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Model Output Discussion - The Start Of Summer


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This thread = Models, models and more models
Please remember that this thread is for discussing the model output only. If you want to chat about the summer weather more generally, please use the Summer chat and moans thread.

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5 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

It's actually right on the raw data, the N Sea flow particularly strong that day - but of course the actual max is likely to be 3C or so higher than the raw judging by past experience. 

Thursday is the particularly unusual day on the ECM temperature charts though, all other days are hotter. 

Whats the temps looking like more widely across england mate for next week?

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1 minute ago, Iceaxecrampon said:

From Tuesday some serious Pyrotechnics incoming next week.

ukcapeli.thumb.png.0c11af50930f867e97996e4950f5d34f.png

2.thumb.png.604622316b49e232d0e5ea416ba02ae9.png

3.thumb.png.a40e4a17db9c30faff7734ccbe13276a.png

As other posters have mentioned, CAPE means little if the cap in place due to the dry air at higher levels cannot be eroded.

I'm very grateful for the incoming heat, its going to be an experience - but i'm getting a little worried that after enduring a full working week of stifling temperatures, it's all going to fizzle out with a whimper and some drizzle:(

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5 minutes ago, Azazel said:

As other posters have mentioned, CAPE means little if the cap in place due to the dry air at higher levels cannot be eroded.

I'm very grateful for the incoming heat, its going to be an experience - but i'm getting a little worried that after enduring a full working week of stifling temperatures, it's all going to fizzle out with a whimper and some drizzle:(

Maybe but what heat!

It's all to play for - I'll be keeping off the tops for sure.

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17 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

Yes, but let's see what happens on the 12z runs. I always get nervous when a less favourable run appears on the big three, because it's often the start of the downgrades!

But it is consistent with both this morning's and last night's mean:

EDH0-168.GIF?21-12

EDH0-192.GIF?12

All moot though, as we are still well out of the range of the shape and position of the Biscay cut-off low being modelled with certainty. 

I wouldn't worry anyway, it's going to be very warm/hot (for the south at least), and an order of magnitude better than what has gone before.

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Before posting today's GEFS 00Z ensembles, I thought I'd mention the tail-end of the run, as it may suggest (now that the HLB signal has all but gone) an interesting recurring weather-pattern -- of repeated thundery outbreaks -- as per the advice from the Teleconnectionists?:oldgrin:

h850t850eu.png  h500slp.png

Anywho, back to the here-and-now-ish:

image.thumb.png.8e511d4025d4659655bd394e6fb3c5b9.png  t850London.png

prmslLondon.png  prcpLondon.png

So, whatever the long-term holds, we do have an eventful week's model-watching ahead of us!:shok:

Edited by Ed Stone
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18 minutes ago, shaky said:

Whats the temps looking like more widely across england mate for next week?

On the ECM 00Z, the hottest day for England as a whole is Friday, with 27-30C likely over a large area IMO. 

But this morning's differences show why it's not going to be worth analyzing temperatures very closely until T120 at the earliest, and maybe even T72 - this is particularly true in extreme conditions. I'm posting temps at the moment for interest only, not as a serious forecast ?

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15 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

On the ECM 00Z, the hottest day for England as a whole is Friday, with 27-30C likely over a large area IMO. 

But this morning's differences show why it's not going to be worth analyzing temperatures very closely until T120 at the earliest, and maybe even T72 - this is particularly true in extreme conditions. I'm posting temps at the moment for interest only, not as a serious forecast ?

Ecm mean is slightly better with the plume slightly further north at 144 hours!!over to the gfs 06z for another scorcher☀️??

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Having delved deeper into how ECM compares with other modelling, it's certainly one of the most 'North Sea - influenced' solutions out there. It's kind of impressive how much fresh air it manages to scoop up and send our way.

As extreme as it is in that sense, its existence isn't helpful for decision making (do I look for a good quality cooling fan, for example...); confidence on how long the high impact heat affects us for - and how widely that happens across the UK - is lower than it could have been this morning.

 

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Just a quick word this morning. The ECM shows a thundery low crossing the UK and this suppresses maximums. The low also affects behaviour of the other low pressure to the SW and the run is messier. Although the ECM doesn't show it, a feature could get stuck in the North Sea or the UK which in turn could cut off the supply of really high uppers.

image.thumb.png.25d88d440cbc3d8d29b0532e36919680.pngimage.thumb.png.1ee89967055b6621872f8e8fe8458cc5.png 

GFS on the other hand is much cleaner and therefore by Wednesday we get the really hot uppers across a larger area of the UK with relative ease.

image.thumb.png.5f8a46e1b0cc303c55bea2d181b97d18.pngimage.thumb.png.8431b54d5d91d7fa1be17b4d3789d9ec.png 

These little nuances won't be resolved to T72-T96 so I'm still being cautious about the really hot uppers later next week... for now.

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24 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

Just a quick word this morning. The ECM shows a thundery low crossing the UK and this suppresses maximums. The low also affects behaviour of the other low pressure to the SW and the run is messier. Although the ECM doesn't show it, a feature could get stuck in the North Sea or the UK which in turn could cut off the supply of really high uppers.

image.thumb.png.25d88d440cbc3d8d29b0532e36919680.pngimage.thumb.png.1ee89967055b6621872f8e8fe8458cc5.png 

GFS on the other hand is much cleaner and therefore by Wednesday we get the really hot uppers across a larger area of the UK with relative ease.

image.thumb.png.5f8a46e1b0cc303c55bea2d181b97d18.pngimage.thumb.png.8431b54d5d91d7fa1be17b4d3789d9ec.png 

These little nuances won't be resolved to T72-T96 so I'm still being cautious about the really hot uppers later next week... for now.

I've got a feeling that we are facing a massive downgrade in the 12Z GFS and it will turn into just a brief warm rather than hot spell. No support from ECMWF of the extreme GFS values.  I'm feeling down and very pessimistic now

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The Ecm 00z ensemble mean is again fantastic for heat lovers, almost until the end of the run..FAN-TASTIC and you will need a fan next week..in the south at least!!???

EDM0-72.gif

EDM0-96.gif

EDM1-96.gif

EDM0-120.gif

EDM1-120.gif

EDM0-144.gif

EDM0-168.gif

EDM1-168.gif

EDM0-192.gif

EDM1-192.gif

EDM0-216.gif

EDM1-216.gif

Edited by Jon Snow
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33 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

Just a quick word this morning. The ECM shows a thundery low crossing the UK and this suppresses maximums. The low also affects behaviour of the other low pressure to the SW and the run is messier. Although the ECM doesn't show it, a feature could get stuck in the North Sea or the UK which in turn could cut off the supply of really high uppers.

image.thumb.png.25d88d440cbc3d8d29b0532e36919680.pngimage.thumb.png.1ee89967055b6621872f8e8fe8458cc5.png 

GFS on the other hand is much cleaner and therefore by Wednesday we get the really hot uppers across a larger area of the UK with relative ease.

image.thumb.png.5f8a46e1b0cc303c55bea2d181b97d18.pngimage.thumb.png.8431b54d5d91d7fa1be17b4d3789d9ec.png 

These little nuances won't be resolved to T72-T96 so I'm still being cautious about the really hot uppers later next week... for now.

Yep, for those who are looking for the 20c upper air temp to reach the UK , that is far from guranteed as the plume could easily end up further eastwards but either way its going to warm up though. Its ashame the set up is looking quite cloudy and complicated, much prefer the 3 fine days then a thunderstorm outlook.

As we know the details will vary from run to run so just small differences in orientation could make  huge differences for some areas.

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2 minutes ago, Ramp said:

You are feeling down about the thought of a downgrade that hasn’t even been modelled yet never mind happened?

 

 

Yes the ECMWF is still a fantastic run and 2m temps are being estimated to some extent IMO. I still think an intense plume is the favoured scenario, however we want the thundery feature to form in the Irish Sea rather then the North Sea just to ensure the really hot uppers aren't cut off.

I think we will see a halfway house between ECM and GFS.

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Guessing temperatures this far out is all conjecture really. The core of the heat is still 5 days away, and as others have already stated, very subtle shifts in the airmass and surface level wind direction will mean the difference between high 20s or low to mid 30s maxima. Amazing that Paris has a chance of hitting 40c by the middle of next week - I've seen that 37.6c is the June maximum there, which will surely go.

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4 minutes ago, Team Jo said:

If your post is more to do with a funny feeling in your tummy rather than from actual model output/data, then you’re probably best to drop into the model moans/general summer chat threads.

ditto if you are searching every single frame for a hint of a downgrade... just let it unfold....! Don’t get sucked in to analysing every single run. Compare like with like... don’t get hung up on the lack of record breaking temps.

be cool! Literally... be cool.

Seeing a downgrade of CAPE values in GFS 06Z for Monday.

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Well the GFS is not interested in any North Sea features! As you were...

image.thumb.png.cbe9be06193bb8e3dcf909d58b4ac506.png

Monday is looking a bit more unsettled in the morning over NE areas, probably a bit more cloud associated with that rain on sunday night holding back CAPE values a bit.

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3 minutes ago, sausage said:

hot still but not as hot for sometging special like france!! just so close. i think i have to agree that the downgrades are now occuring thick n fast. i guess the bbc n meto r spot on with temps only at 20/-21 -23c. shame really 

I appreciate this isn't quite as hot as the GFS 00Z but can we really be taking about downgrades when uppers are still widely 16C-22C??

gfs-1-156.png?6

Actually, forget that - it's hotter. This is the first time we've seen 34C on the GFS raw data - perhaps ever!! 

156-582UK.GIF?21-6

Edited by Man With Beard
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26 minutes ago, sausage said:

this post has been removed

Variations on a theme is all I'm seeing. GFS 6z is more similar to the ECM 0z.

Edited by Blessed Weather
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