breach the 30c mark.  As a fair skinned man i hate the idea of melting under the mid to high thirties  so as it stands it looks perfect  for a late evening BQ  and a pint or two outdoors  whats not to like.   

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Gfs 06z nothing like the ecm!!winds coming from a hot  south south east direction from.sunday onwards and its hot for 6 days straight widely across england!!!hopefully remains the same on the 12z gfs and ukmo 12z!!then we can hope for ecm to join the party after a slight blip this morning!

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Posted (edited)

GEFS 06Z ensembles: t2mLondon.pngt850London.png

                                      prmslLondon.pngprcpLondon.png

Edited by Ed Stone

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6 minutes ago, shaky said:

Gfs 06z nothing like the ecm!!winds coming from a hot  south south east direction from.sunday onwards and its hot for 6 days straight widely across england!!!hopefully remains the same on the 12z gfs and ukmo 12z!!then we can hope for ecm to join the party after a slight blip this morning!

Yes, big set of 12z runs coming up!

Personally, I would love to see the heat extended into next weekend, and there are signs that this may happen.

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Posted (edited)

Wow oh wow you would of throught winter was here ? (Meaning the amount of forum activity 😉)

Anyways a hot spell/heatwave to is set to land on our shores soon enough and the models seem to wholely support that 

Besides the fact people are saying the upgrade/downgrade mess the fact is it will be hot so is the question of how hot will it be ? 

Edited by Skullzrulerz

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56 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

GEFS 06Z ensembles: t2mLondon.pngt850London.png

                                      prmslLondon.pngprcpLondon.png

Actually after seeing how much of an outlier the gfs 06z  between 30th of june and the 2nd of july am starting to think we could see an ecm like evolution on the 12z with the heat maybe either shortening or not getting as far north into the uk!!tense times comiñg up this evening!!

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Posted (edited)
6 minutes ago, shaky said:

Actually after seeing how much of an outlier the gfs 06z  between 30th of june and the 2nd of july am starting to think we could see an ecm like evolution on the 12z with the heat maybe either shortening or not getting as far north into the uk!!tense times comiñg up this evening!!

Hope it's a nationwide event, certainly plenty of support for it so far today, many of the 6z members show heat for scotland too..even the northern isles could become very warm next week with temperatures into the 20's celsius..rare for that far north.

Edited by Jon Snow

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Posted (edited)

The EPS mean anomaly this morning is indicating a movement towards the pattern it has been indicating for a few days and that is filling and moving our upper low north to eventually become a weak Atlantic trough replacing the current subtropical high ridge, whilst the new pattern is established

4-9.thumb.png.e8b1ba68d189741362368e7825c59659.png

 

Edited by knocker

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Skullzrulerz said:

Wow oh wow you would of throught winter was here ? (Meaning the amount of forum activity 😉)

Anyways a hot spell/heatwave to is set to land on our shores soon enough and the models seem to wholely support that 

Besides the fact people are saying the upgrade/downgrade mess the fact is it will be hot so is the question of how hot will it be ? 

Yup that is the question. Hot weather is nailed on now and no GFS ens spawn a feature in the North Sea on Tuesday. I expect that to go in the next ECM, not that it would have scuppered any hot upper temps heading our way but it would have posed an additional complication.

I think we can be sure the 20C isotherm will cross the UK which in itself is pretty rare in June. The next step is getting wednesday nailed down and that will probably tell us how extreme this plume will be. I expect the plume to last through Thursday too.

A fascinating set of 12z's coming up, how often have we found ourselves with such extreme summer output at this time range?

Edited by Quicksilver1989

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1 hour ago, weirpig said:

Wonderful outputs again on the 6z   lovely summer weather  mid twenties widely  and other areas may well breach the 30c mark.  As a fair skinned man i hate the idea of melting under the mid to high thirties  so as it stands it looks perfect  for a late evening BQ  and a pint or two outdoors  whats not to like.   

If you can avoid the severe thunderstorms next week, good luck with that!😜

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06z is good we are lucky to have warmth lasting that long in the UK. Originally it was meant to cool by friday but now warmth 25Cs stick around until following week.

Very blessed

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Keep thinking the afternoon runs start rolling out at 3.30pm. Damn BST!

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1 hour ago, knocker said:

The EPS mean anomaly this morning is indicating a movement towards the pattern it has been indicating for a few days and that is filling and moving our upper low north to eventually become a weak Atlantic trough replacing the current subtropical high ridge, whilst the new pattern is established

4-9.thumb.png.e8b1ba68d189741362368e7825c59659.png

 

but how can we get an easterly or northeasterly surface flow off that chart? which is what would be needed to peg next weeks temps down to the low-mid 20's c as many online predictive sites are showing.

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2 hours ago, Ed Stone said:

GEFS 06Z ensembles: t2mLondon.png

                                   

There is a vast difference here between the operational and ens in the near term when they should be pretty much identical. Suggests that possibly the values for London are approximated from different grid points limiting the usefulness.

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21 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

but how can we get an easterly or northeasterly surface flow off that chart? which is what would be needed to peg next weeks temps down to the low-mid 20's c as many online predictive sites are showing.

Yo can't get that sort of detail off of a NH five day anomaly chart and one should really not attempt to.

You can get an idea from the one day European but even then you have to estimate the position of the surface features

Here is one chart and two surface for the end of next week

frid.thumb.png.549ac780d61dd4b1ddfdb431d218023b.pngthurs.thumb.png.16b0cf170ae8cac98200b7e2902fc4fc.pngsurf.thumb.png.17af11482c073ba34a13cfebec1910b6.png

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Icon 12s still keen on keeping the core of the heat out East... Now is this going to be an emerging trend or not! Either way it's still some considerable warm up with high 20s easily in places... This may be what most of you would prefer, especially if accompanied by lots of sunshine!! So let's see where GFS and ukmo take this.. 

icon-1-102.png

icon-1-120.png

icon-1-144.png

icon-1-162.png

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Not a brilliant start from the ICON. Hope it's not a trend.

2 minutes ago, Ross Andrew Hemphill said:

The low is ever so slightly further west at +42 on the GFS, and a little weaker 

It's going to be one of those runs where we start looking for tiny differences at short range. Reminds me of winter!

Wish the ICON had kept the plume further west, but it has been consistent with keeping it further east. Then again, it is the ICON . . .

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Posted (edited)
11 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

Not a brilliant start from the ICON. Hope it's not a trend.

Wish the ICON had kept the plume further west, but it has been consistent with keeping it further east. Then again, it is the ICON . . .

Indeed, iconic it ain't😉

Whether the 12z runs end up a bit further west, east or in the middle we are in for a very warm / hot humid potentially thundery spell next week!👍

Edited by Jon Snow

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8 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

Not a brilliant start from the ICON. Hope it's not a trend.

It's going to be one of those runs where we start looking for tiny differences at short range. Reminds me of winter!

Wish the ICON had kept the plume further west, but it has been consistent with keeping it further east. Then again, it is the ICON . . .

It's still warm, don't worry. I would say more pleasant than what the GFS is forecasting.

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3 minutes ago, AppleUK 123 said:

It's still warm, don't worry. I would say more pleasant than what the GFS is forecasting.

True, but when something potentially historic is afoot . . .

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13 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

Not a brilliant start from the ICON. Hope it's not a trend.

It's going to be one of those runs where we start looking for tiny differences at short range. Reminds me of winter!

Wish the ICON had kept the plume further west, but it has been consistent with keeping it further east. Then again, it is the ICON . . .

Maybe it's because the Icon is a German model and the Germans are wanting to nick the heat off us and claim their June temp record. In all honesty it makes great model watching seeing all these subtle changes and wind directions making all the difference with the temperatures forecast 

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12Z GFS for Tuesday made my heart jump a little when it went from 26,27c'S to 18,19c.    just model adjusting to the low , keep faith.

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